Australian Severe Weather Forum

I am considering going for a chase on wed somewhere near coonabarabran but the CAPE doesnt look too hot  , thoughts on it anyone?

The area between Coonabarabran and Tamworth and north of there looks interesting. Shear is pretty nice, but one thing to check will be how much high cloud there is in the morning before setting out - though it may be fine.

MB

Hi Nick and Michael,

I would place yourself within range of Tamworth even Gunnedah if required. Or wherever there is a little sunshine and heating. Wind shear is decent and if there is some heating CAPE will be higher than forecast.

I won't be able to chase - have work commitments and a dinner.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Nick,

Make that closer to Dunedoo. The 06Z run changed the whole positioning and aspect of the forecast conditions. Positioning is further south  Dunedoo to Mudgee etc and the winds from 850hPa from the east are in the region Sydney to Blue Mountains. I would anticipate you would not require to go too far west.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

The cloud has me procrastinating about a chase today, another 30 mins it will too late to launch from here anyway. I like the shear, I like the coastal drizzle setup, but I wish there was sunshine in the Mudgee/Gulgong area.

It looks like there were a few nice storms this afternoon east of Dunnedoo and south east of Mudgee. One cell in particular looked nice on the Newcastle 256 Radar forming south of Mudgee and moving all the way over Rylstone towards Muswellbrook before dying. Why I say "looked nice" is due to radar showing this cell moving more NE than other activity. Shear was certainly enough to support sustained cells throughout the afternoon.

If I didnt have to work today I would have headed out myself. Thinking about a consolation chase tomorrow however will wait to see what the sat pic looks like in the morning before heading out. Shear is another concern with a drop in wind speeds at all levels.

Perfect target - difficult to chase some of the areas.

Glad that it was verified though. Thanks James.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Quite of a bit of lightning on tracker this morning in the NWS and NT regions. It's mostly near Barraba, but also some near Inverell to Glen Innes.  Would not expect this to last much longer. Also some action offshore E and NE of Sydney.

Hi Michael,

I would not be surprised to see the odd cell backbuild today.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Dominant cell on radar right now is hitting Armidale. Red-brown core on radar so would not be surprised to hear reports of large hail from this north moving cell.

0330z VIS:

Armidale Airport had a wind gust to 82km/h at 3.09pm and temp dropped from 23 to 12 degrees. Large hail confirmed in the town via ABC radio - "bigger than golf balls in the east of the town, up to a foot deep in places". (abc radio report). broken windows and damage reported.

Some hail photos by "Bravo Brad" from Armidale who posted on the WZ forums:

http://www.bravobrad.com/images/hail/1.jpg
http://www.bravobrad.com/images/hail/2.jpg
http://www.bravobrad.com/images/hail/3.jpg
http://www.bravobrad.com/images/hail/4.jpg

GFS 06z analysis sure improved the instability to more like reality - was not like this on the forecasts



Williamtown sounding yesterday morning:

Some more weather data for the Armidale hailstorm

Grafton 128km scale radar loop 0300 to 0630z:

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/radar/200612210630.gif

Grafton 256km scale radar loop 0100 to 0700z:

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/radar/200612210700.gif

MODIS 500m resolution satpic at 0330z:



And 1km VIS loop 0030 to 0630z

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/satpics/20061221loop.gif

I headed out yesterday with the intentions of starting in the Coolah region and moving nearby should activity take off. However after some chaser convergance I changed my plans to be near Quirindi. In hindsight I should have stuck with my initial area as the cell near Dunedoo and another further south towards Mudgee would have been nice to watch.

We watched a few different cells over the Northern Tablelands throughout the afternoon from our vantage point near Quirindi. Certainly nice boiling updraughts that had quite a bit of height to them. A cell developed over Coolah Tops however their was a lack of inflow support and slowly the updraft died. Eventually made our way towards Willow Tree to watch the back end develop of a complex near Nundle late afternoon. The line was very lightning active and the 16c outflow winds were causing further bases to form on the western edge where the air temp was hovering around 28c. The inside of one particular updraft had a green tinge so it was decided we should "explore" underneath it to see what we could find. When the base started sucking up a huge amount of scud underneath (almost to ground level) I knew it was going to get interesting. Driving through the rain curtain the rain rates became phenomenal. Visibility dropped to a few metres ahead and the hills surrounding Nundle were covered in streams of running water. There was a barrage of close Cg's all round the township and soon the roads were filling up with overflowing water. Time to get out!

A good afternoon's chase which might turn into the last one for this year. I would put pictures up however SSC is going through a wee upgrade at the moment so wont be able to for another week or two.

Some great photo's there Michael, looks like a scene from winter. Was anyone chasing up there?

On another note I have been quite amused at GFS poor attemps at progging temps. You think with time it would start to do a better job however obivously not.

James