Author Topic: East Coast Low: Gales, Heavy Rain and Snow 25 to 29 June 2007  (Read 13042 times)

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Offline Michael Bath

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All models have been tipping yet another ECL to form off the NSW coast - most likely bombing overnight Tuesday.  Heavy rains and gales are again likely along the NSW coast south of the Hunter and also Northeast Victoria.

There's certainly a good chance of snow later on Wednesday for parts of the Central and Northern Tablelands. TWC model indicates some snow into Thursday as well but further north to the Queensland border.  Of course this depends on where and when the next ECL develops.

Interesting to see the NSW BoM have a mention on snow for the tablelands later Wednesday.

Michael
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Offline Michael Bath

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RE: East Coast Low: Gales, Heavy Rain and Snow 25 to 29 June 2007
« Reply #1 on: 27 June 2007, 01:57:50 AM »
Latest (12z) model output suggest the coastal trough will develop two low pressure areas today - one off the North Coast and another off the South Coast. The southern low will dominate and deepen rapidly during Wednesday before weakening and edging northeast on Thursday.

Looks like it is going to be very wet and windy in Sydney and south if this scenario comes off ! TWC has the low centred ON Sydney tomorrow evening.

Meanwhile, the cold pool will move through Victoria and NSW bringing the chance of snowfalls to the Central and Northern tablelands, and possibly to the Granite Belt of Southeast Queensland. Non-alpine snow appears likely from Wednesday afternoon onwards.

Of course, the ski fields should do very well from this system.
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SnowMac

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RE: East Coast Low: Gales, Heavy Rain and Snow 25 to 29 June 2007
« Reply #2 on: 27 June 2007, 02:19:40 AM »
Hi Michael and All  ;D

Again sleet possible on the granite belt and in the forecast for Toowoomba!!

TWC model is impressive for the NT and Granite belt with 530 over the Northern Tablelands. Pretty amazing this month has been so far.

Jeff Brislane

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RE: East Coast Low: Gales, Heavy Rain and Snow 25 to 29 June 2007
« Reply #3 on: 27 June 2007, 01:24:50 PM »
I would judge by the current observations that snow is falling along the highest parts of the Central Tablelands as I type. Temp at Orange is just above 2 with precip falling so it's likely there will be snow there as well by morning. Tomorrow looks very promising for good acumulations of snow down to about 1100 meters as long as the air aloft stays very cold as is forcast. Initially the BoM were thinking that warmer air brought in by the low would be a problem but it's looking more likely that the lows position could be favourable for the whole Tablelands.

Jeff.

Offline Jimmy Deguara

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RE: East Coast Low: Gales, Heavy Rain and Snow 25 to 29 June 2007
« Reply #4 on: 27 June 2007, 04:14:57 PM »
Yes Jeff,

It is touch and go for tomorrow. However, if i was able to, I think heading out there would be a good move. It is a during the week chase and there is plenty of moisture there. Currently, I can only see good snow falls in the region on the higher peaks of the Central Tablelands and possibly some on the higher peaks further north. The southern ranges of course is the pick for me - we'll be hearing from that region of course.

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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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RE: East Coast Low: Gales, Heavy Rain and Snow 25 to 29 June 2007
« Reply #5 on: 28 June 2007, 01:52:17 AM »
Not much has changed from the 00Z GFS data to the 12Z data. It seems there is potential for late rain in Sydney as the cloud swirls around the western end of the low pressure system.

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Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Michael Bath

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RE: East Coast Low: Gales, Heavy Rain and Snow 25 to 29 June 2007
« Reply #6 on: 28 June 2007, 06:31:22 AM »
Latest TWC output has cold enough air on the Northern Tablelands from about now till Thursday afternoon for snow on the higher ground. 700hPA RH suggests a precipitation max will arrive late morning Thursday from the southwest so it will be interesting to see if much snow can fall during the day - really depends if the air warms too much. A couple of cm is likely tonight so could end up with a decent cover in some places. At this stage it looks good for overcast conditions all day Thursday.

I will head up tomorrow morning once I check the morning model output and satpics.

btw - ended up with 32mm from this system in 24 hours 8pm Mon to 8pm Tues, on top of the 19mm over the weekend.

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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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RE: East Coast Low: Gales, Heavy Rain and Snow 25 to 29 June 2007
« Reply #7 on: 28 June 2007, 11:08:18 AM »
Had a chat with Nick Moir and he confirms it was snowing quite heavily at Oberon at the time 3pm. Shooters Hill had some snow showers earlier also.

Nick will post pics once he has the chance. He will remain there overnight.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline nmoir

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RE: East Coast Low: Gales, Heavy Rain and Snow 25 to 29 June 2007
« Reply #8 on: 28 June 2007, 02:03:38 PM »
has been snowing steadily since about 1pm in oberon with heavier falls around shooters hill and black springs , a vid from me will be up on smh.com.au soon and i will link it when its up , and here are a couple of pix from this arvo. currently it has stopped snowing but hoping i will be a big white blanket for me tomorrow as i am staying at the "big trout" in oberon

all pix are (c) 2007 Nick Moir , The Sydney Morning Herald and are for viewing only on this site
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Offline nmoir

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RE: East Coast Low: Gales, Heavy Rain and Snow 25 to 29 June 2007
« Reply #9 on: 28 June 2007, 03:05:22 PM »
here is the news story with video link , i shot most of this in oberon , but the pine tree bits are from near shooters hill , 20km sth
Snow fell creating some amazing pictures in the NSW town of Oberon.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/a-winter-wonderland/2007/06/27/1182623992497.html

and some shots taken around oberon and also some stuff by Brendan Esposito in Crookwell

http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/2007/06/27/1182623987762.html
« Last Edit: 29 June 2007, 05:31:02 AM by nmoir »
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Offline David Brodrick

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RE: East Coast Low: Gales, Heavy Rain and Snow 25 to 29 June 2007
« Reply #10 on: 29 June 2007, 06:36:15 AM »
NPWS rangers report it is snowing on Mt Kaputar at the moment. We might go up for a look this arvo and get some photos.

Cheers,
  Dave

Offline Michael Bath

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RE: East Coast Low: Gales, Heavy Rain and Snow 25 to 29 June 2007
« Reply #11 on: 29 June 2007, 01:40:20 PM »
Left home at 9am after my morning work and arrived Tenterfield just after 11am. Drizzle had set in about 30km northeast of town and the temp had fallen to about 4.5C in town.  Decided it was worth a quick look at Mt McKenzie 9km southwest of Tenterfield. Snowflakes started with the temp just under 3C and elevation about 1100m (summit is 1280m). I didn't stick around as the higher ground to the south was more favourable today and it was already late morning.

Proceeded south along the New England Highway with continuous precipitation occurring. Temp varied between 3.5 and 4.5 most of the way to Glen Innes where some sleet started to fall. There was no sign of the earlier snowfalls in Glen Innes.

Drove the 30ks or so south to the Ben Lomond area where light snow was covering the higher ground. Along Inn Road was the best of the snow with a 2-3cm accumulation over the accessible ground. Snow set in from this time (12.30pm) and continued for the next 1.5 hours while I was in the area. Temp was now varying between 1 to 1.5C.







I had a look around Ben Lomond village where the snow cover was becoming patchy. The falling snow was getting pretty wet by this stage but still beautiful to see.





Could not stick around to see what the evening would bring, but had a great day on the tablelands !
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Offline David Brodrick

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RE: East Coast Low: Gales, Heavy Rain and Snow 25 to 29 June 2007
« Reply #12 on: 29 June 2007, 03:53:49 PM »
Great photos Michael. We near froze our hands off trying to build a snow man - whoever built the one in your photo did very very well!

Here's our photos from today. In places the snow depth exceeded 10cm on Mt Kaputar.
http://narrabriweather.net/events/Snow09June2007.html

Regards,
  Dave

Offline Michael Bath

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RE: East Coast Low: Gales, Heavy Rain and Snow 25 to 29 June 2007
« Reply #13 on: 30 June 2007, 01:19:26 AM »
Terrific photos of the latest snow event David and Scott. As soon as I saw the early satpics and the Narrabri obs yesterday morning, I thought Kaputar would be in for another treat. Glad you were able to verify this.

One day I'd love to see the snow there but I guess that is unlikely given how long it takes to get there from here and the short lead time to be sure there will be a decent fall.  Might just have to plan a bushwalking trip there in mid winter and get lucky !

Yes - your hands soon freeze with snow play. Fortunately the kids at that house had done the work already.

Michael
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Offline James

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Re: East Coast Low: Gales, Heavy Rain and Snow 25 to 29 June 2007
« Reply #14 on: 30 June 2007, 05:54:55 AM »
Great photo's Michael, David and Scott! I have to agree with your sentiments about snow on Kaputar. I was up there around 4 weeks ago camping and would have loved to have seen snow falling. I was amazed at how high the summit really is. The views from the top are simply breathtaking. Looking west across the Piliga, I had visions of Supercells rolling across the plains towards Narrabri!

Yesterday's trip to the Oberon area certainly far surpassed my expectations I had when I got out of bed at 5am that morning! Picked up Dann at 6am and headed straight towards the Oberon Road turn off at Hartley. The sunrise was just too good to resist thanks to the leading edge of the ECL cloud band moving north over us. A few snaps later and the clear calm conditions changed as we got in the car and enetered Oberon. Around 5 - 10cm of snow had covered the town and the sky had turned grey. Light rain and sleet was falling in town so we knew we had to get somewhere higher. We headed down the old Abercrombie Road from Oberon thinking that this was the way to Shooters Hill (Note to self - take a map when chasing). Around 10 minutes into the journey, Dann politely informed me that we were in fact on the wrong road. Hindsight would show that this accidental move was probably the best of the day.

We had come too far to turn around and with sleet still falling we looked for a road that seemed to head to higher ground. Thats when we saw the turn off to Mozart. Memories of my visit to Mozarts house in a snow filled Vienna came flooding back. I sarcastically thought to myself "Surely it has to be a sign".

Around 1 to 2kms on this road, Dann and I found what we were looking for. A rise in elevation turning the wet sleet into snow flakes. Even better was the Vulcan State Forest covered in snow , beckoning for us to venture inside and explore. Over the next 4 hours we did that with constant snow falling ranging in small wet flakes to some extremely large and fluffy flakes. I had only been expecting to see snow on the ground so the snow falling from above was an added bonus. Meet up with Matt Smith, Andrew Newton and Cheryl later on and continued exploring the wonderful snowy sights and roads this forest had to offer.





A great chase made even better by the constant snow fall. Just that 100m difference in altitude seemed to make all the difference. This was also the first time I had taken the Forester on some serious snow driving and all I can say is .. wow!

I dont think I can remember such an active snow year for the NSW ranges before.

More images of the day can be found at http://sydneystormchasers.com/image/tid/56

James