[Index]
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary August 2004
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary August 2004 [Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett] |
MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
AUGUST, 2004
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
*************************************************************************
SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION
The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers
will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
I wanted to include them. After a couple of months, I will move this
note to the ending section of the summary.
(1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
---------------------------------------
Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
retrieved from the following FTP site:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>
Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
messages may be found at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>
Links are also included to websites with further information about the
U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
craft Operations Center.
(2) Archived Advisories
-----------------------
All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an
example), the archived products can be found at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>
Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>
I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.
(3) Satellite Imagery
---------------------
Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The
links are:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is
located in the lower left portion of the screen.
I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.
*************************************************************************
AUGUST HIGHLIGHTS
--> Destructive hurricane strikes southwestern Florida communities
--> Large severe hurricane strikes Bahamas and southeastern Florida
--> China struck by two typhoons--one very deadly
--> Two intense typhoons pass through Marianas en route to Japan
--> Typhoon grazes southeastern South Korea
*************************************************************************
***** Feature of the Month for August *****
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES
2004 - 2005 SEASON
and
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES
TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the AUSTRALIAN REGION
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology maintains three Tropical
Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWC): Perth, Western Australia; Darwin,
Northern Territory; and Brisbane, Queensland. Each centre is allotted
a separate list of tropical cyclone names for tropical cyclones forming
within its area of responsibility (AOR). In addition a TCWC located at
Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea (PNG)--a former Australian territory--
maintains a list of native names to assign to the very rare tropical
cyclones which form within its AOR.
The AORs of the respective centres are:
(1) Perth - 125E westward to 90E and south of 10S. Currently, and for
at least the next few years, the Perth TCWC will issue warnings for
any systems north of 10S and south and west of the Indonesian islands.
(2) Darwin - 125E eastward to 138E and extending northward to the
equator. There is a little irregularity with the eastern border
in the Gulf of Carpentaria. The Darwin TCWC issues High Seas
Warnings for the entire Gulf of Carpentaria, but Brisbane issues
Tropical Cyclone Advices and names cyclones in the eastern portion
of the Gulf. Also, currently, and for at least the next few years,
the Darwin TCWC will issue warnings for any systems west of 125E
and within the Indonesian archipelago in the Banda, Flores, and
Java Seas.
(3) Brisbane - 138E eastward to 160E and generally south of 10S. The
northern border with the Port Moresby AOR is somewhat irregular.
(4) Port Moresby, PNG - immediate vicinity of the island of New Guinea
and eastward to 160E generally north of 10S although the southern
border is somewhat irregular.
Names for the 2004-2005 season (** indicates name has already been
assigned):
Perth Darwin Brisbane Port Moresby
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Phoebe ** George Harvey Guba
Raymond Helen Ingrid Ila
Sally Ira Jim Kama
Tim Jasmine Kate Matere
Vivienne Kim Larry Rowe
Willy Laura Monica Tako
Adeline Matt Nelson
Bertie Narelle Odette
Clare Oswald Pierre
Daryl Penny Rebecca
Emma Sandy
Floyd Tania
Glenda Vernon
Hubert Wendy
Isobel Alfred
TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
and the SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN
The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) at Nadi, Fiji, has
tropical cyclone warning responsibility for the South Pacific east of
160E and from the equator to 25S. The Meteorological Service of New
Zealand at Wellington has warning responsibility for waters south of
25S, but almost all tropical cyclones in this basin form north of 25S.
When a rare cyclone forms in the Wellington area of responsibility
(AOR), it usually will be assigned a name from the Fiji list (such as
was done for Tropical Cyclone Gita in February, 1999.)
Tropical cyclone warning responsibility for South Indian waters west
of 90E are shared by several TCWCs. The Regional Specialty
Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the region is the office of Meteo
France on the island of La Reunion. However, following a long-standing
practice, the sub-regional centres at Mauritius and Madagascar share
the responsibility for actually naming tropical storms with Mauritius
naming systems east of 55E and Madagascar covering the area west of
55E. RSMC La Reunion issues warnings for the basin independently of
these sub-regional centres, but only advises regarding when or when not
to assign a name to a developing cyclone.
Names for the 2004-2005 season (** indicates name has already been
assigned):
Southwest Indian South Pacific
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Arola ** Neddy Judy Urmil
Bento ** Ouledi Kerry Vaianu
Chambo Patricia Lola Wati
Daren Qiqita Meena Xavier
Ernest Ramon Nancy Yani
Felapi Sopani Olaf Zita
Gerard Tina Percy Arthur
Hennie Ula Rae Becky
Isang Vera Sheila Cliff
Juliet Willem Tam Daman
Kalo Xaoka
Lilian Yelda
Madi Zuze
TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
Several years ago a proposal was made at a meeting of the WMO/ESCAP
Tropical Cyclone Committee to study the possibility of assigning names
to the tropical cyclones of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. It
took a few years to work out all the details and secure the consent of
all the nations involved as well as to draft and approve a set of names,
but by the summer of 2004 all the hurdles had been overcome and formal
naming of tropical cyclones in this basin was set to begin on an
experimental basis in September, 2004. IMD didn't have long to wait
to assign the first name--Severe Cyclonic Storm Onil formed very early
in October in the Arabian Sea.
The procedure for assigning names in the North Indian Ocean is
similar to that in place for the Western North Pacific basin. Eight
countries--Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan,
Sri Lanka, Thailand--contributed eight names each. The names are
arranged in eight columns with the nations listed in alphabetical
order. All the names in Column One will be used, followed by the
names in Column Two, etc.
The first eight names to be allotted in the North Indian Ocean basin
are (** indicates name has already been assigned):
Onil ** (Bangladesh)
Agni ** (India)
Hibaru (Maldives)
Pyarr (Myanmar)
Baaz (Oman)
Fanoos (Pakistan)
Mala (Sri Lanka)
Mukda (Thailand)
***********************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for August: 4 tropical storms
1 hurricane
3 intense hurricanes
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida:
discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather
outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some
additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly
summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on
TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a
1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted.
An interesting article discussing the atmospheric circulation
patterns which led to the incredibly active and destructive Atlantic
hurricane season, as well as information on the effects of individual
cyclones, can be found on CSU's atmospheric sciences website at the
following URL:
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2004/oct2004/>
Atlantic Tropical Activity for August
-------------------------------------
Following a stormless June and July, tropical cyclone activity
exploded in August to produce the most active month of August on record.
The average statistics for August (based on 1950-2003) are: 2.7 NS,
1.5 H, and 0.6 IH with an NTC of 24%. During August, 2004, a record
eight tropical storms developed with four reaching hurricane intensity.
Three of the hurricanes became intense hurricanes (Category 3 or higher
on the Saffir/Simpson scale), and the NTC for August was a staggering
84%. And all of the cyclones except Hurricane Danielle had an impact on
land. Hurricane Alex passed a scant 10 miles off Cape Hatteras while
a Category 2 hurricane, and later reached Category 3 status north of the
38th parallel while moving northeastward over the warm Gulf Stream waters
south of the Canadian Maritimes. Tropical Storm Bonnie formed in the
Gulf of Mexico and made landfall near St. Marks, FL, while Hurricane
Charley was gathering steam in the Caribbean. Charley struck western
Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane, weakened slightly after crossing the
island, then rapidly intensified into a strong Category 4 hurricane
before making landfall near Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte, FL. The
storm crossed the Peninsula, maintaining hurricane intensity, and
exited near Jacksonville. Charley continued north-northeastward and
made a second U. S. landfall in South Carolina.
Hurricane Danielle formed in mid-month near the Cape Verdes but moved
northward over the eastern Atlantic, becoming an impressive Category 2
hurricane. Tropical Storm Earl formed at the same time as Danielle and
moved through the southern Windwards as a tropical storm, but lost its
circulation and was downgraded to a tropical wave in the southeastern
Caribbean. Earl's remnants continued westward, reaching the Eastern
Pacific several days later and ultimately redeveloping into Hurricane
Frank. Tropical Storms Gaston and Hermine were twins forming late in
the month along an old frontal boundary stretching eastward into the
Atlantic from the southeastern U. S. coast. Gaston formed near the
coast and struck South Carolina as a strong tropical storm near hurri-
cane intensity. Hermine formed from another LOW along the same frontal
trough west of Bermuda and moved northward, eventually reaching south-
eastern Massachusetts as a weak tropical storm. (NOTE: Gaston has been
upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane at landfall during a post-storm
review of all the data.)
Mighty Hurricane Frances formed on 25 August about midway between the
Lesser Antilles and Africa. Frances moved relentlessly on a west-
northwesterly track which carried it north of the Leeward Islands and
Puerto Rico as it became a large, severe Category 4 hurricane. Frances
slashed its way through the Bahamas, gradually weakening to Category 2
levels during the process. The storm made landfall in southeastern
Florida as a very large, slow-moving Category 2 hurricane--not "major"
by Saffir/Simpson standards, but still causing major damage as it crossed
the Peninsula. Frances emerged into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and
made a final landfall as a tropical storm near St. Marks, FL.
A strong tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa very late
in August and passed through the Cape Verde Islands on the 31st. The
system was quite well-organized at one point, and SAB assigned a Dvorak
classification of T2.5/2.5 at 31/1800 UTC. However, the convection
quickly began to diminish and the system was not classified as a
tropical depression at the time. The weak LOW persisted, however, and
over a week later, on 9 September, was briefly upgraded to tropical
depression status. (This system will be mentioned in the September
summary.)
A special thanks to Kevin Boyle for writing the reports on Danielle,
Earl, Gaston and Hermine.
NOTE: The official TPC/NHC storm reports for Hurricane Gaston and
Tropical Storm Hermine, as well as some earlier and later tropical
cyclones, are now available online at the following link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004atlan.shtml>
HURRICANE ALEX
(TC-01)
31 July - 7 August
--------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
The first tropical cyclone of what has turned out to be one of the
most active Atlantic seasons on record had its roots in an upper-level
LOW which interacted with a surface trough--a fairly common mode of
tropical cyclone formation in the subtropics. On the afternoon of
27 July an area of showers associated with a weak surface trough was
located about 435 nm east of the northwestern Bahamas. Over the next
couple of days the elongated trough, interacting with an upper-level LOW,
produced numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over a wide area
extending eastward from the Bahamas several hundred miles. Convection
had become more concentrated by the morning of the 29th, and upper-level
winds were becoming a little more favorable for development.
Visible satellite pictures on the morning of 30 July indicated that a
LLCC was forming about 235 nm east-northeast of Freeport in the Bahamas.
A U. S. Air Force Reserves reconnaissance aircraft flew into the area
during the afternoon and found a broad circulation centered approximately
240 nm east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Convection was still somewhat
disorganized but the environment appeared favorable for further develop-
ment. However, overnight convection diminished and upper-level winds
increased again, leading to a loss of organization. At 0930 UTC on the
31st the weak circulation was centered about 150 nm east of northern
Florida and was not well-organized. But during the morning hours the
downhill trend reversed and the LOW appeared to be gaining in organiza-
tion. A reconnaissance mission during the morning did not find a well-
defined surface circulation, but did report winds of 20-25 kts to the
east of the LOW, which was located about 175 nm east of St. Augustine
at 1530 UTC. During the afternoon the LOW continued to exhibit
increasing convective organization, and based on this plus a 30-kt
intensity estimate from TAFB, the first advisory on Tropical Depression
01 was issued at 2100 UTC. The depression's center was located about
150 nm south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, and drifting toward
the northwest at 8 kts.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
A reconnaissance plane during the evening of the 31st could find no
center, but a QuikScat pass just before the evening advisory confirmed
that TD-01 consisted of a broad circulation with 20-25 kt winds. Strong
northeasterly flow was impinging on the depression, keeping the broad
center on the northern edge of the deeper convection. The MSW was upped
to 30 kts at 1500 UTC on 1 August based on reconnaissance FLWs of 33 and
36 kts and a visual surface estimate of 30 kts. Another flight early
in the afternoon found 41-kt winds at 300 m with a visual surface esti-
mate of 35 kts. On this basis, TD-01 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Alex
at 1800 UTC, located about 70 nm south-southeast of Charleston, SC, and
essentially stationary. There were signs that the circulation was
gradually getting better organized, although the aforementioned shear was
preventing the well-defined mid-level circulation noted in radar imagery
from aligning with any of the many low-level swirls that were continuing
to pop out on the north side of the convection.
Early on the morning of 2 August radar imagery indicated that the
core of Alex was becoming much better organized, and a reconnaissance
flight into the storm found that the CP had fallen to 992 mb and measured
peak 850-mb winds of 62 kts. A special advisory was issued at 1200 UTC,
upping the winds to 50 kts. The center was relocated to a position about
105 nm south-southeast of Charleston, SC, and drifting eastward. As the
upper-level shear pattern changed, so Alex's structure evolved with the
strong central convection shifting east of the center with a well-
developed band in the southeast quadrant. The drop in pressure leveled
off during the afternoon for a time, concurrent with the formation of a
20-mile wide eye that was open to the southeast. Later in the evening
another flight found that Alex had a 10-nm diameter eye with a surface
pressure of 987 mb and FLWs of 69 kts. Alex's MSW was upped to 60 kts in
the 03/0300 UTC advisory, based primarily on the central pressure. The
storm at this time was moving northeastward at 8 kts, but an approaching
mid-level trough over the Missouri River valley was forecast to dig a
little more southward before pushing eastward, an event which would
likely lead to a more south-southwesterly steering flow that would help
to pull Alex northward toward the North Carolina coast.
In an intermediate advisory at 03/0600 UTC, Alex was upgraded to the
first hurricane of the Atlantic season. Alex was then centered about
65 nm south-southeast of Wilmington, NC, moving northeastward at 8 kts.
A reconnaissance mission had found 850-mb winds of 81 kts along with a
CP of 983 mb. Afterward, the Wilmington and Newport WSR-88D radars had
shown 85-kt winds at around 2500 metres. The radar imagery revealed an
eyewall in constant flux--occasionally fully-closed and occasionally
open to the southwest, likely due to upper-level southwesterly flow
impinging on the cyclone. Alex's intensity took another jump, rather
unexpected, at 1500 UTC up to Category 2 status. The pressure had fallen
to 972 mb, and a reconnaissance aircraft found peak FLWs of 105 kts at
1135 UTC. Around 1700 UTC the center of Hurricane Alex passed only
10 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, bringing sustained Category 1
hurricane winds to the Outer Banks. The maximum winds at the time were
85 kts, but the strongest winds were in the eastern semicircle--away from
the coast. The storm by this time was embedded in the deep-layer south-
westerly flow to the north of the subtropical ridge and was moving north-
eastward at 15 kts. By 0300 UTC on the 4th Alex was already 150 nm
east-northeast of Cape Hatteras. An evening reconnaissance flight had
found a peak FLW of 87 kts, so the MSW was decreased to 80 kts.
By 1500 UTC on 4 August Alex had reached a position about 350 nm
east-northeast of Cape Hatteras and was accelerating out to sea at about
17 kts. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates had come down a bit, but
Alex was still a healthy Category 1 hurricane with the MSW decreased to
only 75 kts. Six hours later it was obvious that Alex had
intensified once more. Based on a consensus of Dvorak estimates, the
MSW was raised to 90 kts, making Alex a Category 2 hurricane once more.
The storm was just south of the north wall of the Gulf Stream over SSTs
between 26C and 27C. But an even bigger surprise was in store. Alex
continued to intensify during the evening hours of 4 August with CI
numbers from TAFB and SAB reaching 102 kts and a 3-hour AODT average
of 105 kts. Other Data-T and ODT numbers also supported increasing the
MSW to 105 kts, making Alex the first intense hurricane (Category 3 or
higher on the Saffir/Simpson scale) of the season. Alex became the
strongest intense hurricane on record to develop north of the 38th
parallel, with Hurricane Ellen of 1973 coming in second at 100 kts. Alex
and Ellen are the only two known hurricanes to reach 100 kts at such a
high latitude. In the case of Alex, SSTs were running more than 2 Deg C
above average in the area. At the time of the 05/0300 UTC advisory Alex
was located south of Nova Scotia, or about 700 nm southwest of Cape Race,
Newfoundland, and moving east-northeastward at 22 kts.
Alex held on to its peak intensity for a period of 18 hours. Cloud
tops continued to cool during the morning of 5 August, reaching temp-
eratures of -65 to -75 C. By 1500 UTC cloud tops were beginning to
warm, but Dvorak classifications were unchanged at T5.5. Alex was then
located about 350 nm southwest of Cape Race, racing east-northeastward
at 30 kts. By afternoon the eye was becoming less distinct and cloud
top temperatures were continuing to warm as the hurricane began to move
over colder waters. The MSW was reduced to 90 kts at 2100 UTC, and
further to 75 kts at 06/0300 UTC. Data from a 05/2210 UTC SSM/I overpass
suggested that the LLCC was beginning to decouple from the mid and upper-
level circulations. Around 2200 UTC Alex's eye went almost directly over
Canadian buoy 44140, which reported a minimum SLP of 979.3 mb.
Deep convection decreased significantly during the early hours of the
6th of August, and by 0900 UTC was confined to a few clusters in the
eastern semicircle. The intensity was set to 65 kts based on a average
of satellite classifications and the rapid forward motion (45 kts). The
final NHC advisory was issued at 06/1500 UTC and placed the center of
Alex about 750 nm east of Cape Race. The MSW was reduced to 50 kts and
the cyclone was rapidly becoming extratropical as it raced over the
cold North Atlantic waters. By 0000 UTC on 7 August Alex's remnants
consisted of a 35-kt gale center located approximately 500 nm northeast
of the northwesternmost Azores. I received the following e-mail from
Kevin Boyle regarding the "afterlife" of Alex:
"Alex became a deep depression (975 mb) and has parked itself to the
west of the British Isles where it will remain throughout the coming
week. At present it is advecting a lot of warm, humid air and temp-
eratures failed to fall below 19 C (DP of 19 C) last night (night of
8 August). Bracknell surface charts indicate that the filling Alex will
cross Britain as a weakening feature towards the weekend. Torrential
downpours are expected throughout the week and there is a concern for
flooding in places, especially after the heavy rain and thunderstorms
at the end of last week."
C. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
A NOAA buoy located near Frying Pan Shoals reported a wind gust of
43 kts shortly after midnight on 3 August. Later the buoy reported
sustained winds of 33 kts, gusting to 41 kts. Around midday on the
3rd there was an unofficial report of sustained winds to 43 kts with
a peak gust of 73 kts from Okracoke Island. Another unofficial report
was received from Hatteras Village of sustained winds to 57 kts, gusting
to 75 kts.
Unofficial sustained winds of 63 kts and a peak gust of 89 kts were
reported from near Cape Hatteras by two private firms, Weatherflow, Inc.
and the Hurricane Intercept Research Team, respectively. Additionally,
Weatherflow, Inc. measured a 5-min avg wind of 65 kts at Avon Pier around
1735 UTC.
D. Casualties and Damage
------------------------
There were no known casualties associated with Hurricane Alex.
Estimates place the damage in the Outer Banks at around $2.5 million.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
(TC-02)
3 - 14 August
-----------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
Shower activity associated with a tropical wave which had moved off
the western African coast in late July began to show signs of increased
organization on the morning of 31 July several hundred miles southwest
of the Cape Verde Islands. Late in the afternoon the main action was
located about 520 nm west-southwest of the islands and propagating
westward at 17 kts. The STWO from TPC/NHC indicated that some slow
development was possible. Subsequent days saw the wave continue to
move rather rapidly across the tropical Atlantic, gradually increasing
in organization. By early morning on 3 August the wave had reached a
point about 460 nm east of the Windward Islands. Organization had
improved to the point that advisories were initiated on Tropical
Depression 02 at 03/1500 UTC. The depression's center was estimated to
be about 400 nm east of the Lesser Antilles and was moving westward
at 18 kts. The initial MSW was estimated at 25 kts. There was some
question as to whether the rapidly moving system had a closed surface
circulation, but the case for this was made based on an analysis of
QuikScat data.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
The depression continued rapidly westward toward the Windward Islands.
The center was located about 40 nm north-northwest of Barbados at 0600
UTC on 4 August and just east of St. Lucia three hours later. Whether
or not there was actually a closed LLCC continued to be a matter of
uncertainty. The MSW, initially set at 25 kts, was upped to 30 kts at
04/0300 UTC based on CI estimates of 35 and 30 kts from TAFB and SAB,
respectively, plus some near 30-kt uncontaminated wind vectors from a
03/2208 UTC QuikScat overpass. By early morning of the 4th convection
had become more concentrated, but surface pressures suggested that there
was not a closed circulation. A reconnaissance plane reached the area
during the morning and found a very sharp wind shift and some south-
southwesterly winds at 760 m, but was not able to close off a circu-
lation. Since most dynamical model guidance was indicating that the
system would soon slow down, it was carried as a tropical depression in
the 04/1500 UTC advisory. However, by afternoon the convection had
become elongated in an east-west direction and less concentrated, so
TD-02 was downgraded to a tropical wave at 2100 UTC about 330 nm south-
southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.
No sooner had TD-02 been downgraded than it looked like it might be
about to stage a comeback. During the evening hours of 4 August
convection became more concentrated about 150 nm east of Bonaire, and
the wave was moving slower at about 15 kts, the slower movement making
reformation of a surface LOW possible. However, no new circulation
formed and by the next day upper-level winds had become less favorable
for development. Over the next few days the remnant tropical wave
continued rapidly westward across the Caribbean, generating showers
and thunderstorms over a wide area in the Greater Antilles and the
central and western Caribbean Sea. On the 7th the system appeared
much weaker and wasn't even mentioned in the 07/2130 UTC STWO. However,
by the afternoon of the 8th disturbed weather had become better organized
over the extreme northwestern Caribbean and some potential for develop-
ment was noted in the afternoon STWO.
During the evening a tight vortex spun up over the Yucatan Channel,
as seen in radar imagery. Likely this feature was at mid-levels, but was
a harbinger of things to come. By early morning of 9 August the system
had entered the Gulf of Mexico and was located about 65 nm north of
Cancun. A reconnaissance plane visited the area around midday and found
a very small surface circulation with a 450-m FLW of 56 kts. Advisories
were re-initiated on the system, which was christened Tropical Storm
Bonnie, at 2100 UTC with the center located about 355 nm south of the
mouth of the Mississippi River. The initial warning intensity was set
at 40 kts, and the lowest CP reported by the aircraft was 1007 mb. Winds
were increased to 45 kts at 10/0300 UTC after an evening reconnaissance
mission found a 7-nm diameter closed eyewall. However, the eyewall soon
deteriorated somewhat and expanded to 17 nm. It is unusual to see a
closed eyewall in a storm of less than hurricane intensity.
Bonnie's initial northwesterly motion became northerly on the 10th as
a shortwave trough moving into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico weakened
the ridge to the north. The intensity reached a temporary peak of 50
kts at 1500 UTC after a dropsonde reported 70-kt winds a couple hundred
feet above the surface with surface winds of 51 kts. However, central
convection diminished somewhat during the afternoon and by 11/0300 UTC
the MSW had been lowered to 40 kts. Bonnie's intensity fluctuated up
and down several times during its 3-day trek across the Gulf of Mexico--
something rather common in very small tropical cyclones. At 2100 UTC
on 10 August Bonnie was centered about 275 nm south of the Mississippi
River's mouth, moving slowly north at 5 kts. Gales extended outward
from the center 40 nm in the southern quadrants and only 25 nm to the
north.
Bonnie continued to experience ups and downs on 11 August. During
the morning the cyclone became much better organized with a burst of
convection with cloud tops as cold as -83 C forming over the center.
Buoy 42001, located about 45 nm northeast of Bonnie's center, reported
a 10-min avg wind of 41 kts with a gust to 52 kts. Gradient wind
computations using a 10-mb pressure difference between the center and
the buoy indicated that 50-kt winds were possible. Based on this, the
1500 UTC advisory MSW was conservatively increased to 45 kts. A later
report from the buoy reported a gust to 66 kts, so the MSW was increased
to 55 kts in the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. In response to an
unseasonably strong deep-layer trough over the central U. S., by 1800
UTC Bonnie had made the expected sharp turn to the northeast. The storm
was then located about 180 nm south of the mouth of the Mississippi and
moving northeast at about 10 kts. After the tremendous burst of deep
convection observed during the morning, Bonnie's convection leveled off.
During the afternoon the tight inner wind core which had been present for
the past three days collapsed, leaving the maximum winds in a band of
convection removed from the center. An evening reconnaissance flight
found peak FLWs of only 30 kts, even though CI estimates were 45 and
55 kts. Since it was possible that the aircraft had not sampled the
strongest winds, the MSW was reduced to only 50 kts at 12/0300 UTC,
although the forecaster commented that this might be generous.
Bonnie accelerated toward the northeast as the morning of 12 August
progressed. Winds were decreased to 45 kts at 0900 UTC, but were upped
slightly to 50 kts in the 1200 UTC intermediate advisory. Bonnie was
then centered only about 70 nm southwest of Apalachicola, FL, and was
moving northeastward at about 20 kts. By 1500 UTC Bonnie was weakening
once more and the cloud pattern was becoming elongated, suggesting that
extratropical transition was underway. The center of Bonnie hugged
the coast from near Apalachicola east-northeastward to near the head of
Apalachee Bay where the center finally made landfall. At 1800 UTC the
center of the weakening cyclone was located inland about 50 km south-
east of Tallahassee, FL, moving toward the east-northeast at 24 kts.
Maximum winds had decreased to 35 kts, and at 2100 UTC Bonnie was down-
graded to a depression. The cloud pattern was by then becoming
associated with a frontal system. This was the final advisory package
issued by NHC as the responsibility for issuing advisories was handed
over to HPC. Bonnie's remnants sped northeastward across the coastal
plain of Georgia and the Carolinas and by the afternoon of the 13th
had moved out to sea off the coast of Virginia. By 14/0000 UTC the
LOW was off the New England coast, speeding north-northeastward, and
apparently was soon absorbed by an extratropical LOW to the north.
C. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
While Bonnie was over the Gulf of Mexico, ship H3GQ reported 40-kt
southwest winds 40 nm south of the center at 1800 UTC on 10 August. On
the morning of the 12th, the center of Bonnie passed very near NOAA buoy
42039, which reported gusts to 45 kts with a minimum SLP of 1002.7 mb.
The following rainfall observations were gleaned from the HPC storm
summaries. Perry, FL, had a storm total of 79 mm, while Athens and
Augusta, GA, both netted 53 mm in association with Bonnie. During the
six hours ending at 0600 UTC on 13 August, Hunter, GA, and North Myrtle
Beach, SC, recorded 72 mm and 75 mm, respectively.
The only location recording a 24-hour total exceeding 100 mm was
North Myrtle Beach, SC, which measured 108 mm in the 24 hours ending
at 1200 UTC on the 13th. A little further north, Newport, NC, recorded
a storm total of 65 mm, and Cherry Point, NC, measured 75 mm in the
30-hour period ending at 13/1800 UTC.
NOTE: More detailed rainfall information can be found in the HPC
advisories on Bonnie, which are archived on HPC's website:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/>
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
Damage from Tropical Storm Bonnie was minimal. The storm was
responsible for three deaths in North Carolina due to tornadoes spawned
by the weakening cyclone.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
HURRICANE CHARLEY
(TC-03)
9 - 16 August
-------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
A tropical wave moved off the western coast of Africa on 4 August.
The system moved rapidly westward with little sign of development until
the 8th, when it was located some 750 nm east of the Windward Islands.
Even then, associated thunderstorm activity was not well-organized.
On the early morning of the 9th the wave was located about 130 nm east of
the Windwards, moving west-northwestward at 22 kts with no signs of
tropical cyclone formation. However, later on during the morning showers
and thunderstorms became much better organized and surface pressures had
fallen significantly over the islands. A Special Tropical Disturbance
Statement was issued at 1345 UTC which noted that Barbados had reported
wind gusts to 46 kts during the previous couple of hours. Subsequent
surface observations from Trinidad and Margarita showed west-southwest
and west-northwest winds, respectively, of about 10 kts, establishing
the fact that a surface circulation existed. Hence, advisories were
initiated at 1745 UTC on Tropical Depression 03, located about 45 nm
southeast of Grenada and moving westward at 19 kts. Visible satellite
imagery depicted a very well-organized system with distinct banding
features. TD-03 was forecast to intensify to hurricane intensity in
72 hours.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
TD-03 faired rather well as it traversed the typically unfavorable
southeastern Caribbean Sea. During the evening banding appeared less
impressive than earlier, but new convection formed near the center of
circulation. At 0900 UTC on 10 August the depression was upgraded to
Tropical Storm Charley, located about 390 nm south-southeast of Santo
Domingo and moving west-northwestward at 21 kts. The cyclone had become
better organized overnight, and even though outer bands of deep
convection were currently minimal, the circulation occupied a large
envelope and outflow was excellent in all directions. Dvorak classi-
fications from all agencies were T2.5. As the day progressed Charley
slowly became better organized, and the first U. S. Air Force Reserves
reconnaissance flight into the storm, around 2000 UTC, found a tight
center with a CP of 999 mb and peak FLWs of 72 kts just to the northeast
of the center. Based on the aircraft data and a CI estimate of 55 kts
from TAFB, Charley's MSW was increased to 55 kts at 11/0300 UTC. The
storm was still moving rapidly west-northwestward from a position about
260 nm east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
The reconnaissance mission into the storm around 11/0600 UTC found
that the CP had dropped to 995 mb with a closed eyewall present. A
flight around midday found peak FLWs of 80 kts at 850 mb; hence, Charley
was upgraded to the season's second hurricane at 1800 UTC when located
approximately 80 nm south of Kingston, Jamaica. The young hurricane
was moving west-northwestward at the slightly slower pace of 16 kts.
During the evening Charley was sporting a small, closed eyewall of only
8 nm as it began to turn slightly more toward the northwest. The storm
continued to strengthen during the night--winds were upped to 75 kts at
12/0600 UTC. An upper-level LOW to the west had been inhibiting outflow
in that sector, but this feature began retreating westward away from the
cyclone, leading to a lessening of shear and improved outflow. By 1500
UTC Charley was moving northwestward at 15 kts, and the track gradually
became more north-northwesterly as the day progressed. In an inter-
mediate advisory at 1800 UTC, Charley's MSW was upped to 90 kts, making
it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale. The hurricane was
then located about 165 nm south-southeast of Havana, Cuba. This upgrade
was based on a peak FLW of 105 kts and a 92-kt dropsonde surface wind.
The CP was only down to 980 mb, but the storm was moving into a region
of higher-than-average surface pressures, implying that the usual
pressure/wind relationship might not be valid.
At 13/0300 UTC Hurricane Charley was moving north-northwestward toward
the southern coast of Cuba, being located between the Isle of Youth and
the Cuban mainland about 45 nm south of Havana. By 0600 UTC the hurri-
cane had almost crossed the island and was situated only 22 km west of
downtown Havana. Even though operationally Charley was a Category 2
hurricane when it reached Cuba, meteorological observations from the
island indicate that the hurricane had reached intense hurricane status,
or Category 3 on the Saffir/Simpson scale. The maximum 1-min avg wind
recorded in Cuba was 103 kts with a minimum SLP of 966 mb. A storm
surge of 3.7 m was measured in Playa Cajio along the southern coast of
Havana Province. (More of the Cuban observations follow in Section C.)
Reconnaissance observations revealed that Charley did not weaken very
much at all after crossing Cuba. Shortly after the eye had cleared the
northern coast, a plane found a CP of 970 mb with peak 700-mb winds of
104 kts. Also, Key West radar showed Doppler winds higher than 100 kts.
The MSW was upped to 95 kts at 0900 UTC. Things began to happen very
rapidly and dramatically during the morning of Friday, 13 August. An
eyewall dropsonde around 13/1200 UTC indicated that the MSW was still
near 95 kts, but the CP had dropped 5 mb to 965 mb between 1200 and 1400
UTC. By 1500 UTC Charley's motion had become northerly at 16 kts, and
two hours later the storm was moving north-northeastward at 18 kts. The
1700 UTC intermediate advisory upgraded Charley to a Category 3 hurricane
with 110-kt winds, located about 60 nm south-southwest of Ft. Myers, FL.
At about the same time, a reconnaissance aircraft found that the pressure
had fallen further to 954 mb and measured a peak FLW of 141 kts. On
this basis, a special advisory was issued at 1800 UTC upgrading Charley
to a Category 4 hurricane with a MSW of 125 kts.
Charley's pressure continued to fall, and the final reconnaissance
fix at 1956 UTC, just before the eye reached the coast, found a CP of
941 mb and a peak FLW of 148 kts. The eye of Charley moved inland near
Cayo Costa around 2000 UTC. The operational MSW at the time of landfall
was 125 kts, and this value has been widely reported in the media as the
landfall intensity. However, the 13/2100 UTC NHC discussion bulletin
noted that the FLW of 148 kts corresponds to a surface MSW of 130 kts,
and I have learned from a reliable source that in all probability
Charley's official landfall intensity will be 130 kts. An unofficial
gust of 110 kts was recorded near Punta Gorda along with a 943.6 mb
surface pressure. Charley began weakening as it moved quickly north-
northeastward across the Florida Peninsula. At 2300 UTC the center was
about 100 km south-southwest of Orlando with the MSW estimated at 100
kts, and by 14/0300 UTC had passed very near that city and was nearing
the Atlantic coast near Daytona Beach. The estimated MSW had decreased
to 75 kts by this time, based on surface and WSR-88D Doppler wind data.
By 0600 UTC on 14 August the center of Hurricane Charley had emerged
into the Atlantic just off the Florida coast and was located about 165 nm
south-southwest of Charleston, South Carolina. A reconnaissance plane
found peak FLWs of 88 kts in the eastern quadrant with a CP of 994 mb,
so the MSW remained at 75 kts in the 14/0900 UTC advisory. By 1200 UTC
the storm was located about 30 nm south-southeast of Charleston and was
racing to the north-northeast at 25 kts. At 1500 UTC radar and surface
observations indicated that the center of Charley was on the coast near
Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, with the CP down to 989 mb. The MSW by
this time had dropped to 65 kts, and the former Category 4 hurricane
was downgraded to a tropical storm three hours later when located over
eastern North Carolina about 55 km north of Wilmington. Wrightsville
Beach reported a sustained wind of 61 kts at 1736 UTC, so the MSW was
held at 60 kts for the 2100 UTC advisory.
At 15/0000 UTC the center of Tropical Storm Charley was located just
east of Virginia Beach, Virginia, and racing northeastward at 29 kts.
Winds had decreased to near 45 kts and the storm was beginning to lose
tropical characteristics. By 15/0600 UTC Charley was passing about
35 nm east of Atlantic City, New Jersey, with peak winds of only minimal
tropical storm intensity. Charley made a final landfall around 0900 UTC
on Long Island near the town of Farmingville, and by 1200 UTC was located
in the vicinity of Boston. The final TPC/NHC advisory on Charley was
issued at 15/1500 UTC with the system located east of Cape Cod and still
moving quickly northeastward. The extratropical remnant was forecast to
lose its identity in a frontal zone, and apparently this happened, as
OPC made its final reference to the post-Charley system at 16/0000 UTC.
Hurricane Charley's recurvature at a fairly low latitude in the Gulf
of Mexico was more typical of a late September or October hurricane.
The rather unusual track was due to an unseasonably strong shortwave
trough moving into the southeastern U. S. This same trough had recurved
Tropical Storm Bonnie into the eastern Florida Panhandle the day before
Charley savagely struck the Charlotte Harbor communities. Charley was
the first of four destructive hurricanes to strike the state of Florida
during the historic 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, and the first of
three to bring hurricane-force winds to many of the inland counties
located on the Peninsula. Hurricane Charley was also the first major
hurricane to strike the Charlotte Harbor since at least 1944. Following
is a list of the stronger hurricanes to strike this area of Florida
since 1871, and none appears to have been anywhere near as intense as
Charley:
(1) Oct, 1873 - A major hurricane made landfall in the Charlotte Harbor
area, destroying Punta Rassa (this from ATLANTIC HURRICANES by Dunn
and Miller). The reanalyzed Best Track file assigns a MSW of about
100 kts and a SLP of 959 mb at landfall. Records indicate that the
surge reached a height of 4.3 metres.
(2) Sep, 1894 - A Category 2 hurricane with winds of 90 kts made landfall
in the Charlotte Harbor area.
(3) Oct, 1910 - The famous "loop" hurricane made landfall a little to the
south of Port Charlotte and to the north of Fort Myers. The
reanalyzed Best Track file assigns a MSW of 105 kts at landfall.
(4) Oct, 1944 - The final hurricane of 1944 made landfall between the
Charlotte Harbor area and Tampa. Based on the old Best Track file
(the ongoing reanalysis has not yet reached 1944) the MSW appears
to have been about 105 kts.
It is interesting to note that all the major hurricanes affecting this
region occurred after the first of October except for Hurricane Charley,
which illustrates the fact that Charley's track was most unusual for a
mid-August hurricane.
C. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
(1) Cuba
--------
As Charley crossed Cuba hurricane-force winds extended about 13 nm
to the right of the center and 10 nm to the left of the track--a very
small hurricane indeed. As noted above, the strongest wind measured
on the island during Charley's passage was a 1-min avg sustained wind
of 103 kts at the Vaisala meteorological station located at the airport
in Playa Baracoa, just west of Havana City, and just inside the eastern
eyewall. The station measured peak gusts of 130 kts and a minimum SLP
of 974 mb. Another Vaisala station at San Antonio de los Banos measured
a maximum 1-min avg wind of 97 kts, gusting to 115 kts, before the
sensors were blown away. The station in Guira de Melena, also in the
eastern eyewall, reported a MSW of 92 kts, peak gusts of 116 kts, and
a minimum SLP of 971.6 mb. The minimum SLP of 966 mb mentioned earlier
was estimated, based on a consideration of the available data and the
distance of the various stations from the center of the eye.
Charley was a rather dry hurricane in Cuba--rainfall amounts of 100 to
150 mm were reported only in restricted areas near the path of the eye.
Eyewitnesses (no pun intended) reported that the stars could be clearly
seen during the passage of Charley's eye, and there were some reports of
a reddish-like appearance of the sky within the eye. A storm surge of
3.7 m above MSL was observed in Playa Cajio, where 360 houses were simply
swept away. The ocean spread up to 2.6 km inland at that point, and
penetrated 1.5 km inland at Surgidero de Batabano, where the surge height
was 2.8 m.
(The information in this section comes from an excellent Preliminary
Report on Hurricane Charley in Cuba prepared by Dr. Jose Rubiera, Dr.
Maritza Ballester and Dr. Cecilia Gonzalez, National Forecasting Center,
Instituto de Meteorologia, Cuba.)
(2) Reconnaissance Aircraft
---------------------------
A few comments from Rich Henning, a member of the U. S. Air Force's
53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron:
"In the case of Charley, the MSLP hung around 970 mb all night (with
a 700-mb core temperature of only 12-14 C), then it dropped 29 mb (with
a 10-mb drop in about 90 minutes) as the 700-mb core temperature spiked
up to 20 C and the eye contracted to 5 miles. The 13/1930 UTC fix
included an astonishing description of 138-kt winds ONE MILE southeast
of the eye center." Charley provided a fascinating case study of meso-
scale core processes gone amok.
As noted above, the lowest CP and peak FLW measured by reconnaissance
aircraft was 941 mb and 148 kts, respectively, at 13/1956 UTC--shortly
before Charley's eye made landfall in Florida.
(3) Florida
-----------
As noted above, one of the NHC advisories alluded to an unofficial
gust (estimated) of 110 kts along with a 943.6 mb SLP measured at Punta
Gorda. Storm chaser Mike Theiss was in the Charlotte Harbor area during
the passage of the eye (which lasted only 5 minutes) and recorded a
minimum pressure of 944 mb. Peak gusts of 90 kts and 95 kts were
estimated at Arcadia and Wauchula, respectively, by Emergency Management
personnel. The peak gust recorded by a NWS station was 97 kts at Punta
Gorda at 13/2035 UTC.
The following table contains reports of sustained winds (2-min avg)
exceeding storm force (48 kts):
County City Dir (deg) Spd (kts) Date/Time (UTC)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Osceola Kissimmee ??? 53 14 / 0035
Orange Orlando 160 67 14 / 0105
Orange Orlando 130 57 14 / 0129
Seminole Sanford 120 63 14 / 0210
Volusia Daytona Beach 200 48 14 / 0353
Volusia Ormond Beach 100 59 14 / 0315
The following table contains reports of peak gusts exceeding hurricane
force (64 kts):
County City Dir (deg) Spd (kts) Date/Time (UTC)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Osceola Kissimmee ??? 65 14 / 0035
Orange Orlando 160 91 14 / 0105
Orange Orlando 120 74 14 / 0129
Seminole Sanford 120 80 14 / 0210
Volusia Daytona Beach 200 72 14 / 0353
Volusia Ormond Beach 100 75 14 / 0315
Note: The above values represent the highest found. Many of the ASOS
sites failed during the height of the hurricane.
Two NASA wind towers near Cape Canaveral at 16.5 m above ground level
reported sustained winds or 53 kts and 56 kts with both reporting peak
gusts of 75 kts. The Wind Shear Alert System (33.5-45.7 m above ground
level) at Daytona Beach International Airport reported a maximum gust
of 84 kts.
As Hurricane Charley passed through Florida rather quickly, rainfall
amounts were not particularly impressive. The highest storm total amount
was 141 mm at Sanford in Seminole County, recorded between 12/1200 and
14/1200 UTC. Kissimmee recorded 132 mm during the same 48-hour period.
Apopka in Orange County recorded a 24-hour total of 102 mm between
13/0400 and 14/0400 UTC.
Estimates place the magnitude of the peak storm surge at 4-5 metres.
More meteorological observations can be found at the following links:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/CharleyWebPage.shtml>
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/charley/PSHMLB.txt>
D. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
(1) Cuba
--------
There was a lot of damage reported to housing, crops, trees, power and
telephone lines and overall infrastructure in the western portion of
Havana Province, in the west of Havana City and the eastern part of Pinar
del Rio. However, only four fatalities were reported from this major
Category 3 hurricane, the first of such an intensity to strike Havana
Province since 1948. Very severe damage was sustained by agriculture.
Hundreds of hectares of banana plantations were destroyed by the winds.
Even edible root plantations, such as yucca, were heavily damaged.
Citrus plantations were stripped of fruit, and tens of thousands of
mango, guava and avocado trees were also blown down and the fruit lost.
Reports indicate that some 40,500 homes were heavily damaged and 8300
houses totally destroyed.
In addition to the four fatalities reported in Cuba, one death was
attributed to the hurricane in Jamaica.
(2) Florida
-----------
Hurricane Charley was the second most destructive hurricane ever to
strike the state of Florida, the most destructive being Category 5
Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The most concentrated destruction was in
the communities of Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte in the Charlotte
Harbor area of southwest Florida. Total dollar estimates of insured
losses range from around $7.5 to $11 billion, with total damages likely
to exceed $15 billion. In the Charlotte Harbor area, approximately
10,000 homes were destroyed with another 16,000 severely damaged. Many
of these were no doubt mobile homes, which are not designed to withstand
the extreme winds encountered in intense tropical cyclones. On the
day after the passage of Charley an estimated 1.3 million persons were
without electrical power. One source estimated the number of persons
initially without power at 2 million.
An estimated 1.4 million people evacuated their homes prior to the
approach of Hurricane Charley. Some 2300 stayed in local shelters.
A close call came at Arcadia, about 20 miles inland, where one wall
collapsed at a civic center which was being utilized as an evacuation
shelter for some 1200 people. Very fortunately, only one person was
injured as a result of the incident and her injuries were minor.
Charley's winds played havoc with small aircraft at the Charlotte
Airport with many planes ripped apart by the fierce winds. An observer
reported seeing one small plane flying down the runway as if were about
to take off.
The U. S. Labor Department reported that new applications for
unemployment insurance increased by a seasonally adjusted 10,000 to
343,000 for the week ending 21 August. Half of this 10,000 rise was
attributed to claims stemming from Hurricane Charley.
Hurricane Charley was directly responsible for nine deaths in Florida
with 16 more indirectly attributable to the storm. Most of the indirect
deaths occurred post-storm and were due to things like electrocution,
heart problems, carbon monoxide poisoning, automobile accidents, and heat
strokes. One man died when he fell from a tree, and another died when
a tree fell on him. Many post-storm injuries were reported due to things
like stepping on nails, tripping over debris, chainsaw accidents, auto-
mobile accidents at intersections where traffic lights were inoperative,
bruises, cut and strains. Hurricane-related stress also caused an
increase in heart attacks and respiratory problems, and many people
became ill with diarrhea and vomiting after drinking contaminated tap
water.
(3) Carolinas and Northward
---------------------------
The Property Claims Service reports that insured damages due to
Charley were estimated at $25 million in North Carolina and $20 million
in South Carolina. In the state of Rhode Island, one death was reported
as a direct casualty of Hurricane Charley.
(4) Additional Information
--------------------------
More information on storm damage can be found in the reports prepared
by the Tampa and Melbourne NWS offices referenced in Section C.3 above.
In addition, many articles dealing with the impact of Hurricane Charley
and subsequent storms may be found at the following URL:
http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/vLND>
Following are some links supplied by John Wallace which contain
additional information on the impact of Hurricane Charley:
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/weather/special/storm/2004/atlantic/charley/news.html>
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/business/epaper/2004/08/24/a1d_insure_0824.html>
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/fromthefield/109421485563.htm>
E. Storm Chaser Reports
-----------------------
Following are short write-ups sent by storm chasers Mike Theiss and
Jim Leonard, who were eyewitnesses to Charley's fury in the Charlotte
Harbor area.
(1) Mike Theiss
---------------
"I documented Hurricane Charley at Charlotte Harbor and never imagined
this storm would turn out to be like this. I had a window blown out from
a piece of a flying roof, a large telephone pole with a big transformer
landed behind my truck, and I had debris slamming against my car during
the real intense eyewall which lasted for about 20 minutes. All I can
say is "UNREAL". I had heard reports of this storm intensifying, but I
had no idea it got as strong as it did. I recorded a pressure of 944 mb
and was in "Awe" in the eye of this beast. The core was very small and
tight and I was in the eye for around 5 minutes. The damage in the area
I was in reminded me of Andrew's aftermath, but in a smaller area. I
observed concrete structures blown apart, every building at least
de-roofed, trees snapped in half, and large billboard signs with only
the poles left twisted beyond belief. I drove a few miles down the road
and the damage was bad, but nowhere near the devastation in Charlotte
Harbor. I haven't seen any radar loops yet of it making landfall and
can't wait. I will post pics in a few days. I have to focus on getting
my truck in the shop to get repaired."
More pictures and video clips may be found at Mike's website:
http://www.eyeinthetropics.com/>
(2) Jim Leonard
---------------
"First of all, many thanks to Eric Blake for his frequent radar
updates during the entire afternoon of the chase. We started the morning
at a friend's house at Cape Coral, a suburb of Ft. Myers. By late
morning I noticed the eye of the hurricane began to show a slight NNE
heading, so the plan to head up to Sarasota was adjusted southward. As
we headed over the bridge from Cape Coral to the city of Ft. Myers, I saw
a long rainfree cloud base approaching from the south. I turned the van
around and went back to the bridge to get in a better position. The
cloud line moved over our position without doing anything when all of a
sudden overhead and to the NE I noticed rapid scud motion which I figured
would lead to a potential tornado. At that moment I saw a large spray
ring on the bay about a half mile to the northeast. We could only see
this for a few seconds as there were too many trees in the way. Then a
heavy rain over us occurred and obscured the vortex. Once the rain let
up the cloud base circulation moved NW. At that time I saw rapidly
circulating scud tags for a couple minutes more before losing sight of
it.
"As the afternoon wore on we drove north and south between Ft. Myers
and North Port like a yo-yo as the center of the hurricane wobbled NNE.
An average-sized eyewall would have been much easier to place ourselves
in its track. As this storm was so small in size you had to be really
accurate to get in its path. Also, we had to find the safest structure
and have the best tree scenes during the strongest winds. We ended up
in the ground-level parking garage of a hospital between Port Charlotte
and Charlotte Harbor. While searching for our spot the winds were
averaging 40 to 50 kts in gusts when a sudden gust of 70 kts occurred.
We had to take cover fast! A second gust probably 60 kts or so occurred
as a tree branch blasted out my left rear window of the van--this while
video was rolling, great audio! Minutes later we positioned ourselves
in the parking garage as all hell broke loose!
"The core of this hurricane was so small and its forward movement so
rapid that the winds increased amazingly fast. We were probably in
an area of better constructed buildings as just a few blocks either side
of us damage to structures was much worse. During the first half winds
in my estimation were in the 120 to 130 mph range. There were many
sections of roofing material flying around and I filmed the roof of a
bank as it came off in pieces across the parking lot from us. The wind
speed dropped off dramatically as the northern portion of the eye moved
across--this took about two or three minutes--when all of a sudden the
winds shifted to the NNE, then eventually north with the rain really
blinding at this time. I estimated the gusts at the height of this part
as high as 135 to 140 mph. The strongest winds on the back side lasted
about 15 to 20 minutes. It was like going through a 15-mile-wide
tornado! About 30 minutes later we began a brief damage survey before we
headed back home. I noticed how the intense damage was definitely in
streaks, which is typical in rapidly deepening hurricanes. The eyewall
was characterized by very turbulent gusts, which is a common occurrence
when the eyewall convection is very intense. This would account for
the streaks of intense damage. This was first noted in Hurricane Celia
in August, 1970, in Corpus Christi, Texas, a storm with a similar central
pressure and storm size at landfall."
More information may be available on Jim's website:
http://www.cyclonejim.com/>
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
HURRICANE DANIELLE
(TC-04)
13 - 21 August
--------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
A strong and well-organized tropical wave, possibly already at
tropical depression intensity, left the African coast on 12 August and
was first mentioned in NHC/TPC's Tropical Weather Outlook at 2230 UTC
later that day. The wave was accompanied by a broad LOW, and moving in
a westerly direction, was centred around 260 nm southeast of the Cape
Verde Islands by early the next morning. The disturbance proceeded to
develop quickly and was soon upgraded to Tropical Depression Four at
13/1500 UTC. The system was designated Tropical Storm Danielle at
14/0300 UTC while passing south of the Cape Verde Islands. Danielle's
MSW may have reached 35 kts six hours earlier, but the forecaster chose
to wait until satellite CI estimates from TAFB and SAB had both
reached a consensus of 2.5.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Tropical Storm Danielle was heading westward through a low shear
environment and warm SSTs southeast of a mid-level ridge. These
conditions encouraged gradual strengthening during the 14th. Banding
features became better defined over the southern semicircle before
beginning to wrap around the centre at 2100 UTC on 14 August. The
MSW had risen to 55 kts by this time, and a 14/2247 UTC SSM/I microwave
pass detected a developing eye. Danielle intensified into the first
Cape Verde hurricane of the year at 15/0300 UTC when the MSW reached
65 kts and CI estimates reached 4.0. Continued strengthening on the
15th brought the sustained winds up to 85 kts by 2100 UTC. Just prior
to this, the wind field surrounding Hurricane Danielle was reduced after
a 15/2016 UTC QuikScat pass had indicated a smaller wind radii than
previously analyzed. After this amendment, hurricane-force winds
extended 20 nm from the centre while gales reached out as far as 90 nm
in the southeastern quadrant.
Danielle's track gradually curved towards the northwest on the 16th
as a large area of troughing began to develop over the western Atlantic.
The hurricane was looking healthy on infrared satellite images with a
circular CDO punctured by a small eye, and good outflow was present in
all quadrants. Danielle arrived at its peak strength of 90 kts at
16/0300 UTC, and this intensity held constant for the rest of the day.
A single enhanced BD curve infrared image at 16/1800 UTC suggested a
stronger system with CI estimates of 5.5., so for a short time Danielle's
MSW could possibly have reached 100 kts. (It will be interesting to see
if the winds are upped any during post-storm analysis.) By 16/2100 UTC
Hurricane Danielle had turned north-northwestwards with its CDO less
symmetrical than earlier in the day, a sign that the environment was
becoming more hostile. The 10-nm eye persisted through the night, but
this feature had faded somewhat by 17/0300 UTC. However, it continued
to make intermittent appearances throughout the day. Veering northwards,
Danielle remained a 90-kt hurricane until 17/2100 UTC when the MSW
started to drop off.
The intensity dropped a little further at 0300 UTC on 18 August as
Hurricane Danielle tracked northward. The partially-exposed LLCC
had become difficult to locate by this time as a result of southwesterly
shear and dry air intrusion, but both microwave imagery and a 17/2100
UTC QuikScat pass indicated that the centre was located southwest of
the deep convection. The cyclone began to weaken more rapidly and was
barely at hurricane strength at 18/0900 UTC. It was downgraded to a
55-kt tropical storm six hours later as it turned towards the north-
northeast and began to decelerate. At 18/2100 UTC the centre of
Danielle passed near a drifting buoy which measured a CP of 1008.6 mb.
Despite the shear Danielle continued to generate bursts of convection
on the 19th, mainly to the northeast of the LLCC.
The storm was about to perform a rather jagged hairpin turn over the
next few days within a low to mid-level ridge, south of a passing short-
wave trough, and east of a strong mid to upper-level LOW near 33N/45W.
The hurricane was being steered in the flow between the mid to upper-
level LOW and the subtropical ridge. Danielle headed northeastward,
then eastward and finally wound up stationary at 19/2100 UTC. For
the next day or two Danielle was expected to meander in the same general
area. This was a completely different scenario to what some of the
forecast models had been initially forecasting. Danielle was
originally predicted to undergo extratropical transition and pass
through the Azores island chain. Instead, a HIGH built in the vicinity
of the Azores and blocked the cyclone's path in that direction.
In defiance of hostile upper-level shear and high surface pressures,
sporadic bursts of deep convection continued to fire up northeast of the
well-defined centre. Danielle was maintained as a 35-kt tropical storm
for the majority of the 20th. It was downgraded to a tropical depression
at 2100 UTC when most or all of the convective activity had subsided
and only the LLCC remained. Movement continued to be very slow and
erratic but eventually a northwesterly crawl became established late on
the 20th. This heading persisted into the 21st before Danielle assumed
a more westerly track. The system was dropped by NHC at 21/1500 UTC when
the final advisory was issued. The depression was then located a little
over 740 nm west-southwest of Azores. The remnant circulation crept
slowly westwards until the 22nd when movement became virtually static.
As the ex-hurricane started to drift slowly north on the 23rd, convection
redeveloped near to and east of the center, and the 23/1502 UTC STWO
mentioned the possibility that Danielle could regenerate back into a
tropical depression. However, deep convection soon diminished and
conditions started to become more unfavourable for redevelopment. The
LOW continued north to northwest at a quicker pace on the 24th. Finally,
whatever was left of Danielle was gradually incorporated into the warm
sector of a mid-latitude LOW on the 25th.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
No damage or casualties are known as a result of Hurricane Danielle.
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
TROPICAL STORM EARL
(TC-05)
13 - 16 August
---------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
The tropical wave that became Tropical Storm Earl exited the coast of
Africa around 6 August. It was at first a rather dull, uninteresting
feature as it tracked its way westwards across the tropical Atlantic.
The wave was initially mentioned in NHC/TPC's STWO at 1130 UTC on
12 August when it was centred about 1100 nm east of the Windward
Islands. A slow development potential was noted in this statement. The
disturbance gradually became a little better organized through the 12th
and 13th. As environmental conditions appeared to be favourable for
cyclogenesis, the 13/1630 UTC STWO warned that a tropical depression
could form within a day or two and that interests in the Lesser Antilles
and the eastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the system over the
next few days.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Tropical Depression Five formed at 2100 UTC on the 13th roughly 910 nm
or so east-southeast of the Windward Islands in an area historically
hostile for tropical cyclone development. However, it was this same
general area that had spawned Hurricane Charley only a few days before.
TD-05 was moving rather quickly westwards--perhaps too fast for its own
good--through a favourable environment, so further strengthening seemed
likely. However, it took another 24 hours for the depression to reach
tropical storm status. TD-05 was named Earl at 14/2100 UTC, by which
time its rapid forward speed of around 20 kts had taken it to within
nearly 350 nm southeast of Barbados. In response to the upgrade, the
governments of the Windward Islands each issued a tropical storm warning.
Tropical Storm Earl's motion was controlled by the steering flow provided
by a strong mid-level ridge to its north, and this feature was forecast
to persist and continue driving the tropical cyclone smartly westwards
for the rest of its short Caribbean cruise.
Some models gave the U. S. a fright by suggesting that in the long-
term Earl could recurve northwards as a Category 2 hurricane towards the
Gulf Coast or even Florida. Thankfully, this scenario failed to
materialize, especially so soon after Charley's devastating landfall
in Florida. Even though the overall cloud pattern appeared slightly
elongated on the morning of the 15th, deep convection increased
significantly near the centre and there was a little strengthening.
Satellite intensity estimates had reached T3.0, but because banding
features were barely discernible, the MSW was increased to only 40 kts,
which turned out to be the maximum intensity of Earl. While Earl's
satellite representation at 15/1500 UTC showed an organized system
with impressive outflow channels, the Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance
aircraft investigating Earl struggled to find a well-defined closed LLCC.
Meanwhile, the system was bombing through the Windward Islands and passed
just south of Grenada at around 15/1800 UTC before entering the Caribbean
Sea.
Tropical Storm Earl deteriorated dramatically overnight, and by the
next morning convection had weakened markedly and the impressive outflow
pattern that the system possessed earlier had been replaced by a uniform
easterly flow. In fact, QuikScat data revealed that Earl had degenerated
to the extent that it resembled an open wave. The government of
Venezuela refused to allow aircraft into their airspace for
reconnaissance purposes so NHC decided to continue advisories for a
little while longer, especially as Earl was in close proximity to land.
Microwave and QuikScat imagery indicated that the poorly-defined centre
or wave axis was racing ahead of the convection. The MSW was kept at
40 kts despite T-numbers having dropped to 2.0 (30 kts), and this was due
to a burst of deep convection near the alleged centre. An Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft reached the storm the next morning and was unable
to find any sign of a closed circulation associated with Earl. A Quik-
Scat pass also failed to locate the LLCC. On this basis, NHC downgraded
Earl to an open wave with 35-kt winds and issued the final advisory at
16/1500 UTC. The wave continued to generate winds of tropical storm
force as it passed south of Jamaica. Models continued to indicate the
possibility that the remnant of Earl could re-instate itself as a
tropical cyclone and reach hurricane strength as it tracked westward
through the Caribbean. However, a planned follow-up reconnaissance
flight to investigate the tropical wave on the 17th was cancelled since
the system failed to show any signs of re-organization. Continuing its
journey westwards, the remnants of Earl moved inland over Honduras/
northern Nicaragua later that same day, ultimately re-emerging over
Eastern Pacific waters around 18 or 19 August and redeveloping as
Hurricane Frank.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
According to the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency,
damages on Grenada were minor and amounted to no more than broken
branches, a few fallen trees, and downed power lines. Ten houses had
their roofs blown off while one home suffered partial roof damage.
There were reports of flooding in the St. George parish area of
Grenada, and the Point Saline International airport was closed for a
short time. There were no reports of injuries or casualties. Also,
there were no reports of casualties or damages from any of the other
Windward Islands due to Tropical Storm Earl.
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
HURRICANE FRANCES
(TC-06)
25 August - 10 September
--------------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
A vigorous tropical wave moved off the African coast early on the
21st of August. Conditions downstream were considered favorable for
tropical cyclone development, but the wave initially showed no signs
of cyclogenesis. By the next afternoon the wave was passing south of
the Cape Verde Islands and convection had become slightly better
organized. The wave continued marching westward on the 23rd with little
change, but by early morning of 24 August was again exhibiting increased
convective organization. The disturbance was then located approximately
500 nm west-southwest of the Cape Verdes, moving westward at 13 kts.
The convective appearance continued to improve into the evening hours,
and at 0300 UTC on 25 August the first advisory on Tropical Depression 06
was issued by TPC/NHC.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
The initial advisory placed the center of TD-06 about 750 nm west-
southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, moving west-northwestward at 15 kts.
The MSW was estimated at 25 kts and the system was forecast to reach
tropical storm intensity within 12 hours. During the morning of the 25th
convection associated with the depression looked somewhat ragged, but
during the afternoon the system showed renewed organization with a small
CDO and a convective band wrapped around the western semicircle. Since
satellite intensity estimates were 35 kts from TAFB and SAB, TD-06 was
upgraded to Tropical Storm Frances at 25/2100 UTC. The new tropical
storm was located about 1250 nm east of the Lesser Antilles and moving
westward at 17 kts. During the early morning hours of 26 August Frances'
cloud pattern improved significantly. Winds were upped to 50 kts in the
26/0900 UTC advisory, and there were some indications that a banding-type
eye was trying to form. The intensification trend continued and at 2100
UTC Frances was upgraded to hurricane status with 70-kt winds. Upper-
level outflow was good to excellent in all quadrants.
Hurricane Frances continued to steadily strengthen on the 27th, and
at 2100 UTC the MSW was upped to 100 kts, thereby making Frances the
third intense hurricane (Category 3+ on the Saffir/Simpson Scale) of the
season. The hurricane was then centered about 700 nm east of the Lee-
ward Islands. Up to this point Frances had been moving on a west-
northwesterly track, being guided by a strong subtropical ridge to the
north. For a couple of days a weakening of the ridge due to a higher-
latitude shortwave trough had been forecast, and this verified very
well. On 27 August Hurricane Frances began a northwestward jog in
response to the temporary weakening of the ridge. And, just as had
earlier been forecast, in a couple of days the cyclone returned to a
west-northwestward heading as the trough lifted out and the ridge
strengthened over the western Atlantic. The intensity remained more
or less constant late on the 27th and early on the 28th due to the first
of several eyewall replacement cycles. After completing this cycle,
Frances' intensity began to climb again, reaching an initial peak of
115 kts at 28/2100 UTC, based on an analysis of satellite intensity
estimates, both manual and objective. Frances was located about 600 nm
east of the northern Leeward Islands as it became the season's second
Category 4 hurricane.
As forecast, the subtropical ridge began to build and expand north of
the hurricane. Consequently, on the 29th Frances began to move back to
a heading of just slightly north of due west. The first U. S. Air Force
Reserves reconnaissance aircraft reached Frances during the afternoon
of 29 August. A minimum pressure of 949 mb was measured, and the peak
FLW found was 112 kts. Since the plane had not sampled the entire
circulation by the 2100 UTC advisory time, the MSW was left at 115 kts,
but this was reduced to 110 kts at 30/0300 UTC. The pressure was up to
954 mb at 2300 UTC and the highest 700-mb FLW reported was 118 kts at a
position about 9 nm northwest of the center. At 0900 UTC the MSW was
reduced further to 105 kts. The most recent peak FLW found by an
aircraft was only 99 kts, but the cyclone appeared much better organized
and satellite intensity estimates were ranging from 102 to 115 kts.
Frances was located at 30/0900 UTC about 335 nm east of the northern
Leeward Islands, moving west at around 8 kts.
Frances' intensity began to edge upward again on 31 August as the
pressure began to fall once more. The MSW was upped to 110 kts at
31/0000 UTC and to 115 kts at 1200 UTC. The hurricane had completed
an eyewall replacement cycle early in the morning, and the 1200 UTC
reconnaissance mission reported a peak FLW of 138 kts at 700 mb and an
extrapolated CP of 944 mb. Six hours later the MSW was nudged up again
to 120 kts. A reconnaissance plane had found winds to 144 kts at
700 mb with an extrapolated CP of 938 mb. Also, the Stepped Frequency
Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) on the NOAA P-3 plane measured surface winds
of 118 kts, and T-numbers had reached 6.5 from the satellite agencies.
Thus, Frances was a solid Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson
Scale located about 125 nm north of San Juan, Puerto Rico, moving west
at 15 kts. Hurricane force winds extended outward 60 nm from the center
in the northwest quadrant and from 35 to 50 nm in the other quadrants
while gales covered a zone almost 300 nm in diameter.
Large, severe Hurricane Frances maintained its intensity through the
first day of September. The lowest CP in the storm's history--935 mb--
was measured during the wee hours by a reconnaissance aircraft. The
storm was getting set to go through another eyewall replacement cycle.
A reconnaissance crew very early on the 1st reported finding three
concentric wind maxima, and the reconnaissance fix at 01/1719 UTC
reported a double eyewall. The discussion bulletin at 01/2100 UTC noted
that data from the SFMR on the NOAA P-3 plane were used to decrease the
wind radii estimates in the northwestern quadrant. As a result of this,
it was decided to delay the issuance of a hurricane watch for the Florida
East Coast. Very early on 2 September a dropsonde in the northeastern
eyewall reported surface winds near 125 kts. This, along with CI esti-
mates of 127 kts from all three satellite agencies, was the basis for
raising Frances' MSW to the peak value of 125 kts at 02/0900 UTC. The
attendant CP was measured at 936 mb. The storm's center had passed only
25 nm north of Grand Turk Island around 2100 UTC on 1 September, and at
0900 UTC on the 2nd was centered a like distance north of Mayaguana
Island in the Bahamas. This position is also 450 nm east-southeast of
Palm Beach, Florida.
At 1500 UTC on 2 September hurricane warnings were ordered up from
Florida City northward to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee.
Hurricane Frances was located very near San Salvador Island in the
Bahamas around 1800 UTC, still at its peak intensity of 125 kts. A
sustained wind of 99 kts was reported from the island. By 2100 UTC data
from a reconnaissance plane indicated that Frances' CP had risen to
948 mb, so the wind was adjusted downward slightly to 120 kts. It was
initially thought that this might represent a minor fluctuation in
intensity, but Frances continued to slowly weaken as it progressed west-
northwestward through the Bahamas. The MSW was lowered to 110 kts in
the 09/0300 UTC advisory, placing Frances back at Category 3 status.
At 0600 UTC the hurricane was centered near the northern end of Cat
Island, moving slowly west-northwestward at 8 kts. The MSW at this
time was again decreased slightly to 105 kts. Six hours later Frances
was located over Eleuthera Island or about 225 nm east-southeast of the
southeastern coast of Florida. Frances was continuing to slowly weaken.
While cold convective tops were still being generated over the center,
Hurricane Hunter and Bahamian radar data showed that they were coming
from eyewall fragments in the northeastern quadrant. At 0900 UTC the
CP had risen to 954 mb and the peak FLW was 98 kts. Reconnaissance
data during the later morning indicated that the inner core of Frances
had deteriorated since the previous day, likely due to some upper-level
southwesterly shear between 300-250 mb which was undercutting the
impressive outflow layer.
Shortly before 03/1500 UTC, Little Harbor in the Abacos group reported
a wind gust of 100 kts. At 1800 UTC Frances was centered very near the
southern tip of Great Abaco Island. Winds were down to 100 kts and the
CP at 961 mb as the large hurricane continued to slowly weaken. The
MSW was decreased to 90 kts in the 04/0000 UTC intermediate advisory.
This downgrade to Category 2 status was based upon data from a variety
of sources: radar, satellite, reconnaissance data, and surface reports.
As the day progressed the inner core convection became a little more
symmetric and reconnaissance observations indicated that an eyewall might
be reforming, but Frances was to remain at 90 kts until its landfall on
the Florida coast. At 1200 UTC the hurricane was centered very near
Freeport on Grand Bahama Island. Settlement Point was reporting
sustained winds to hurricane force at that hour with gusts to 70 kts.
The SLP was 974.5 mb and falling rapidly. Strong winds continued to
buffet the island for much of the day as Frances remained stalled. By
1500 UTC WSR-88D radar showed that Frances had developed a large eye
about 70 nm in diameter. During the evening hours of 4 September the
large hurricane began once more to drift west-northwestward toward the
southeastern coast of Florida. The center was located at that hour
approximately 45 nm east-northeast of Palm Beach with strong winds
already affecting the coastline.
The center of Hurricane Frances' large eye reached the coast around
0500 UTC on Sunday, 5 September, near Sewall's Point, Florida. This
location is also in the vicinity of Stuart, Jensen Beach and Port
Salerno. The landfall intensity was 90 kts with the CP near 960 mb.
Hurricane force winds extended outward from the center 75 nm in the
northern semicircle and about 60 nm to the south. Once inland Frances
continued to move west-northwestward across the central Florida Peninsula
while slowly weakening. At 05/1500 UTC Frances' center was located by
radar approximately 130 km east-southeast of Tampa; however, due to the
large size of the circulation, Grand Bahama Island was still reporting
sustained winds of tropical storm force while winds of 40-45 kts in
feeder bands were being reported from the Keys. At 2100 UTC Frances
was downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm, even though the CP was quite
low at 975 mb. As the large storm continued to weaken over central
Florida, it maintained well-organized convective banding and tropical
storm-force winds over a large area. The St. Augustine C-MAN reported
a sustained 56-kt wind observation at 05/2200 UTC, and around the same
time Tampa reported a MSLP of 977.7 mb.
By 0300 UTC on 6 September the center of Tropical Storm Frances was
moving out over the warm waters of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico just
northwest of Tampa with the MSW estimated at 55 kts. The NHC discussion
bulletin at 0900 UTC noted that thunderstorm activity had steadily
increased near the center over the past few hours, and Doppler radar data
from Tampa and Tallahassee, as well as observations from a reconnaissance
mission, indicated that a ragged eye was trying to form. The forecast
for that hour indicated the possibility that Frances might regain
hurricane intensity before making landfall in the eastern Florida
Panhandle. That forecast, however, failed to materialize. The MSW
remained at 55 kts until Frances made landfall near St. Marks, Florida,
around 1800 UTC on the 6th (Labor Day). The final TPC/NHC advisory on
Frances, issued at 07/0300 UTC, downgraded the system to tropical depres-
sion status with the center located about 50 km southwest of Albany,
Georgia. The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 kts
and was expected to make a northward turn during the next 24 hours.
With Frances' winds winding down, the primary concern turned to inland
flooding from the expected heavy rainfall. As has been the procedure for
the past several years, warning responsibility for the remnants of
Frances was handed over to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
(HPC) in Maryland. Tropical Depression Frances continued northwestward
through southwestern Georgia into extreme eastern Alabama before
recurving to a general northeastward heading. At 0300 UTC on 8 September
the depression was located about 55 km northeast of Atlanta, Georgia.
The system continued northward to northeastward, passing through extreme
western North Carolina, the northeastern tip of Tennessee, extreme
western Virginia and into West Virginia. At 09/0300 UTC the remnant LOW
was located over West Virginia about 280 km west of Washington, D. C.,
and had accelerated some to 17 kts. The heading subsequently became
more northeasterly and 24 hours later, when HPC issued their final
advisory, the LOW had crossed western Pennsylvania and New York and had
moved into Canada, being located about 40 km south-southwest of Quebec
City. Frances' remnant LOW was then moving northeastward at 21 kts.
The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) issued a couple of gale warnings on
the LOW, even though the center was inland, as it moved into northern
Maine. The final definite mention of the system was at 10/1200 UTC.
Frances' remnant was the southwesternmost center of a complex LOW with
the main center near 48N/65W, moving to the east-northeast at 40 kts.
The post-Frances center was moving in the same direction at 30 kts.
C. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
Many locations reported gusts well above hurricane intensity, and
several reported sustained winds at or higher than hurricane force.
The highest sustained wind/gust combination I could locate was at
Ft. Pierce, which reported a 1-min avg wind of 70 kts with a peak gust
of 94 kts around 0400 UTC on 5 September. Port Mayaca Lock in Martin
County reported a peak sustained wind of 74 kts at 05/0500 UTC. There
was a report from the public of a gust to 92 kts at 05/1145 UTC from
a location in Martin County (27.12N/80.26W)--the anemometer height was
8.5 meters. Port Orange reported a 3-day rainfall total of 383 mm,
while Deland Coop. in Volusia County reported a storm total of 286 mm.
The Corp of Engineers reported a storm surge value at the St. Lucie
Lock of 1.8 meters. Other surge estimates ranged from 1.8 meters
at Cocoa Beach to 2.4 meters at Vero Beach.
Many, many more observations can be found in the storm report
compiled by the Melbourne NWS office. The link is:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/frances/products/PSH.txt>
As of this writing, the official TPC/NHC storm report on Hurricane
Frances is not yet available online, but it is highly likely that it
will be within the next few weeks. The report will contain additional
observations, and interested persons should periodically check the
following link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004atlan.shtml>
Hurricane Frances produced heavy rainfalls from Florida to Canada.
A significant area in central Florida plus western North Carolina
recorded storm totals exceeding 15 inches (380 mm), while portions of
Virginia and eastern Georgia measured totals exceeding 10 inches
(255 mm). A small zone in southeastern New York experienced a storm
total in excess of 7 inches (178 mm). The following link contains a map
depicting storm total rainfall associated with Frances over the eastern
U. S.:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/frances2004rain.gif>
Following are a few selected storm totals gleaned from the HPC
advisories on Frances. These represent periods of various length ranging
usually from 30 to 42 hours.
Linville Falls, North Carolina 459 mm
Edgemont, North Carolina 422 mm
Lake Toxaway, North Carolina 367 mm
West Point, Ohio 338 mm
Tallulah Falls, Georgia 255 mm
Walhalla, South Carolina 253 mm
Lake City, Florida 236 mm
Ellamoore, West Virginia 229 mm
Nicholls Knobb, Virginia 209 mm
Busted Rock, Virginia 187 mm
White Plains, New York 163 mm
Hartwell Dam, Georgia 157 mm
Altoona, Pennsylvania 148 mm
Middlesboro, Kentucky 129 mm
Newfound Gap, Tennessee 103 mm
Amounts exceeding 50 mm were reported from many stations across New
England. More rainfall information can be found in the HPC advisories,
which are archived at the following link:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical2004/2004storms.shtml>
Frances brought significant rainfall to parts of Canada also. Heavy
rains were recorded just north of eastern Lake Erie and over south-
eastern Ontario. A few spots measured new record 24-hr totals:
Cobourg 82.2 mm
Kingston 137.0 mm
Ottawa (Airport) 123.0 mm
Trenton 111.8 mm
Frances' remnants brought heavy rain also to the Maritime Provinces.
Charlo, New Brunswick, recorded 98.3 mm in association with the storm,
and Miscou Island and Miramichi, New Brunswick, each received over
50 mm. In Newfoundland, Deer Lake and Stephenville each set a new record
for the date (10 September) with 71.9 mm and 65.2 mm, respectively.
Twillingate measured 62.3 mm, while Badger and Corner Brook each recorded
over 50 mm. (A special thanks to Chris Fogarty for the Canadian data.)
D. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
Frances was not nearly as intense as the devastating Charley, but
was much larger. Charley's swath of hurricane-force winds was only
40 nm, whereas sustained hurricane winds in Frances stretched over
a diameter of 135 nm. In areas where there are many trees in very
close proximity to houses, sustained winds of storm force (>48 kts)
with accompanying gusts to hurricane force can cause an amazing amount
of destruction by trees being blown onto houses and cars. The
diameter of storm-force winds in association with Hurricane Charley
was about 90 nm, whereas in Frances winds 50 kts or higher covered a
zone 220 nm across. Hence, Hurricane Frances did not produce the
extreme structural damage caused by Charley over a small area, but did
produce significant damage over a considerable portion of the entire
Florida Peninsula.
Beach erosion was moderate to severe from Cocoa Beach to Vero Beach
with roads and boardwalks experiencing significant damage. Street
flooding was a problem in many cities, and a few tornadoes touched down,
causing minor damage. St. Lucie County was one of the hardest hit
counties with initial reports indicating damage of $2.5 billion to
public and private facilities. The Ft. Pierce Municipal Marina was
destroyed as were most of the hangars at Ft. Pierce Airport. Thousands
of residences experiences roof and tree damage, and many thousands of
mobile homes were damaged or destroyed.
Hurricane Frances caused more damage to the Kennedy Space Center at
Cape Canaveral than any storm in history, according to a Fox News story.
The storm blew an estimated 1000 exterior panels from a giant building
where spaceships are assembled, creating about 40,000 square feet of
"open window" on two sides of the building. Sustained winds reached
60 kts at the facility with gusts to 82 kts. The shuttle hangars and
spaceships were not damaged, but part of the roof came off the building
where the shuttles' thermal tiles are made, resulting in a potential
blow to NASA's return-to-flight effort.
The storm summary on Frances in the latest release by Dr. Bill Gray
and associates at Colorado State University indicates that insured losses
from Frances are estimated at around $4 billion, which would suggest
a total damage figure for the storm of around $8 billion. The hurricane
has also been blamed for 24 deaths. All of the CSU forecast releases
may be found at the following URL:
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/index.html>
The post-storm report prepared by the Melbourne NWS office, referenced
in the above section, also contains further details regarding storm
damage in the counties within its area of jurisdiction. Also, the
official TPC/NHC report, when it becomes available, should be consulted
as the best available source of damage figures relating to Hurricane
Frances.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
HURRICANE GASTON
(TC-07)
27 August - 2 September
-------------------------------------------
Editor's Note: The report below, authored by Kevin Boyle, was written
before the post-analysis upgrade of Tropical Storm Gaston to hurricane
status. However, it does point out the definite possibility of such
happening.
A. Storm Origins
----------------
At 1818 UTC 27 August NHC issued a Special Tropical Disturbance
Statement on a LOW centred about 120 nm southeast of Charleston,
South Carolina. This feature had formed from the remnants of an old
frontal system which extended from the United States East Coast and
out into the Atlantic. This front also instigated the development of
Tropical Storm Hermine on 29 August. The disturbance that became
Gaston was first mentioned in NHC's Tropical Weather Outlooks on 26
August, but it wasn't until the next day that significant development
began. The system then proceeded to organize quite quickly, resulting
in the Special Bulletin at 27/1818 UTC. This statement announced that
advisories would be started at 2100 UTC and a tropical storm watch
would be put into place for portions of the Georgia and South Carolina
coasts.
At the time of the first warning, Tropical Depression Seven was
still loitering nearly 130 nm southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.
Steering currents controlling the system were very weak and continued
to be so during the 28th. However, a ridge developing to the north and
east began to nudge the tropical cyclone westwards during the course of
the day. In the days ahead, this heading was predicted to turn
northwards as the ridge was weakened by a shortwave trough. Tropical
Depression Seven continued to quickly wind up and tropical storm
intensity was soon reached at 1500 UTC 28 August. Visible satellite
imagery showed a curved convective band wrapping halfway around
the centre at this time. The watch issued for South Carolina was
changed to a warning in response to the upgrade.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was sent to investigate
the tropical cyclone and discovered that Gaston was a stronger storm
than previously thought. The plane found 59-kt 450-m flight-level
winds to the north of the centre and a CP of 996 mb. The MSW was
raised to 45 kts at 28/2100 UTC on the basis of these measurements. In
the event Gaston strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane before
landfall, which seemed likely, a hurricane watch was issued for the
South Carolina coast, and this was then raised to a warning at 28/2345
UTC. Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Tropical Storm Gaston
at 29/0300 UTC found 60-kt flight-level winds to the southwest of the
centre, a CP of 994 mb, and reported winds of 35-kts extending about
50 nm or less in all quadrants. In addition, the plane reported a 35-nm
diameter eye with a partial eyewall, and this observation was backed up
by radar from both Charleston and Wilmington which showed that the
eye was open to the south. At 29/1000 UTC Gaston was edging closer to
land and was about 35 nm east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina,
at this time. Its associated MSW had risen to 60 kts and it seemed only
a matter of time before Gaston would attain hurricane intensity. The
storm had made its predicted turn towards the north in response to an
advancing shortwave trough embedded in the westerlies.
Gaston made landfall just west of McClellanville, South Carolina,
around 29/1400 UTC. WSR-88D velocity data indicated that the storm
came ashore at just below hurricane strength. There is every possibility
that Gaston did move onshore as a minimal hurricane and a post-
analysis of the system may upgrade it to a Category One hurricane
later. Tracking northwards, Gaston weakened to a 35-kt tropical storm
at 29/2100 UTC, and after downgrading it to a tropical depression at
30/0300 UTC, NHC stopped issuing advisories at this point and passed
warning responsibility to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.
Initially, the remnants of Gaston were forecast to absorb Tropical
Storm Hermine, but this scenario never materialized. Instead, Hermine
sped northward toward New England, leaving behind the slower moving
Gaston.
By 30/0300 UTC Tropical Depression Gaston had reached the South
Carolina/North Carolina border. Turning northeastwards, Gaston
moved back over water and was located east of the Delmarva Peninsula
and southeast of the Chesapeake Bay at 0300 UTC 31 August. At this
time NHC re-assumed warning responsibility and upgraded Gaston
back to tropical storm status based on observations of 43 kts (10-min
avg) from the Chesapeake Light C-man Station (with gusts of 49 kts) and
also a ship report of 36-kt sustained winds at 31/0000 UTC about 35 nm
southeast of the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. These wind reports
were from the south and southeastern parts of the circulation with no
tropical storm-force winds being recorded over land.
Accelerating northeastwards, satellite imagery showed limited deep
convection in association with Gaston, and there appeared to be a
frontal-like band developing to the southeast of the centre. The MSW
had remained at 35 kts and overall, Tropical Storm Gaston was becoming
less tropical as it began to interact with a frontal zone. However,
the storm maintained enough deep convection around its centre to be
classified as a tropical cyclone. Despite Gaston's passage over 16 Deg C
SSTs, the tropical cyclone appeared to be holding its own for awhile,
and satellite intensity estimates at 01/0300 UTC had even risen slightly,
although buoy reports near the centre indicated that the MSW might
have fallen. However Gaston was kept at tropical storm intensity as a
compromise between CI estimates and surface observations.
By dawn satellite imagery indicated that Gaston had become mostly
extratropical, and a jet stream was creating a sharp boundary to the
north of the cloud shield. NHC upped the MSW to 45 kts on their final
advisory at 01/0900 UTC to comply with satellite estimates and a 45-kt
wind speed measurement from Buoy WRYG. The extratropical system then
sped east-northeastwards at around 30 kts out into the Atlantic and
passed just southeast of Newfoundland on the 2nd of September. Bracknell
weather charts indicate that Gaston's remnant LOW (995 mb) continued
northeast across the north Atlantic on the 3rd of September, losing its
identity northwest of the British Isles the next day.
C. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
Tropical Storm Gaston produced some impressive rainfall totals in
North and South Carolina. The following were obtained from the HPC
storm summaries. In South Carolina, Kingstree had a 24-hour total of
250 mm, while Turbeville reported 178 mm in 24-hours, both ending at
0000 UTC 30 August. Other 24-hour totals above 100 mm were
Manning (140 mm) and Charleston (103 mm) during the period 0000
UTC 29 August-0000 UTC 30 August. Darlington measured a 30-hour
total of 133 mm ending at 0600 UTC 30 August. The only other rainfall
amount exceeding 100 mm was from Florence, which recorded 119 mm
in the 30 hours ending at 0600 UTC 30 August.
In North Carolina, Lauringburg-Maxton Airport received 125 mm in
the 30 hours ending 0600 UTC 30 August while Lumberton recorded 80 mm
during the same period. Camp Mackall measured a storm total of 142 mm
and Pope AFB reported a storm total of 86 mm.
D. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
News sources indicate that Gaston unleashed torrential rains across
North and South Carolina. Also, central parts of Virginia received a
foot or more of rainfall which led to serious flooding. Five people were
confirmed dead in Richmond, Virginia, as a result of Gaston and
damages there were estimated at $20 million. The overall death toll is
believed to be nine.
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE
(TC-08)
27 - 31 August
--------------------------------------
At 2100 UTC on 29 August satellite images indicated that an area of
low pressure located roughly 280 nm southeast of Cape Hatteras, North
Carolina, had developed sufficiently to be classified as a tropical
storm. Advisories were initiated on Tropical Storm Hermine at this
time and the initial MSW was set at 35 kts. Hermine developed from a
disturbance embedded in the same frontal zone that had spawned its twin,
Tropical Storm Gaston. At the time of its inception, the centre of
Hermine's circulation was located to the north of the associated deep
convection due to the effects of some vertical shear. However, some
additional strengthening was expected. Basically, Hermine was being
controlled by the same HIGH that had gradually pushed Tropical Storm
Gaston into South Carolina, and the system was forecast to follow suit
except that the forecast track kept the storm away from the U.S. East
Coast. Therefore, no watches or warnings were deemed necessary.
Another reason for this decision was that Hermine was forecast initially
to be swallowed up by the larger extratropical circulation of Gaston.
The MSW of Hermine was nudged up a little to 40 kts at 0300 UTC on
30 August, but the LLCC was still exposed to the north of the deep
convection. The tropical cyclone had turned towards the north-
northwest at this time, and six hours later, it began to race northwards
at 16 kts. Based on satellite intensity estimates, the intensity was
upped to 45 kts and was kept at this intensity through 30/1500 UTC based
on a 30/0947 UTC QuikScat pass which showed 45 to 50-kt winds southeast
of the LLCC. Because Hermine didn't appear to be weakening in satellite
images, precautionary tropical storm warnings were issued at 30/1700 UTC
for southeastern Massachusetts. The peak intensity of 45 kts was main-
tained for the 30/2100 UTC advisory. Tropical Storm Hermine was now
expected to remain a separate entity, and its rapid northerly motion
caused it to overtake the slower-moving Gaston.
Hermine was basically a low-level cloud swirl devoid of deep
convection at 0300 UTC on 31 August with its MSW lowered to 35 kts, but
it was maintained as a tropical storm for this advisory even though Buoy
44004 reported sustained winds of only 30 kts and sea heights of
4.6 metres. This was to allow for a 35-kt wind maximum which could have
possibly existed close to the tropical cyclone's centre. Satellite
intensity estimates also supported 35-kt winds. Hermine then came ashore
near New Bedford, Massachusetts, around 31/0600 UTC. Maximum observed
surface winds were no more than 20 to 25 kts, and as the system had no
significant deep convection to speak of, Hermine was considered extra-
tropical and the last advisory issued on the system at 31/0900 UTC.
Hermine brought some heavy rain and wind gusts to near and slightly
in excess of tropical storm force early on the 31st, but no sustained
winds of tropical storm intensity were recorded in the landfall area.
Maximum rainfall amounts attributable to Tropical Storm Hermine were
mostly less than 13 mm, but rainbands from Gaston were close behind,
making it difficult to make an exact determination of rainfall totals
between these two systems. Highest tides reached 0.3 metre above the
predicted elevations as the storm passed by.
There were no reports of damage or casualties as a result of Tropical
Storm Hermine.
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for August: 1 tropical depression
3 tropical storms **
1 hurricane
** - one of these storms (Howard) became a hurricane and intense
hurricane in early September
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
locations west of longitude 140W): discussions, public advisories,
forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have
been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to
sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise
noted.
Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for August
----------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone activity was near normal in the Eastern North Pacific
during August. August averages for the period 1971-2003 are about 4 NS,
2 H, and one IH. August, 2004, produced four NS but only one hurricane;
however, the final storm, Howard, became a Category 4 hurricane during
the early days of September. Estelle formed rather far west from the
same tropical wave which had earlier spawned Atlantic Hurricane Charley
and moved into the Central North Pacific. The other three storms formed
much nearer the Mexican coast but moved generally northwestward away
from the mainland with only minimal effects felt along the coastline.
A special thanks to John Wallace for writing the reports on Georgette
and Howard, and to Kevin Boyle for writing the report on Frank/TD-09E.
NOTE: The official TPC/NHC storm reports for most of the Northeast
Pacific basin tropical cyclones are now available online at the
following link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004epac.shtml>
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE
(TC-07E)
19 - 26 August
------------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
According to TPC/NHC's Eastern North Pacific monthly summary for
August, the precursor of Tropical Storm Estelle was the same African
wave which had spawned Caribbean Hurricane Charley. The wave was first
mentioned in the Pacific in a STWO issued at 1700 UTC on 12 August.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low-pressure area had
become a little better organized about 650 nm south of Cabo San Lucas.
However, upper-level winds were only marginally favorable for further
development. The system was then moving west-northwestward at about
13 kts. The system was dropped from the outlooks after 1100 UTC on the
14th as it had become less organized about 700 nm southwest of Cabo San
Lucas.
At 0500 UTC on 18 August the system was located in the far western
part of the Eastern North Pacific region about 1225 nm southwest of Cabo
San Lucas. It was moving westward at 13 kts and conditions appeared
somewhat conducive to further intensification. As the 18th wore on the
disturbance gradually exhibited increased organization, and at 0900 UTC
on 19 August, the first NHC advisory on Tropical Depression 07E was
issued. TD-07E was then located over 1400 nm west-southwest of Cabo
San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
The depression was rather slow to intensify. Deep convection
decreased both in coverage and organization during the afternoon of the
19th, and Dvorak classifications were still at T2.0 or lower. Deep
convection began to make a comeback during the evening, and the system
was upgraded to Tropical Storm Estelle at 0900 UTC on 20 August when
located about 1600 nm west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Dvorak estimates
had reached 35 kts from all three satellite agencies, and a recent Quik-
Scat pass had shown some 35-40 kt rain-flagged vectors. The newly-named
Estelle was tracking west-northwestward at 12 kts south of a subtropical
ridge to the north. During the 20th the cyclone continued to strengthen
with improved banding features noted in both the northern and southern
semicircles, and by evening a cold CDO with tops to -82 C had formed.
The MSW had risen to 55 kts by the time Estelle crossed longitude 140W
and into Honolulu's AOR around 21/0400 UTC.
The first CPHC advisory found Estelle located about 865 nm east-
southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and moving northwestward at 9 kts. The MSW
was upped to 60 kts based on an improved satellite signature, but
Estelle's intensification phase was about to be halted due to increasing
southerly shear along the eastern side of an upper-level trough running
north/south just east of the Big Island. Satellite CI estimates at
21/1800 UTC were still 65 kts from SAB and the Honolulu forecast office,
so the 2100 UTC intensity remained at 60 kts. However, by 22/0300 UTC
the LLCC had become exposed to the southeast of the deep convection and
the intensity was reduced to 55 kts--and the forecaster added that this
might be quite generous. The MSW continued to drop rapidly and Estelle
was reduced to tropical depression status at 23/0000 UTC when located
about 700 nm east-southeast of Hilo.
As Estelle weakened, it returned to a more westerly track as the LLCC,
now decoupled from the mid and upper-level circulation, got caught up in
the trade wind flow. Interestingly, after Estelle had been downgraded
to depression status, the Hawaiian trough with its associated shear began
to move west ahead of the tropical cyclone, allowing a mid and upper-
level ridge to build to the west and north of Estelle. A Hurricane
Hunter aircraft flew through the system on the morning of 23 August and
reported a FLW of 35 kts at 1500 m about 55 nm north of the LLCC. Based
on this the MSW was retained at 30 kts. During this time some of the
models were hinting at the possibility of some modest re-intensification
due to the slightly improved environment, but Estelle continued to slowly
weaken as it moved west-southwestward with the trade winds.
The MSW was reduced to 25 kts at 24/0000 UTC, but CPHC continued
writing advisories for another 48 hours. During the morning of the 25th
convection increased within the outer portions of the circulation, but
no concentration of convection near the LLCC was observed. This renewed
thunderstorm activity was concentrated mainly around the western to
southwestern side some 90 nm from the circulation center with scattered
convection seen within about 130 nm to the east of the center. The
convection was likely in response to instability caused by a weak trough
extending southward from Hawaii, and also possibly to the slightly warmer
SSTs the depression was moving over. However, by the late afternoon of
the 25th the convection was waning and there appeared to be very little
evidence of westerly winds to the south of the center. Hence, the final
advisory on Tropical Depression Estelle was issued at 26/0300 UTC with
the weak 20-kt center located about 300 nm south of the southern tip of
the Big Island of Hawaii.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
Storm Estelle.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
HURRICANE FRANK
(TC-08E)
23 - 26 August
---------------
AND
Tropical Depression
(TC-09E)
23 - 26 August
---------------------------------------
Hurricane Frank originated from the remnants of Tropical Storm Earl,
which had degenerated into a tropical wave in the Caribbean and
subsequently crossed Central America before emerging into the Eastern
North Pacific basin around 18/19 August. The ex-Earl wave was monitored
on NHC/TPC's Tropical Weather Outlooks as the system tracked south of
Mexico until finally satellite images began to show a persistent CDO on
the morning of the 23rd. This feature and the likelihood of further
development prompted NHC to issue the first advisory package on Tropical
Depression 08E at 0900 UTC on 23 August. The depression was then centred
approximately 375 nm south of Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula. Moving northwestward at 10 kts, TD-08E
quickly organized to become Tropical Storm Frank at 23/1500 UTC.
A 23/0927 UTC AMSU overpass indicated a tight inner core of convection
with a long convective band that had wrapped more than halfway around
the centre.
Also of interest, a very small disturbance was developing about
700 nm west of Frank and this was to become Tropical Depression 09E.
But before the first advisory would be issued on this system, Tropical
Storm Frank exploded into rapid strengthening mode which took NHC a
little by surprise. The MSW was raised to 55 kts based on the
appearance of a banding eye feature in both visible and infrared
satellite imagery. A well-defined circular eye feature was also visible
on 23/0927 UTC AQUA and 23/1459 UTC SSM/I overpasses. Shortly after the
23/1500 UTC advisory, NHC issued a special advisory denoting this sudden
intensification and accordingly updated the forecast positions and
maximum winds. At 1645 UTC (the issuance time of the special advisory)
Frank was located approximately 335 nm south-southwest of Cabo San
Lucas. Frank reached hurricane intensity at 23/2100 UTC, the same time
that the small disturbance was promoted to Tropical Depression 09E
with 25-kt winds. TD-09E was located about 850 nm west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja and about 640 nm west of Hurricane Frank.
At 2100 UTC on 23 August Tropical Depression 09E was moving slowly
eastward at 2 kts. This movement was to be the only suggestion that
Hurricane Frank might be influencing TD-09E's track, and there was
no further interaction observed between the two storms during their
lifetimes. TD-09E was located over marginally warm water and near the
eastern edge of dry air at mid-to upper levels--not the best ingredients
for tropical cyclone development--and the forecast for this system was
for no more than tropical storm intensity. Also, the close proximity of
Frank was expected to limit intensification. Infrared images and micro-
wave data showed a poorly-organized cyclone with the LLCC located to the
south of the deep convection, and this appearance was maintained through
the 24th. The only event worth noting that day was that the MSW was
raised to 30 kts after satellite estimates reached T2.0. Also, TD-09E
had turned onto a westerly heading which was to take it into an
increasingly hostile environment and eventual oblivion. Meanwhile,
Hurricane Frank, which was on a northwesterly heading, had continued its
strengthening phase and reached a peak intensity of 75 kts at 24/1500
UTC when located about 300 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas.
Hurricane Frank crossed the 26 Deg C isotherm late on the 24th and as
it did so, began to weaken. The intensity was brought down to 65 kts at
0300 UTC on 25 August, and as SSTs were becoming progressively colder
ahead of the storm, both Frank, as well as its neighbour, Tropical
Depression 09E, were forecast to be dissipating in a couple of days.
In fact, Frank blew itself out just as quickly as it had rapidly
strengthened into a hurricane. By 25/0900 UTC the central convection
had diminished considerably, leaving some weak banding features in the
southeastern quadrant. Frank was downgraded to a tropical storm with
50-kt winds at this time, and this intensity was maintained for another
six hours, after which it had become a virtually convection-free vortex.
Frank was downgraded to a tropical depression at 26/0300 UTC when
centred approximately 465 nm west of Cabo San Lucas. TD-09E was faring
no better. The little remaining deep convection had been stripped away
from this weak system by the moderate south-southwesterly shearing
conditions. Both Frank and TD-09E continued for a little while longer
as westward-moving low-level swirls of clouds until NHC signed both their
death warrants at 26/1500 UTC. Frank's final position was approximately
550 nm west of Cabo San Lucas, and TD-09E's final location was roughly
1200 nm west-southwest of the same point.
There were no damages or casualties associated with either of these
systems.
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE
(TC-10E)
26 - 30 August
--------------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
A cyclonic disturbance off the southwest coast of Mexico steadily
organized late on 24 August and into the following day, quick on the
heels of Hurricane Frank. The disturbance tracked slowly west-
northwestward, paralleling the coast, and satellite data, in conjunction
with a ship report, warranted its upgrade to Tropical Depression Ten-E
at 1500 UTC on 16 August when located approximately 315 nm south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
The depression continued on the same west-northwesterly track it had
followed as a disturbance, and quickly intensified to become Tropical
Storm Georgette on the second advisory, at 2100 UTC on 26 August.
Remarkable visible GOES-10 imagery from this time showed Georgette
accompanying no less than three tropical cyclone remnants in the North-
east Pacific basin: ex-Hurricane Frank and ex-Tropical Depression Nine-E
to its northwest, and the fizzling vortex that was once Tropical Storm
Estelle southwest of the Big Island of Hawaii.
Georgette strengthened steadily, though less than it would have
without moderate easterly shear. It reached its first peak 1-min
MSW of 50 kts at 0900 UTC on 27 August, as it made a slow turn to a
more westerly track south of an expanding ridge. Georgette was then
centered about 350 nm south of Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula. Shear continued to erode Georgette's
convection, causing it to weaken slightly on the 28th while it settled
on a due westward course. However, convection made a comeback early on
the 29th, and the storm reached its second peak of 50 kts at 0900 UTC
that day with the lowest CP estimated at 997 mb.
Georgette weakened slightly again after its peak, but maintained a
more or less steady state as it traveled parallel to the 26 C isotherm
until the next day, when cool SSTs and stable air finally made themselves
felt in addition to the persistent shear. Georgette weakened rapidly to
a depression on the 30th, and the final advisory was issued at 1500 UTC
that day, placing the weakening center about 825 nm west-southwest of
Cabo San Lucas. Its large remnant vortex could be tracked in satellite
imagery for some time; as late as September 4th it underwent a photogenic
interaction with another LOW well to its north. By the 6th, though,
Georgette's remnants had fully dissipated.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
There are no known casualties or damage associated with Tropical
Storm Georgette.
(Report written by John Wallace)
HURRICANE HOWARD
(TC-11E)
30 August - 5 September
-------------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
The disturbance that became Hurricane Howard developed quickly off
the southwestern Mexican coast late on 29 August and tracked west-
northwestward in the typical fashion of NEP storms. Its organization
improved over the course of a day, warranting its upgrade to