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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary February 2004
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

                 MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY

                            FEBRUARY, 2004
                                

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

  *************************************************************************

                           FEBRUARY HIGHLIGHTS

  --> First Northwest Pacific tropical storm of the year develops
  --> Severe tropical cyclone strikes northwestern Australia
  --> South Pacific cyclone damages Vanuatu

  *************************************************************************

              ***** Feature of the Month for February *****

                  TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA
                       for the AUSTRALIAN REGION

  A. Introduction
  ---------------

     This month's feature is the third of three highlighting tropical
  cyclone climatological data for the Southern Hemisphere.  The source
  for the data was a set of tropical cyclone tracks sent to me by Mr.
  Charles Neumann.    These had been prepared in association with a
  hurricane risk analysis (HURISK) study he was performing for the U. S.
  Navy.  Earlier studies had been accomplished for the Atlantic and North
  Pacific basins.  The tracks and intensities were based upon available
  data sets for the various Southern Hemisphere basins from the regional
  warning centers, and from 1980 onward, JTWC's Best Track files were
  utilized as an additional source of data.

     The data set begins with the 1960-61 Southern Hemisphere cyclone
  season and extends through 2001-2002, and I have included the entire
  period.  While the annual number of intense tropical cyclones
  (MSW < 100 kts) increases somewhat around 1970, the numbers of tropical
  storms and hurricanes during the pre-1970 period are not significantly
  different than for years following the advent of meteorological
  satellites.  No doubt in pre-satellite years many cyclones were not
  detected, especially in the vast island-free South Indian Ocean.  But
  in some areas, such as northern Australia, where most storms form near
  land and affect the coastline, and also in the island-rich South Pacific,
  it is likely that most significant tropical cyclones were at least
  detected (even if not tracked accurately) before operational satellite
  coverage became complete in the late 1960s.


  B. Definition of Parameters
  ---------------------------

     The following definitions apply:

     NS  - a tropical cyclone with a peak 1-min avg MSW >= 34 kts
     H   - a tropical cyclone with a peak 1-min avg MSW >= 64 kts
     IH  - a tropical cyclone with a peak 1-min avg MSW >= 96 kts
     NSD - four 6-hour periods in which a NS is operating
     HD  - four 6-hour periods in which a H is operating
     IHD - four 6-hour periods in which an IH is operating
     NTC - (((Total NS/Avg NS) + (Total H/Avg H) + (Total IH/Avg H) +
           (Total NSD/Avg NSD) + (Total HD/Avg HD) +
           (Total IHD/Avg IHD))/6) x 100%

     I have included another seasonal measure of the overall tropical
  cyclone level of activity which I developed--the Tropical Cyclone
  Index (TCI).  It is a summation of the MSW for each 6-hourly data
  point, divided by 100 (kts) with the resultant quotient then squared.
  Thus, it is identical to Dr. Bill Gray's Hurricane Destruction Potential
  (HDP) except that I begin the TCI with 34 kts, whereas the HDP
  calculation begins with 64 kts.  It also very similar to the index
  which NOAA uses in their Atlantic seasonal forecasts--a summation
  of the square of the velocity--except that I've scaled the TCI
  to a baseline of 100 kts in order to avoid huge numbers.

     My reason for including the TCI is that it is independent of the
  period of data covered.  The NTC is a good indicator of overall
  tropical cyclone activity, but it changes for all years whenever
  a new baseline period is utilized, whether this is done on a yearly
  basis or every 5 or 10 years.  Thus, for example, 1950's NTC for
  the 1950-1990 period is not the same as it was for the 1950-2000
  period, etc.   The TCI correlates very closely with the NTC, however.
  I calculated correlation coefficients for the NTC vs TCI data sets
  for several basins, and the two indices always correlated to around
  97-98%.  Thus, the TCI is an absolute index independent of any average
  values of the various parameters, yet it correlates well with the NTC
  as computed by Dr. Gray's rule.


  C. Southern Hemisphere Basins
  -----------------------------

     Dividing up the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclogenetical
  regions is rather problematic.  The Northern Hemisphere basins are
  rather neatly divided geographically by landmasses and regions of
  very infrequent tropical cyclone formation, but storms form in
  the Southern Hemisphere in a rather continuous band from the
  Mozambique Channel off the eastern coast of Africa eastward across
  the South Indian Ocean, through the seas and gulfs north of
  Australia, into the Coral Sea and across the South Pacific to the
  region of French Polynesia well east of the International Dateline.
  Several different schemes for dividing the Southern Hemisphere into
  useful basins for statistical purposes have been proposed, but none
  are completely satisfactory in all respects.   For my purposes, I am
  going to present statistics for various longitudinal regions, some
  of which overlap.

     This monthly feature focuses on the Australian Region of warning
  responsibility between longitudes 90E and 160E.  The November, 2003,
  summary covered the entire Southern Hemisphere and several sub-regions
  of the South Indian Ocean, while the December, 2003, summary featured
  the South Pacific Ocean.  Due to time constraints, I did not calculate
  the full regime of parameters for the 2002-2003 season, but I did
  glean the numbers of NS, H and IH for the various areas, and these
  are summarized following each table.  The four regions covered this
  month are:

     (1) Entire Australian Region from 90E to 160E
     (2) Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean (90E to 135E)
     (3) Northeast Australia/Coral Sea (135E to 160E)
     (4) Gulf of Carpentaria/Arafura and Timor Seas (105E to 142E)

  Region (1) encompasses the area for which Australia's three TCWCs
  (Brisbane, Darwin, Perth) have warning responsibility, plus includes
  the small area covered by the Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea, warning
  centre.   Since longitude 135E rather neatly bisects Australia and
  also lies just inland from the western shorline of the Gulf of
  Carpentaria, and given that the frequency of tropical cyclone activity
  is rather low in that region, the meridian serves as a convenient
  dividing line between cyclones affecting primarily northeastern
  Australia and those affecting northwestern Australia.  Beginning with
  the 2000-2001 cyclone season, I have treated the areas east and west
  of 135E as separate sub-basins in the monthly summaries.  Finally,
  I have included statistics for the zone between 142E and 105E, which
  covers the seas and gulfs along the northern Australian coastline
  (Gulf of Carpentaria, Arafura Sea and Timor Sea).


  D. Tables of Tropical Cyclone Data
  ----------------------------------

     The tropical cyclone data in tabular format follows.  The various
  intensity categories are based on a MSW averaged over 1-minute.  This
  results in slightly higher numbers of cyclones than would be obtained
  utilizing a 10-minute averaging period, as all the Southern Hemisphere
  TCWCs do.   The year listed in the leftmost column is the year in
  which the season ends; e.g., 1961 represents the 12-month period from
  1 July 1960 through 30 June 1961.


  (1)           ENTIRE AUSTRALIAN REGION  (90E - 160E)

  Year    NS     H    IH     NSD       HD      IHD     NTC    TCI
  ---------------------------------------------------------------
  1961     9     4     2    52.00    16.25     2.50     95     69
  1962     6     0     0    34.50      .00      .00     20     25
  1963    15     2     1    40.25     2.25      .25     53     36
  1964    11     6     0    43.75     8.50      .00     59     45
  1965     9     2     0    37.75     3.00      .00     35     29
  1966     9     2     0    28.25     3.00      .00     32     24
  1967    13     4     1    50.00     9.50     1.75     78     54
  1968     8     2     0    27.75     3.00      .00     30     26
  1969    10     0     0    16.50      .00      .00     19     11
  1970     8     3     0    29.25     4.00      .00     35     28
  1971    13     4     1    54.00     6.50     1.50     74     58
  1972    15    10     3    68.00    20.75     2.75    143     95
  1973    12     9     1    40.50    17.25      .25     90     62
  1974    19     9     0    77.75    15.75      .00    101     83
  1975    17     3     3    57.50    10.75     4.75    120     81
  1976    16     8     2    67.75    23.00     4.25    142    105
  1977    13     5     1    36.25     8.50      .75     69     42
  1978     9     4     2    39.50    15.00     3.25     94     65
  1979    13     4     1    54.00    12.25     2.00     85     66
  1980    12     9     6    66.25    26.50     8.25    201    129
  1981    14     7     6    58.25    25.25     8.00    191    111
  1982    17     6     2    64.00     8.75      .50     94     67
  1983     7     4     1    38.75    12.75     2.25     73     61
  1984    18    11     2    56.75    14.25     1.75    123     89
  1985    19    11     5    78.50    26.00     3.50    183    120
  1986    16     9     3    52.50    18.25     2.25    129     76
  1987     9     4     2    35.00     5.25     1.50     69     39
  1988     5     4     0    19.50     2.50      .00     29     19
  1989    13     6     4    44.75    16.75     6.75    147     85
  1990    14     8     1    57.25    15.75     3.50    113     75
  1991    11     5     2    50.25    13.25     3.75    104     73
  1992    11     9     5    48.75    26.00     8.50    186    110
  1993     9     3     2    41.25     9.50     2.25     78     51
  1994    14     6     3    46.75    22.00     5.75    142     87
  1995     6     5     4    25.25    11.00     3.50    100     47
  1996    15     8     3    56.00    16.00     3.50    131     79
  1997    17     7     3    73.50    19.50     4.25    146    107
  1998    11     6     2    55.75    14.25     2.00    100     75
  1999    20     8     5    56.25    19.75     9.25    194    107
  2000    13     7     4    54.75    20.00     7.75    164     98
  2001     8     3     1    24.00     6.50     1.00     51     31
  2002    11     3     1    25.50     5.25     1.75     58     31

  Avg.   12.3   5.5   2.0   47.3     12.7      2.8

  2002-2003 Season - NS: 10     H: 3      IH: 2


  (2)  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN  (90E - 135E)

  Year    NS     H    IH     NSD       HD      IHD     NTC    TCI
  ---------------------------------------------------------------
  1961     5     4     2    38.25    16.25     2.50    123     60
  1962     4     0     0    30.50      .00      .00     25     23
  1963     8     1     1    28.25     1.50      .25     53     26
  1964     5     3     0    19.25     4.50      .00     42     21
  1965     7     2     0    22.25     3.00      .00     41     19
  1966     8     2     0    24.75     3.00      .00     44     22
  1967     5     2     0    17.50     3.75      .00     36     17
  1968     5     2     0    20.25     3.00      .00     36     19
  1969     6     0     0    10.00      .00      .00     18      6
  1970     4     2     0    19.25     2.75      .00     33     19
  1971     8     3     1    29.75     5.50     1.50     80     36
  1972     5     3     1    21.75     6.50      .75     65     31
  1973     9     7     1    32.00    15.75      .25    110     53
  1974    11     7     0    54.25    10.50      .00    103     58
  1975    14     3     3    51.00    10.75     4.75    165     75
  1976     8     4     2    37.00    12.75     4.25    137     63
  1977     6     4     0    23.75     6.25      .00     55     28
  1978     5     4     2    29.75    15.00     3.25    122     58
  1979     7     2     0    21.25     1.75      .00     38     19
  1980     8     7     5    44.75    20.75     7.75    233    101
  1981    12     7     6    49.25    25.25     8.00    266    103
  1982    13     3     0    44.25     4.00      .00     72     41
  1983     5     3     0    16.50     3.00      .00     38     18
  1984    12     6     0    32.00     9.25      .00     86     42
  1985    11     8     3    57.25    19.75     1.25    171     88
  1986    11     6     3    40.00    13.75     2.25    150     59
  1987     5     3     2    23.75     5.00     1.50     81     30
  1988     3     2     0     7.25     1.75      .00     22      8
  1989     9     4     2    32.50    10.75     2.75    120     54
  1990    11     5     1    39.00    12.50     3.50    130     58
  1991     8     3     1    30.50     6.75     1.75     85     42
  1992     5     5     4    32.25    19.00     7.25    192     77
  1993     4     0     0    14.25      .00      .00     16     10
  1994    11     4     1    29.00    11.50     1.00     98     43
  1995     3     3     3    14.00     7.50     2.50     96     30
  1996    12     6     3    40.00    15.00     3.50    165     66
  1997    11     4     2    45.75    11.50     2.50    131     62
  1998     6     3     1    19.50     7.00      .75     67     30
  1999    15     8     5    50.00    19.75     9.25    266    103
  2000    11     7     4    47.25    20.00     7.75    228     93
  2001     7     3     1    20.75     6.50     1.00     71     28
  2002     7     2     1    20.00     4.25     1.75     68     27

  Avg.    7.9   3.7   1.5   30.5      9.0      2.0

  2002-2003 Season - NS: 6      H: 2      IH: 2


  (3)        NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA  (135E - 160E)

  Year    NS     H    IH     NSD       HD      IHD     NTC    TCI
  ---------------------------------------------------------------
  1961     4     0     0    13.75      .00      .00     26      9
  1962     2     0     0     4.00      .00      .00     10      2
  1963     8     1     0    12.00      .75      .00     50      9
  1964     7     3     0    24.50     4.00      .00     93     24
  1965     4     0     0    16.00      .00      .00     28     10
  1966     2     0     0     3.50      .00      .00     10      3
  1967     8     2     1    32.50     5.75     1.75    170     37
  1968     3     0     0     7.50      .00      .00     17      7
  1969     5     0     0     6.75      .00      .00     23      5
  1970     4     1     0    10.00     1.25      .00     38      9
  1971     7     1     0    24.25     1.00      .00     60     22
  1972    10     7     2    46.25    14.25     2.00    311     64
  1973     4     2     0     8.50     1.50      .00     47      9
  1974     8     2     0    23.50     5.25      .00     92     25
  1975     4     0     0     6.50      .00      .00     19      6
  1976     8     4     0    30.75    10.25      .00    140     43
  1977     7     1     1    12.50     2.25      .75    100     14
  1978     4     0     0     9.75      .00      .00     22      6
  1979     7     2     1    32.75    10.50     2.00    194     47
  1980     5     2     1    21.50     5.75      .50    122     29
  1981     3     0     0     9.00      .00      .00     18      8
  1982     7     3     2    19.75     4.75      .50    161     26
  1983     2     1     1    22.25     9.75     2.25    159     42
  1984     7     5     2    24.75     5.00     1.75    214     47
  1985     9     3     2    21.50     6.25     2.25    214     33
  1986     5     3     0    12.50     4.50      .00     77     17
  1987     5     1     0    11.25      .25      .00     38      8
  1988     2     2     0    12.25      .75      .00     41     11
  1989     4     2     2    12.25     6.00     4.00    216     31
  1990     4     3     0    18.25     3.25      .00     74     17
  1991     3     2     1    19.75     6.50     2.00    150     31
  1992     6     4     1    16.50     7.00     1.25    162     33
  1993     6     3     2    27.00     9.50     2.25    225     41
  1994     3     2     2    17.75    10.50     4.75    255     44
  1995     3     2     1    11.25     3.50     1.00    106     17
  1996     5     2     0    16.25     1.00      .00     56     13
  1997     7     3     1    27.75     8.00     1.75    182     44
  1998     7     3     1    36.50     7.25     1.25    176     45
  1999     5     0     0     6.25      .00      .00     22      4
  2000     3     0     0     7.50      .00      .00     17      5
  2001     3     0     0     3.50      .00      .00     13      3
  2002     4     1     0     5.50     1.00      .00     32      4

  Avg.    5.1   1.7   0.6   16.8      3.7      0.8

  2002-2003 Season - NS: 5      H: 1      IH: 0


  (4)    SEAS AND GULFS OFF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA (105E - 142E)
             (Gulf of Carpentaria/Arafura Sea/Timor Sea)

  Year    NS     H    IH     NSD       HD      IHD     NTC    TCI
  ---------------------------------------------------------------
  1961     6     4     2    39.00    16.25     2.50    156     61
  1962     5     0     0    30.75      .00      .00     33     23
  1963     6     1     1    26.75     1.50      .25     58     25
  1964     5     3     0    27.25     5.00      .00     59     29
  1965     9     2     0    29.25     3.00      .00     60     23
  1966     5     1     0    17.00     2.75      .00     36     16
  1967     5     2     0    17.50     3.75      .00     44     17
  1968     5     0     0    15.25      .00      .00     23     10
  1969     5     0     0    10.50      .00      .00     19      6
  1970     4     2     0    18.75     2.75      .00     40     19
  1971     7     4     1    32.50     6.50     1.50    106     41
  1972     6     3     1    18.25     6.25      .75     80     27
  1973    10     8     1    26.50    12.00      .25    131     42
  1974     9     6     0    39.00     9.25      .00    104     43
  1975     9     3     3    33.25    10.75     4.75    178     60
  1976     7     3     2    32.00    11.00     4.25    154     56
  1977     6     5     1    22.75     8.50      .75     99     33
  1978     6     2     1    22.50     8.25     2.75    104     38
  1979     6     2     0    17.75     2.00      .00     42     17
  1980     8     5     3    30.75    10.50     4.00    176     59
  1981     9     5     5    34.00    19.75     6.50    256     77
  1982    12     3     1    38.50     4.50      .25     99     37
  1983     4     2     0    11.25     2.25      .00     34     13
  1984     9     6     1    25.00     9.25     1.50    123     41
  1985    12     8     4    42.25    18.50     2.50    226     75
  1986     9     4     2    28.75    10.50     2.00    137     44
  1987     6     4     2    28.00     5.25     1.50    110     34
  1988     0     0     0      .00      .00      .00      0      0
  1989     5     4     2    20.75    10.75     2.75    130     44
  1990     6     5     1    21.00     8.50      .50     95     29
  1991     5     1     0    20.00     3.50      .00     40     24
  1992     3     2     2    15.75     8.50     4.75    127     39
  1993     4     0     0    14.50      .00      .00     20     10
  1994     9     4     1    21.75     7.00     1.00    100     29
  1995     4     3     3    16.25     7.50     2.50    121     32
  1996     9     5     3    36.75    13.25     3.50    184     61
  1997     6     2     0    29.25     3.50      .00     54     29
  1998     7     3     1    21.50     6.50      .75     85     31
  1999     9     5     4    28.25    11.75     6.75    222     65
  2000     9     6     4    29.00     9.50     3.00    182     49
  2001     7     2     1    19.25     3.00     1.00     72     21
  2002     4     1     1    10.25     3.00     1.75     61     18

  Avg.    6.6   3.1   1.3   24.3      6.8      1.5

  2002-2003 Season - NS: 7      H: 2      IH: 1


  E. Monthly Tropical Cyclone Information
  ---------------------------------------

     I did not have the time to attempt to ferret out monthly information
  regarding tropical cyclone genesis.     Patrick Hoareau has already
  compiled much information on Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones,
  including monthly tropical cyclone frequencies, and this can be accessed
  at the following link:

     http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/stats.htm>

  I would encourage those interested in detailed statistics of Southern
  Hemisphere tropical cyclones to visit the above website.  More infor-
  mation describing Patrick's work can be found in the monthly feature
  in the February, 2003, summary.

  *************************************************************************
  
                           ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for February:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for February:  No tropical cyclones
               
  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for February:  1 tropical storm **

  ** - classified as a tropical storm only by JTWC


             Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for February
             ------------------------------------------------

     One tropical cyclone came to life in the Northwest Pacific basin
  during February, the month of the year with the lowest average number
  of tropical cyclone formations.   JTWC was the only warning agency to
  classify TC-01W as a tropical storm--all the Asian TCWCs treated it as
  a tropical depression.  (PAGASA assigned the name Ambo when the system
  briefly entered the eastern extremity of their AOR.)  A special thanks
  to Kevin Boyle for writing the summary for Tropical Storm 01W/Ambo.



                            TROPICAL STORM
                            (TC-01W / AMBO)
                           11 - 16 February
                 ------------------------------------

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     At 2000 UTC on 9 February JTWC issued a STWO on an area of convection
  located near 5.0N/153.0E, or approximately 250 nm west-southwest of
  Pohnpei.  This area eventually developed into Tropical Storm 01W and was
  a twin to a disturbance in the Southern Hemisphere which became Tropical
  Cyclone Fritz.  Animated infrared satellite imagery indicated cycling
  deep convection over a weak LLCC situated within the monsoon trough.
  Upper-air analyses indicated that the suspect area was located in the
  southwestern quadrant of the subtropical ridge with good divergence and
  moderate wind shear conditions.  The potential for development for the
  next 24 hours was assessed as poor, and then upgraded to fair at 11/1300
  UTC.  At this time animated infrared satellite imagery indicated that
  the deep convection had persisted and consolidated over the weak LLCC.
  A TCFA was issued at 11/1500 UTC and soon followed by the first warning
  on Tropical Depression 01W at 1800 UTC.


  B. Storm History
  ----------------

     At the time of the first warning, Tropical Depression 01W was located
  approximately 150 nm south of Agana, Guam, and moving toward the north-
  west at 12 kts .  Deep convection continued to develop over the system
  and animated satellite imagery showed low-level cloud lines wrapping in
  from the southeast.  After further intensification (and a turn to the
  west-northwest) TC-01W was upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm, but the
  system was still being harassed by wind shear.  Multi-spectral satellite
  imagery revealed an exposed LLCC south of the deep convection which had
  weakened by 12/1200 UTC, and as a result TS-01W was downgraded back to
  tropical depression status.   By 13/0000 UTC the appearance of TD-01W
  looked worse for wear with only weak convection situated over a broad
  LLCC.

     At 0000 UTC on 13 February the partially-exposed centre of TD-01W
  was moving west at 15 kts approximately 180 nm north-northwest of Yap.
  Most of the deepest convection was in the northern quadrants at this
  time.  Things hadn't improved six hours later, but at 13/1200 UTC TD-01W
  was rewarded for its efforts and persistence.  Deep convection began to
  increase once again and formed an impressive albeit sheared CDO as seen
  in 13/1800 UTC satellite images.  TD-01W was re-upgraded to a tropical
  storm with the MSW increased to 40 kts.  The system began to slow and
  meander toward the north-northwest under the steering influence of the
  low to mid-level ridge located to the northeast.  (Note: Tropical Storm
  01W was named Ambo by PAGASA, which issued only four warnings on this
  system from the 13th to the 14th.)

     At 0000 UTC on 14 February Tropical Storm 01W (Ambo) had slowed to
  5 kts, still trekking toward the north-northwest approximately 380 nm
  north-northwest of Yap.  The system managed to strengthen a little more
  and the MSW reached a peak intensity of 45 kts at 14/0600 UTC.  This
  was maintained for another six hours before TS-01W was abruptly down-
  graded to a tropical depression at 14/1800 UTC.  At this time upper-
  level shearing had exposed the LLCC again with the nearest deep
  convection located over 65 nm away.  Pressures had been building across
  the northern Philippines and this synoptic feature prevented the weak
  tropical cyclone from making any further progress toward the north.
  Instead, a very slow east-northeastward crawl had begun and this had
  turned east-southeastward by 15/0000 UTC.

     Satellite images at 0000 UTC 15 February continued to show deep
  convection well-removed from the LLCC which, at this time, was located
  some 325 nm north-northwest of Yap.  The intensity of TD-01W was hovering
  at 30 kts.    Water vapour imagery at 0600 UTC showed a ball of deep
  convection developing over the LLCC, but this soon waned.  Movement was
  slow throughout the day and toward the east or east-southeast, then
  south-southwestward at 15/1800 UTC as the ridge began to pull the system 
  in toward the central Philippines. 

     By 16/0000 UTC TD-01W had finished its clockwise loop cycle and was
  accelerating south-southwestward at around 13 kts with the limited areas
  of deep convection mainly to the northwest of the exposed centre.  JTWC
  issued the final advisory at 06/0600 UTC on the understanding that the
  system would continue to track through a poor sustenance environment,
  and by 1800 UTC satellite images showed hardly any trace of the tropical
  cyclone.

  (Editor's Note:  JTWC was the only warning agency to upgrade TD-01W/Ambo
  to tropical storm status.)


  C. Ambo's Afterlife?
  --------------------

     JTWC continued to monitor the remnants of TS-01W through STWOs, and
  at 2330 UTC on 17 February considered the development potential to be
  fair based on the increase of deep convection near the remnant LLCC,
  which had drifted southwestward to a position approximately 395 nm east
  of Mindanao, Philippines.  This was downgraded to poor after the centre
  once again became fully-exposed to the east of the cycling deep
  convection.  According to JMA's bulletins issued on the 17th the weak
  LOW was at a virtual standstill and remained stationary until late on
  the 18th when it began to drift slowly west.  Further bursts of deep
  convection occurred as the system continued its way west at a quicker
  pace through the 19th, but at 20/0600 UTC JTWC ceased mentioning the
  remnants of TC-01W in their STWOs as the appearance and organization of
  the system deteriorated again.

     What little convection remained in association with the wreckage of
  TD-01W continued to drift west towards the Philippines, but generally
  it came and went for several days.  In fact, satellite images showed the
  disturbance re-organizing on the 23rd (although it was still being
  sheared) by which time it was moving northwestward and paralleling the
  east coast of the Philippines.  On the 24th the system became exposed
  again.  However, following another redevelopment phase early on the 25th,
  several bursts of deep convection appeared forming a cold CDO.  Embedded
  within the overcast was a "pinhole" eye feature  which appeared in
  satellite images for two hours.    Shortly afterwards, cloud top
  temperatures warmed and the disturbance was completely stripped of
  convection by upper-level shearing.  Accelerating towards the northeast
  the disturbance completely dissipated and had been absorbed into a
  frontal system by 0000 UTC on 27 February.   (In an e-mail, Roger Edson
  noted that he'd carefully looked at satellite imagery of the pinhole eye
  feature referenced above, but could not discern any rotation.  Without
  rotation of the cloud system, of course, the feature would not have been
  a true eye.)

     This disturbance may be at least partially related to the remnants
  of TC-01W/Ambo, and satellite animations covering the period after
  Ambo's dissipation certainly suggest that it was the rejuvenation of
  Ambo.  (Huang Chunliang pointed out that only CWB was following the
  system as a LOW during the time that the "eye" was seen and that CPHC was
  the only agency to classify the disturbance as a weak depression and to
  mention the fact that it had intensified during the previous 12 hours.
  (JMA at the time was following another LOW centre further to the south.)


  D. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     There were no reports of damages or loss of life in association with
  Tropical Storm 01W/Ambo.

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for February:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for February:  None


           Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for February
           -----------------------------------------------------

     As the month of February opened, Severe Tropical Storm Elita was
  gathering strength over the Mozambique Channel prior to its third 
  crossing of the island of Madagascar while intense Tropical Cyclone Frank
  was slowly chugging southward over the central South Indian Ocean.   The
  complete reports on these two storms can be found in the January tropical
  cyclone summary.   After Elita and Frank had run their courses, the
  remainder of the month of February lay unusually quiet across the South-
  west Indian Ocean with no tropical disturbances entering warning status
  from either MFR or JTWC.

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

  Activity for February:  1 tropical LOW
                          1 severe tropical cyclone (hurricane)


                Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean
                      Tropical Activity for February
                ------------------------------------------

     Two tropical weather systems traversed the waters of the Timor Sea
  off Western Australia during February.  An overland system began to show
  signs of intensification near the Kimberley coast around 8 February.
  The LOW moved westward and was over the Timor Sea by the next day.
  Although forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone for several days,
  the LOW remained fairly weak and eventually made landfall along the
  Pilbara coastline east of Port Hedland around 0000 UTC on the 12th.

     Late in the month another tropical LOW began strengthening off the
  Kimberley coast.  This one was destined to develop into Severe Tropical
  Cyclone Monty, which reached intense tropical cyclone status with peak
  winds estimated at 95 kts on the 29th (110 kts 1-min avg MSW per JTWC).
  The storm turned southward toward the coast and made landfall on 1 March
  near Mardie as a severe Category 3 cyclone on the Australian Cyclone
  Severity Scale with peak gusts estimated near 110 kts at landfall.  The
  report below on Monty was written by Simon Clarke--a special thanks to
  Simon for his assistance.



                    SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MONTY
                              (TC-14S)
                        26 February - 2 March
          -------------------------------------------------


  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     Monty was the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2003/2004 season to be 
  named by the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre.   It was first 
  detected on 26 February 2004 over land in the western Kimberley region 
  approximately 140 kilometres east of Broome as a westward-moving
  tropical disturbance.       
                                             
     Moving at 6 knots, the developing circulation moved seawards to the 
  south of Broome later in the day.  In the ensuing 24-hour period, deep
  convection associated with the LLCC increased under conditions of low
  to moderate upper-level wind shear and enhanced upper-level outflow in
  all quadrants.  The developing storm was upgraded to tropical cyclone
  status at 1800 UTC on 27 February near 19.2S/119.7 E, or about 90
  nautical miles northeast of Port Hedland, and named Monty. 


  B. Storm History
  ----------------

     Following naming, Monty travelled in a general westerly direction 
  approximately 50-75 nautical miles offshore along the Western 
  Australian coastline for the following 48 hours, initially moving 
  toward the west-northwest, and then west-southwest, along the 
  periphery of a mid-level steering ridge located to the south.
 
     During this period and under favourable poleward and equatorial 
  outflow, Monty steadily intensified, and by 29/1000 UTC had reached 
  Category 4 status on the Australian scale with a central pressure of 
  935 hPa and maximum winds of 95 knots (10-min avg) near the centre.
  JTWC's corresponding 1-min avg MSW estimate was 110 knots--in very 
  good agreement with Perth.  The severe cyclone was located near 19.8S/ 
  115.6E at the time, or 90 nautical miles northwest of Karratha and 
  115 nautical miles north-northeast of Onslow.  Monty remained close 
  to this intensity for a further 12 hours as the cyclone moved to
  near 20.2S/115.2E at 2200 UTC on 29 February.  At this time, an 
  approaching short-wave trough weakened the mid-level steering ridge. 
  Monty commenced its poleward turn towards the Australian coastline 
  around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge now 
  located to the southeast of the system.  Settling into a southerly, 
  and ultimately a southeasterly trajectory, Monty some lost strength, 
  but remained an intense Category 3 cyclone passing to the near north 
  of Barrow Island before crossing the coastline near Mardie during 
  the late evening hours of 1 March 2004 (local time).  At the time of 
  landfall, Monty had estimated 10-min avg winds of 80 knots and a 
  central pressure of 955 hPa.

     After crossing the coast, the cyclonic circulation decayed 
  considerably as Monty travelled inland to the southeast. 
  Approximately 24 hours after landfall, and after travelling some 300 
  kilometres inland, Monty was downgraded from tropical cyclone status 
  near 24.2S/118.0E.  The remnant depression continued to track toward 
  the southeast prior to dissipation over land in the central part of 
  Western Australia.


  C. Warnings
  -----------

     Monty remained within the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre's
  AOR for its entire life.  During this period, the Centre issued Tropical
  Cyclone advices on 68 occasions, beginning at 0100 UTC on 27 February 
  and with the final one issued at 1900 UTC on 2 March.


  D. Meteorological Observations
  ------------------------------

     The Perth Bureau of Meteorology has issued a report on Monty that
  can be found at:

     http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone/monty/index.shtml>

  This report provides an excellent snapshot of interesting observations
  relating to the cyclone, including wind gusts, lowest reported pressure
  readings, a pictorial representation of Monty's track, radar images,
  rainfall accumulations and pictures of flooding produced by the cyclone.

     Some of the more notable observations include:

  (1) Highest Wind Gusts
  ----------------------

      113 kts    North Rankin Platform     0600 UTC 29 Feb
       95 kts    Varanus Island            0717 UTC 01 Mar
       91 kts    Barrow Island             0940 UTC 01 Mar
       83 kts    Mardie Station            1110 UTC 01 Mar


  (2) Lowest Pressures
  --------------------

      960.6 hPa    Varanus Island          0600 UTC 01 Mar
      963.7 hPa    Barrow Island           0730 UTC 01 Mar
      964.1 hPa    Mardie Station          1620 UTC 01 Mar


  (3) Accumulated Rainfall
  ------------------------

      393 mm       Mardie Station (under reported--rain gauge overflowed)
      382 mm       Yalleen
      323 mm       Roebourne


  E. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     There were no casualties reported as a direct consequence of Monty. 
  In fact, little serious damage was recorded.

     Prior to landfall, the cyclone forced 'resources giant' Rio Tinto
  to shut one-third of its mines and one of its ports in the region.  The 
  company's Dampier port, which normally operates 24 hours a day and 
  moves an estimated 203,000 tons of iron ore daily, was closed during 
  the event.

     For large parts of Western Australia's pastoral country, Monty 
  produced the best rains in four years, if not a decade, particularly 
  in the central and western parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne.  The 
  Fortescue River rose to its highest level since 1975.  There were 
  media reports of people being caught by rising waters.  At Yaraloola 
  station, south of Karratha, two residents and their dogs were plucked 
  off their roof by a helicopter with flood waters reaching halfway up 
  the walls.

    The flooding from Monty's rains cut major highways, including North 
  West Coastal Highway, for two weeks.  Emergency services had to fly 
  fresh water and supplies into inland towns such as Pannawonica, where 
  all telephone landlines were down after the storm.

     Further information, including satellite imagery, track details and 
  photographs of the event can be found at the following web-links:
  
     http://www.redtailcanyon.com/items/34700.aspx>

     http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?
             img_id=16474>

     http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_
             v2.php3?img_id=11979>

     http://www.eorc.nasda.go.jp/TRMM/typhoon/html/a/2004s/14S.MONTY_
             2004s_e.htm>

  (Report written by Simon Clarke)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

  Activity for February:  1 tropical cyclone


                     Northeast Australia/Coral Sea
                     Tropical Activity for February
                     ------------------------------

     One named tropical cyclone developed between longitudes 135E and
  160E during the month of February.   Tropical Cyclone Fritz developed
  east of the Cape York Peninsula on the afternoon of 10 February and
  moved inland near Bathhurst Bay during the morning of the 11th with
  peak gusts estimated at 55 kts.  The cyclone weakened over land but
  later re-intensified into a cyclone over the Gulf of Carpentaria on
  the morning of 12 February, making a second landfall during the night
  of 12-13 February along the southern Gulf coastline.  As the month of
  February closed, another tropical LOW was slowly gaining strength in
  the Gulf of Carpentaria.  On 1 March this system developed into Tropical
  Cyclone Evan shortly before making landfall in the Northern Territory.
  Evan will be covered in next month's summary.  A special thanks to Simon
  Clarke for writing the following report on Tropical Cyclone Fritz.



                       TROPICAL CYCLONE FRITZ
                              (TC-12P)
                          8 - 12 February
             ------------------------------------------

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     The first week of February, 2004, saw an active monsoon trough become 
  established through the northern Coral and Solomon Seas.  Initially, a
  slow-moving tropical LOW developed in the central Solomon Sea at 
  approximately 9.0S/154.0E on 8 February 2004.  This location is about 
  350 nautical miles west of Honiara.  Gale warnings were issued for 
  this LOW as it deepened to 1003 hPa.  However, strong upper-level 
  northeasterly winds weakened this initial development within 24 hours 
  as a new LOW developed to its southwest in the northern Coral Sea. 
  This new LOW became Queensland's first named storm of the 2003/2004 
  season.

     The new tropical LOW developed rapidly, and at 10/0600 UTC a gale
  warning was issued for the northern Coral Sea adjacent to the LOW which
  at the time was located near 13.7S/147.3E, or about 165 nautical miles
  northeast of Cooktown.  At 10/0900 UTC the tropical LOW was upgraded to
  tropical cyclone status and named Fritz.


  B. Storm History
  ----------------

     At the time of naming, Tropical Cyclone Fritz was centred near
  14.0S/146.6E (or about 125 nautical miles east of Cape Melville and
  120 nautical miles northeast of Cooktown) with a central pressure of
  998 hPa, moving to the west at 11 knots.

     Fritz maintained a fast-paced track (between 11 and 16 knots), 
  generally toward the west, and crossed the far northern Queensland 
  coastline at 10/1540 UTC, just to the south of Cape Melville (14.5S/ 
  144.7E).  At the time of landfall, Fritz sported a 995 hPa central 
  pressure with peak 10-min avg winds estimated at 40 knots.        

     It was clear that Fritz would cross the Cape York Peninsula rapidly 
  with the opportunity for redevelopment in the southwestern Gulf of 
  Carpentaria.  The Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane, had anticipated 
  this event and was already issuing cyclone advisories for the south- 
  western Gulf communities.  As predicted, Fritz quickly lost tropical 
  cyclone characteristics as it crossed the Cape York Peninsula, but 
  quickly regained them as it entered the Gulf of Carpentaria just 
  after 1400 UTC on 11 February.  A microwave TRMM image at 1419 UTC 
  depicted a clear centre near 16.4S/141.1E, just off the coastline.

     By 11/1545 UTC Fritz had been renamed and had commenced
  re-intensification under favourable conditions of warm sea surface 
  temperatures, minimal wind shear and good upper-level outflow.  Fritz 
  moved generally toward the west-southwest at 11 knots.  As Fritz 
  approached Mornington Island, it nudged onto a westerly path and 
  deepened to 985 hPa (peak intensity) with winds gusting to 75 knots, 
  implying peak 10-min avg winds of around 50 knots.  At the time radar 
  imagery clearly showed evidence of an eye, which passed over the 
  island between 12/0200 UTC and 12/0600 UTC.  Fritz slowed as it 
  approached the Australian mainland near 16.8S/138.8E at 12/1200 UTC   
  and reverted to a west-southwesterly path. 

     Fritz rapidly degenerated after crossing the coast.   Following 
  degeneration, ex-Tropical Cyclone Fritz maintained a clear satellite
  signature as it travelled across inland Northern Territory and Western
  Australia before interacting with a cold front south of Perth, where
  a deep LOW resulted (eventually reaching the southern tip of New Zealand
  as a 963 hPa LOW some days later).


  C. Damage/Casualties/Observations
  ---------------------------------

     Fritz crossed the coastline in relatively remote parts of Australia. 
  Jeff Callaghan from the Bureau of Meteorology Brisbane provides the 
  following (slightly edited) insight:

     "Fallen trees caused water and power outages at the remote 
  communities of Wujal Wujal, Bloomfield and Ayton north of Cairns. 
  Landslides closed the Gillies Highway near Cairns, and a landslide 
  caused major damage to properties at Yorkeys Knob (northern beach 
  suburb of Cairns).  Cape Flattery AWS (14.96S/145.3E) registered 
  10-minute mean winds SE/31 knots around 1122 UTC, 10 February 2004, 
  when Fritz was 80 km north of the AWS. 

     "Rainfalls in the 24 hours to 9 AM 11 February (2300 UTC 10 February 
  2004) include:

     204 mm   Weipa (Cape York Peninsula)
     173 mm   Saddle Mountain (near Cairns)
     163 mm   Cairns Airport Alert

     "Heavy rains continued in the Cairns Townsville Mackay Region with
  24-hour totals to 9 AM 12 February 2004:

     309 mm   Upper Murray
     292 mm   Paluma
     193 mm   South Johnstone 
     184 mm   Innisfail 

     "There was flash flooding in the Innisfail/South Johnstone region
  with falls of 74 mm in one hour.

     "At Mornington Island trees were uprooted but there was no structural 
  damage.  The island has withstood direct hits from severe Tropical 
  Cyclones Warren and Abigail over the last decade and buildings are 
  constructed to withstand severe tropical cyclones.  The lowest 
  barometer reading at Mornington Island was 993.3 hPa at 0330 UTC, 12 
  February, when the winds around this time were ESE/21 knots, gusting
  to 39 knots.  Buildings and trees heavily surround the anemometer on
  the island, and it is customary for forecasters at the Townsville
  Meteorological Office to relate the 10-minute mean wind to the maximum
  gust.  Sweers Island (17.2S/139.6E) estimated 10-minute mean winds of
  45 knots in a special report at 2330 UTC, 11 February 2004, when a
  rainband south of the centre passed over the Island."

     There were no casualties as a consequence of Tropical Cyclone Fritz.


  D. Comparisons (BoM & JTWC)
  ---------------------------

     Compared to the Bureau of Meterology (BoM), the Joint Typhoon
  Warning Centre (JTWC) was slow to pick up Fritz.  This could perhaps
  be attributed to the time lapsing between warnings and the rapid
  development of Fritz following initial identification.  Similar
  occurrences have also been observed in previous seasons in the Coral
  Sea:  Tropical Cyclones Rona, Tessi, Vaughan, Steve and Abigail (and
  later Evan in the Gulf of Carpentaria), were small, minor to moderately
  intense tropical cyclones that were significantly under-estimated in
  their intensity.

  (Report written by Simon Clarke with significant contributions by
  Jeff Callaghan)

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for February:  1 intense tropical cyclone


               South Pacific Tropical Activity for February
               --------------------------------------------

     Following the very intense and devastating Tropical Cyclone Heta in
  early January, the South Pacific east of 160E lay rather quiet for
  almost two months with no tropical cyclones or depressions tracked.
  During the third week of February a system began developing to the
  northwest of Fiji which would become intense Tropical Cyclone Ivy.
  After moving westward, Ivy turned to the south on a course which would
  take it over some of the islands of the Republic of Vanuatu, including
  the capital city of Port Vila, near the time of its peak intensity of
  90 kts (110 kts 1-min avg MSW per JTWC).  Ivy then accelerated to the
  southeast and narrowly missed New Zealand's North Island shortly after
  it had made the transition into a still-potent extratropical cyclone.
  The following report on Ivy was written by Simon Clarke--a special
  thanks to Simon for his assistance.



                        TROPICAL CYCLONE IVY
                         (TD-05F / TC-13P)
                        21 - 29 February 2004
              -----------------------------------------

   A. Storm Origins
   ----------------

     Ivy was the second tropical cyclone to form in RSMC Nadi's area of 
  responsibility during the 2003/2004 South Pacific tropical cyclone 
  season.  A tropical disturbance was first identified about midway 
  between Nadi, Fiji, and Port Vila, Vanuatu, along an active monsoon 
  trough on 21 February 2004.  The next day, the disturbance formed 
  into a depression, with the LLCC clearly exposed and displaced just 
  southeast of the deepest convection. 

     Around this time, the depression began to move slowly west-
  northwestward while still significantly influenced by shear and diurnal
  variations.  On the 23rd convection about the LLCC gradually increased
  with improved organization.  Outflow was good to the north and 
  developing in all other quadrants.  By 23/0000 UTC the LLCC had 
  slipped under the cooling deep convection.  Situated under an upper-
  level outflow region with minimal shear, TD-05F was then named 
  Tropical Cyclone Ivy at 23/0300 UTC as primary convective bands 
  increasingly wrapped tightly around the central features.  At the time 
  of naming, Ivy was located approximately 275 nautical miles northeast 
  of Port Vila, Vanuatu, and moving slowly northwestward.


  B. Storm History
  ----------------

     Initially the system had intensified sporadically, but after being 
  named intensification was steady with Ivy attaining storm intensity
  15 hours later while located some 250 nautical miles north-northeast of
  Port Vila and still maintaining a northwesterly motion.  By 24/0000 UTC,
  the cyclone had shifted onto a southwesterly track, retreating around a
  mid-level ridge on a path towards the central part of Vanuatu.  Hurricane
  intensity was reached at approximately 24/1200 UTC with the storm located
  210 nautical miles due north of Port Vila as it continued trekking toward
  the southwest.

     Occasional warm air entrainment, together with the disruption from 
  frictional interference from the rugged terrain of the Vanuatu island 
  group, inhibited further intensification.  Ivy peaked at approximately 
  26/0000 UTC at 90 knots maximum (10-minute average) winds.  At its 
  peak Ivy possessed an estimated central pressure of 935 hPa and was 
  located about 30 nautical miles northwest of Port Vila under a
  strengthening northwesterly steering field.  The cyclone began to gather
  speed and passed very close to Port Vila around 26/0600 UTC.   Ivy
  accelerated towards the south-southeast, keeping just west of the
  southern islands of Vanuatu whilst weakening under increasingly
  aggressive vertical wind shear.  (Note: JTWC's peak estimated 1-min avg
  MSW of 110 knots agrees very well with Nadi's peak 10-min avg MSW of
  90 knots.)

     The TCWC at Wellington assumed primary responsibility for further 
  warnings on Ivy after 27/1800 UTC.  Ivy had become extratropical by 
  28/1200 UTC but remained rather potent as it passed close to the 
  east of East Cape, New Zealand, on 29 February as a vigorous extra-
  tropical cyclone.  Following its brush with New Zealand, ex-Tropical
  Cyclone Ivy continued racing southeastward and had reached the 50th 
  parallel by 0000 UTC on 1 March.


  C. Warnings
  -----------

     The following warning summary was provided by Alipate Waqaicelua, 
  Chief Forecaster at the Nadi TCWC (slightly edited):
  

     "Twenty-five International Marine Warnings were issued on Tropical 
  Cyclone Ivy by RSMC Nadi. These warnings consisted of three Gale 
  Warnings, one Storm Warning and 21 Hurricane Warnings, all issued at 
  six-hourly intervals. In addition, twenty-two Tropical Disturbance 
  Advisories were issued.  Specifically for Vanuatu, twenty Special 
  Advisories were released by RSMC Nadi."


     The Wellington office also issued further warnings until Ivy had lost 
  its tropical cyclone characteristics soon after moving into their area
  of responsibility.  Regular marine warnings were issued for the resulting
  extratropical storm until it had moved south of latitude 50S.
 

  D. Meteorological Observations 
  ------------------------------

     A 70-knot surface wind was reported on Aneityum Island (Vanuatu) at 
  26/1800 UTC.  This was the highest surface wind known to have been 
  reported at the time of writing this article.   The lowest barometric
  pressure known to have been recorded was 961.8 hPa at Bauerfield (Vila)
  at 26/0600 UTC when the cyclone's eye passed directly over the airfield
  (or close by).    However, satellite imagery indicated (through Dvorak
  analysis) that the minimum pressure could have been as low as 940 hPa
  when the eye was over the open sea.

     The highest recorded 24-hour rainfall reported from stations in the 
  path of Ivy was 254.4 mm at Bauerfield on 26 February.
 

  E. Damage and Casualties 
  ------------------------

    Ivy was an intense tropical cyclone with maximum 10-minute average 
  winds of about 90 knots.  Much of Vanuatu received moderate to severe 
  damage directly from the cyclone.  The hardest hit areas were the 
  central islands where moderate to severe damage was experienced. 
  There was one fatality.  Areas worst affected were the islands of 
  Paama, Epi, Ambrym, the eastern coast of Malekula and the northern 
  tips of Ambae (Aoba) and Maewo.  More than 2,000 people had to be 
  evacuated from their homes in the Port Vila area as the eye of Ivy 
  passed directly over or close to the capital.  Many of the 24,000 
  residents of Vanuatu's central islands lost their homes.  Most, if 
  not all, of the mango and banana industries were severely damaged,
  and around 75% of the coconut and cocoa crops were affected.  A New 
  Zealand Air Force Orion reported moderate to severe damage to villages
  in a 40-kilometre circle centred on the southwest of Ambrym Island.
  Houses lost roofs, and trees and vegetation were flattened.

     Imagery of Tropical Cyclone Ivy can be found at:

     http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_
             v2.php3?img_id=11965>

     More specific damage reporting can be found at Relief Web as follows:

     http://wwww.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/0/f89f4aba5f93dee1c1256e54004
             f7b5b>

     No reports of damage have been received, at the time of writing this 
  report, from New Caledonia or the outlying islands in the southeastern 
  Solomon Islands.

  (Report written by Simon Clarke with significant contributions by
  Alipate Waqaicelua)

  *************************************************************************

                              EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.

  *************************************************************************

  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  from the archive sites listed below.  (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
  distribution list for the track files.    If anyone wishes to receive
  these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and
  Chris Landsea):

    http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
    http://mpittweather.com>
    ftp:// ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>


     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:

    http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html>


                   TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

     JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical 
  Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2002 (2001-2002 season for the Southern 
  Hemisphere).  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.  The report
  for the 2002-2003 Southern Hemisphere season has also recently been
  added.

     The URL is:  http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2003 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2003 Atlantic
  and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
  track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.

     The URL is:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>


     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.


  PREPARED BY

  Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  [email protected]
  Phone:  334-222-5327

  Kevin Boyle  (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
                China Sea)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Huang Chunliang  (Assistance with Western Northwest Pacific, South
                    China Sea)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Simon Clarke  (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  [email protected]********
  *************************************************************************

Document: summ0402.htm
Updated: 26th October 2006

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