[Index]
Tropical Cyclone LINDA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone LINDA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20041128 05:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 280451ZJAN2004//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 6.0S6 88.8E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 280430Z7 INDICATES THAT
A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4S9 88.8E4. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY NEAR 5.4S9 88.8E4,
HAS BEEN RELOCATED EAST NEAR 6.0S6 89.5E2, APPROXIMATELY 990NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS AT 280015Z6
INDICATES THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND IS NOW CO-LOCATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS AND BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED, YET REMAINS CYCLIC. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. DUE TO
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290500Z6.
=========================================================================
WARNING 001 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20040129 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- NEAR 9.8S7 93.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S7 93.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 11.5S7 94.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 12.8S1 94.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 14.1S6 94.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 15.5S1 94.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 10.2S3 093.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
230 NM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). TC 11S IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD
AFTER TAU 12 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11S
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6
AND 301500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20040130 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- NEAR 10.9S0 94.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 94.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 12.3S6 94.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 13.7S1 94.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 15.0S6 93.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 16.2S9 93.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 11.3S5 94.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
165 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
TC 11S IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11S IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z3 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 AND 310300Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20040130 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z6 --- NEAR 12.1S4 95.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 95.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 13.4S8 96.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 14.8S3 95.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 15.9S5 95.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 17.0S8 94.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.4S7 95.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
70 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 301130Z8 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30, 35 AND 45
KNOTS. RECENT MULTSPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN RECURVE TO A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TC 11S IS APPROACHING A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A WESTWARD
STEERING INFLUENCE TOWARDS THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD.
TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO WEAK
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET
EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z6 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 310300Z7 AND 311500Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20040131 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z4 --- NEAR 15.0S6 96.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 96.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 16.6S3 96.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 17.5S3 95.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 18.4S3 95.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 18.8S7 94.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 96.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 302330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. TC 11S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD CAUSING TC 11S TO TRANSITION
TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE UKMET MODEL DOES NOT FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD
KEEPING TC 11S ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 310000Z4 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 AND 010300Z4. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20040131 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z7 --- NEAR 16.4S1 96.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 96.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 17.7S5 95.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 18.2S1 94.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 19.0S0 93.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 20.0S2 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311130Z9
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS
INCREASING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD FOR 12 HOURS AND THEN TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TC 11S
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN
MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, JGSM, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGRR IS THE OUTLIER, KEEPING THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST STRONGER, RESULTING IN A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH
LESS EMPHASIS ON EGRR.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20040201 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- NEAR 17.7S5 95.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 95.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 18.6S5 95.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 19.7S7 94.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 20.7S9 93.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 21.8S1 92.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 95.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
312330Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. 010001Z2
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHWARD. MORE RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF COLD DRY AIR WEST
OF THE FORECAST TRACK THAT WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 11S IS TRACKING
POLEWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD AND TO STEER THE SYSTEM INTO AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF CONFLUENT SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 AND 020300Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA)
AND 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS31/WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20040201 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- NEAR 18.8S7 95.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 95.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 19.7S7 94.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 20.8S0 93.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 21.9S2 92.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 94.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
011130Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS,
GFDN, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020300Z5 AND 021500Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S
(FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20040201 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 19.3S3 94.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 94.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 20.0S2 94.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 94.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011503Z0 SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OF TC 11S IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. TC 11S HAS TRACKED INTO AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF CONFLUENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 21 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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Document: linda.html
Updated: 7th March, 2004 |
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