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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks October 2002
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

          
              GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - OCTOBER 2002


          !!!! IMPORTANT -- PLEASE SEE NOTE AT END OF FILE !!!!

*************************************************************************

ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The track coordinates, central pressure and 1-minute average
  maximum sustained wind values were obtained from the operational
  forecast/advisories issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National
  Hurricane Center located in Miami, Florida.   A 1-minute averaging
  period is the standard used by all U. S. civilian and military
  warning services for tropical cyclone warnings.


                            Systems Tracked
                            ---------------

   Tropical Depression (14)                            14 - 18 Oct

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: 14      Basin: ATL


   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

02 OCT 14 1200  17.3 N   82.9 W  1009   25
02 OCT 14 1800  17.2 N   83.1 W  1008   30
02 OCT 15 0000  17.1 N   83.2 W  1004   30
02 OCT 15 0600  17.6 N   83.1 W  1004   30
02 OCT 15 1200  17.8 N   82.8 W  1004   30
02 OCT 15 1800  18.6 N   82.4 W  1002   30
02 OCT 16 0000  19.7 N   82.2 W  1003   30
02 OCT 16 0600  20.5 N   81.6 W  1003   30
02 OCT 16 1200  21.8 N   80.7 W  1005   30
02 OCT 16 1800  22.2 N   80.5 W  1006   25
02 OCT 17 0000  24.0 N   79.0 W  1006   25        Extratropical
02 OCT 17 0600  24.0 N   79.0 W  1008   25
02 OCT 17 1200  24.0 N   77.0 W  1008   25
02 OCT 17 1800  26.0 N   77.0 W  1009   25
02 OCT 18 0000  27.0 N   75.0 W  1009   20
02 OCT 18 0600  28.0 N   74.0 W  1010   20
02 OCT 18 1200  28.0 N   72.0 W  1012   20

Note: It should be noted that the Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) began
issuing advisories on TD-14 in the event the system deepened into a 
strong extratropical cyclone and rapidly accelerated toward the Maritime
Provinces.   The CHC was still classifying the system as a tropical
depression as late as 17/0600 UTC.

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The track coordinates, central pressure and 1-minute average
  maximum sustained wind values were obtained from the operational
  forecast/advisories issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National
  Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, for locations east of longitude
  140W, and from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu,
  Hawaii, for locations west of longitude 140W.  A 1-minute averaging
  period is the standard used by all U. S. civilian and military
  warning services for tropical cyclone warnings.


                            Systems Tracked
                            ---------------

   Hurricane KENNA (14E)                               22 - 26 Oct
   Tropical Storm LOWELL (15E)                         22 - 31 Oct
   Hurricane/Typhoon HUKO (03C / 0224)                 24 Oct - 07 Nov

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: KENNA                 Cyclone Number: 14E     Basin: NEP


   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

02 OCT 22 0000  11.5 N   99.5 W  1006   30
02 OCT 22 0600  11.5 N  100.4 W  1004   35
02 OCT 22 1200  11.7 N  101.4 W  1003   35
02 OCT 22 1800  12.1 N  102.5 W  1003   35
02 OCT 23 0000  12.5 N  103.6 W  1002   40
02 OCT 23 0600  13.0 N  104.5 W   997   50
02 OCT 23 1200  13.6 N  105.6 W   990   65
02 OCT 23 1800  14.3 N  106.9 W   980   75
02 OCT 24 0000  14.9 N  108.0 W   973   85
02 OCT 24 0600  15.5 N  108.4 W   962  100
02 OCT 24 1200  16.4 N  108.8 W   955  110
02 OCT 24 1800  17.3 N  108.8 W   921  130
02 OCT 25 0000  18.3 N  108.4 W   915  140
02 OCT 25 0600  19.3 N  107.5 W   915  145
02 OCT 25 1200  20.4 N  106.5 W   915  140
02 OCT 25 1800  22.0 N  105.2 W   955  100        Inland in Mexico
02 OCT 26 0000  23.7 N  103.5 W  1000   35
02 OCT 26 0300  24.5 N  102.7 W  1000   30

Note: Hurricane Kenna made landfall near San Blas, Mexico, around
1700 UTC on 25 October with the MSW estimated at 120 kts, making
it the strongest hurricane to strike the west coast of Mexico
since Hurricane Madeline in 1976.  The 915-mb central pressure ties
with the same value measured in Hurricane Ava in 1973 for the lowest
SLP actually measured in an Eastern Pacific hurricane.  The drop-
sonde in question measured 918 mb, but the surface wind was 27 kts,
suggesting that the dropsonde was not in the center of the eye.  The
actual minimum central pressure was adjusted to 915 mb based on that
assumption.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: LOWELL                Cyclone Number: 15E     Basin: NEP


   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

02 OCT 22 1800  11.0 N  130.5 W  1008   30
02 OCT 23 0000  11.8 N  130.5 W  1006   30
02 OCT 23 0600  11.8 N  130.5 W  1004   35
02 OCT 23 1200  12.7 N  131.0 W  1003   40
02 OCT 23 1800  12.3 N  131.5 W  1003   40
02 OCT 24 0000  12.4 N  132.4 W  1003   40
02 OCT 24 0600  12.6 N  133.2 W  1003   40
02 OCT 24 1200  12.3 N  134.5 W  1005   35
02 OCT 24 1800  12.3 N  135.8 W  1008   30
02 OCT 25 0000  12.5 N  136.8 W  1008   30
02 OCT 25 0600  12.5 N  137.8 W  1008   30
02 OCT 25 1200  12.5 N  138.8 W  1008   30
02 OCT 25 1800  12.5 N  139.9 W  1008   30
02 OCT 26 0000  12.7 N  140.5 W  1009   30        CPHC's Warnings
02 OCT 26 0600  12.8 N  141.2 W  1009   30
02 OCT 26 1200  13.0 N  142.0 W  1009   30
02 OCT 26 1800  12.5 N  143.0 W  1009   30
02 OCT 27 0000  12.3 N  143.7 W  1009   30
02 OCT 27 0600  12.3 N  144.5 W  1009   30
02 OCT 27 1200  12.1 N  144.0 W  1007   30
02 OCT 27 1800  12.8 N  144.1 W  1009   35
02 OCT 28 0000  13.1 N  144.5 W  1009   35
02 OCT 28 0600  13.2 N  144.7 W  1004   40
02 OCT 28 1200  13.3 N  144.9 W  1002   45
02 OCT 28 1800  13.2 N  145.2 W  1002   45
02 OCT 29 0000  12.7 N  145.8 W  1004   40
02 OCT 29 0600  12.6 N  146.3 W  1005   35
02 OCT 29 1200  12.5 N  146.9 W  1007   30
02 OCT 29 1800  12.0 N  147.6 W  1009   30
02 OCT 30 0000  12.1 N  148.3 W  1009   25
02 OCT 30 0600  12.1 N  148.7 W  1009   25
02 OCT 30 1200  12.0 N  149.1 W  1009   25
02 OCT 30 1800  11.5 N  149.1 W  1009   25
02 OCT 31 0000  11.2 N  149.3 W  1009   25

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: HUKO                  Cyclone Number: 03C     Basin: NEP/NWP
(Name assigned by Central Pacific Hurricane Center)    JMA Number: 0224

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

02 OCT 24 1800   9.7 N  154.5 W  1007   25
02 OCT 25 0000  10.0 N  154.4 W  1007   25
02 OCT 25 0600  10.2 N  154.3 W  1007   25
02 OCT 25 1200  10.4 N  154.4 W  1006   25
02 OCT 25 1800  10.4 N  154.3 W  1005   30
02 OCT 26 0000  10.8 N  154.9 W  1004   35
02 OCT 26 0600  11.4 N  155.1 W  1005   35
02 OCT 26 1200  11.6 N  156.0 W  1009   40
02 OCT 26 1800  11.5 N  156.3 W  1006   45
02 OCT 27 0000  11.5 N  157.0 W  1006   45 
02 OCT 27 0600  11.5 N  157.3 W   997   50
02 OCT 27 1200  12.0 N  158.2 W   994   55
02 OCT 27 1800  12.3 N  158.7 W   994   55 
02 OCT 28 0000  12.2 N  158.1 W   994   55 
02 OCT 28 0600  12.9 N  158.5 W   994   55
02 OCT 28 1200  12.4 N  158.9 W   993   60
02 OCT 28 1800  12.9 N  159.3 W   987   65
02 OCT 29 0000  12.8 N  160.0 W   987   65
02 OCT 29 0600  13.0 N  160.7 W   987   65 
02 OCT 29 1200  13.2 N  160.5 W   987   65
02 OCT 29 1800  13.6 N  160.2 W   987   65
02 OCT 30 0000  14.0 N  161.3 W   994   55
02 OCT 30 0600  14.0 N  162.6 W   996   55
02 OCT 30 1200  13.8 N  163.4 W   998   50
02 OCT 30 1800  13.7 N  164.3 W   998   50
02 OCT 31 0000  13.9 N  165.3 W   998   60
02 OCT 31 0600  13.8 N  166.2 W   987   65 
02 OCT 31 1200  13.7 N  166.9 W   987   65
02 OCT 31 1800  13.7 N  168.3 W   987   65
02 NOV 01 0000  13.4 N  169.2 W   990   65
02 NOV 01 0600  13.7 N  170.3 W   987   65
02 NOV 01 1200  14.1 N  171.4 W   981   75
02 NOV 01 1800  14.6 N  172.0 W   980   75
02 NOV 02 0000  14.7 N  172.6 W   981   75
02 NOV 02 0600  14.7 N  173.5 W   980   75
02 NOV 02 1200  14.7 N  174.3 W   980   75
02 NOV 02 1800  15.0 N  174.8 W   981   75
02 NOV 03 0000  15.4 N  176.1 W   981   75
02 NOV 03 0600  15.7 N  179.1 W   981   75        Final CPHC Warning
02 NOV 03 1200  15.9 N  179.8 E   975   75    65  JTWC Warnings
02 NOV 03 1800  16.0 N  177.8 E   970   75    65
02 NOV 04 0000  16.7 N  174.9 E   970   70    65
02 NOV 04 0600  17.5 N  172.3 E   970   70    65
02 NOV 04 1200  18.4 N  170.4 E   965   70    70  NMCC: 19.2 N, 169.5 E
02 NOV 04 1800  19.8 N  167.3 E   970   75    65  JMA: 18.7 N, 168.4 E
02 NOV 05 0000  20.7 N  165.1 E   975   70    60
02 NOV 05 0600  21.7 N  163.9 E   975   75    60
02 NOV 05 1200  23.1 N  163.1 E   980   70    55
02 NOV 05 1800  24.3 N  162.7 E   980   65    55
02 NOV 06 0000  25.3 N  162.8 E   980   65    55
02 NOV 06 0600  25.9 N  164.2 E   985   60    50
02 NOV 06 1200  26.8 N  166.2 E   990   55    45  NMCC: 27.6 N, 166.9 E
02 NOV 06 1800  27.1 N  168.9 E   990   55    45
02 NOV 07 0000  27.6 N  171.7 E   996   45    40  JMA: 28.0 N, 173.0 E
02 NOV 07 0600  28.5 N  174.2 E  1000   35    35  Extratropical
02 NOV 07 1200  30.0 N  179.0 E  1006         40  JMA Bulletin

Note: The original JTWC coordinates for 04/1800 UTC were 19.4N, 168.0E.
An amended warning was later issued, revising the synoptic hour position
to the coordinates given above.  This relocation was based upon synoptic
observations from Wake Island, and brought the 1800 UTC position fairly
close to NMCC's coordinates of 20.0N, 167.6E.  NMCC's estimated 10-min
avg MSW values are given below.

   Date   Time      Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts
          (GMT)        NMCC
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

02 NOV 03 1200          65
02 NOV 03 1800          70
02 NOV 04 0000          70
02 NOV 04 0600          70
02 NOV 04 1200          70
02 NOV 04 1800          65
02 NOV 05 0000          65
02 NOV 05 0600          65
02 NOV 05 1200          65
02 NOV 05 1800          60
02 NOV 06 0000          60
02 NOV 06 0600          50
02 NOV 06 1200          50
02 NOV 06 1800          45

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
  values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
  Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
  located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.  The central pressure and 10-minute
  average maximum sustained wind estimates for most systems were obtained
  from warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), which
  is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
  ological Centre for the basin.  In a few instances, information from
  warnings issued by other Asian warning centers may have been utilized.
  The center position coordinates from JMA and other centers were com-
  pared with those from JTWC and annotations made in the Remarks column
  when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings
  issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the Philippines'
  Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration
  (PAGASA).  Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, sends me
  each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the National
  Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather Bureau
  of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO).    A very
  special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so
  reliably provide.


                            Systems Tracked
                            ---------------

   Typhoon BAVI (26W / 0222)                           08 - 17 Oct
   Tropical Depression                                 12 Oct
   Tropical Depression (27W)                           15 - 19 Oct
   Tropical Depression (28W)                           17 - 19 Oct
   Tropical Storm MAYSAK (29W / 0223)                  26 - 30 Oct

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: BAVI                  Cyclone Number: 26W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None        JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0222

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

02 OCT 08 1200  10.0 N  156.0 E   998         25  JMA Bulletins
02 OCT 08 1800  11.6 N  154.7 E   996         30        "
02 OCT 09 0000  11.9 N  154.6 E   996         30        "
02 OCT 09 0600  12.3 N  152.9 E   994   25    30  JMA: 12.9 N, 154.1 E
02 OCT 09 1200  12.9 N  151.3 E   992   25    40  JMA: 13.2 N, 152.3 E
02 OCT 09 1800  13.3 N  150.2 E   990   30    40  JMA: 13.6 N, 151.3 E
02 OCT 10 0000  14.2 N  150.0 E   990   30    40  JMA: 13.9 N, 150.4 E
02 OCT 10 0600  15.2 N  150.1 E   990   35    40  JMA: 14.5 N, 150.2 E
02 OCT 10 1200  16.6 N  149.7 E   990   40    40  JMA: 16.0 N, 150.2 E
02 OCT 10 1800  18.3 N  149.1 E   985   45    50  JMA: 17.5 N, 150.6 E
02 OCT 11 0000  19.2 N  149.4 E   985   55    50
02 OCT 11 0600  19.9 N  148.9 E   985   60    50  JMA: 20.4 N, 148.8 E
02 OCT 11 1200  20.9 N  148.6 E   985   60    50  JMA: 21.7 N, 148.7 E
02 OCT 11 1800  22.2 N  148.2 E   985   60    50
02 OCT 12 0000  23.4 N  147.4 E   985   60    50  
02 OCT 12 0600  24.7 N  147.1 E   985   65    45  JMA: 23.3 N, 147.0 E
02 OCT 12 1200  26.0 N  146.8 E   985   70    45
02 OCT 12 1800  27.1 N  146.6 E   985   70    45
02 OCT 13 0000  28.2 N  146.7 E   985   65    45  JMA: 27.8 N, 147.1 E
02 OCT 13 0600  29.6 N  147.6 E   985   55    50  JMA: 28.9 N, 147.5 E
02 OCT 13 1200  30.8 N  148.9 E   992   55    45  JMA: 30.8 N, 148.0 E
02 OCT 13 1800  32.2 N  150.0 E   988   45    60  JMA: 34.0 N, 149.0 E
02 OCT 14 0000  34.7 N  152.3 E   984   35    55  JMA: 38.0 N, 153.0 E
02 OCT 14 0600  37.1 N  155.7 E   980   30    55  JMA: 39.0 N, 155.0 E
02 OCT 14 1200  42.0 N  158.0 E   980         55  JMA Bulletins
02 OCT 14 1800  44.0 N  162.0 E   976         60
02 OCT 15 0000  46.0 N  163.0 E   968         65
02 OCT 15 0600  47.0 N  167.0 E   972         65
02 OCT 15 1200  47.0 N  172.0 E   972         65
02 OCT 15 1800  47.0 N  175.0 E   972         65
02 OCT 16 0000  47.0 N  178.0 E   970         65
02 OCT 16 0600  46.0 N  179.0 W   972         65
02 OCT 16 1200  46.0 N  176.0 W   972         65
02 OCT 16 1800  46.0 N  173.0 W   977         50  MPC Bulletins
02 OCT 17 0600  46.0 N  171.0 W   976         45  17/0000Z data missing

Note: JMA considered Bavi to be extratropical at 13/1800 UTC.  The
information for the extratropical stage from 14/1200 through 16/1200
UTC was taken from JMA's High Seas Forecasts.  The data for the final
two entries was taken from MPC's High Seas Forecasts for the Eastern
Pacific.  The 10-min avg MSW estimates from NMCC are tabulated below.
Since the center position coordinates from JTWC and JMA were so
discordant for this cyclone, I have included NMCC's coordinates for
the tropical storm stage of Bavi below.

   Date   Time   ---NMCC Information---
          (GMT)  Lat      Lon      MSW  
                                  (kts)
---------------------------------------

02 OCT 09 1200  13.1 N  152.3 E     35
02 OCT 09 1800  13.4 N  150.8 E     40
02 OCT 10 0000  14.1 N  150.4 E     45
02 OCT 10 0600  14.7 N  150.4 E     45
02 OCT 10 1200  15.7 N  150.4 E     45
02 OCT 10 1800  17.5 N  150.2 E     50
02 OCT 11 0000  19.0 N  150.2 E     50
02 OCT 11 0600  20.1 N  149.4 E     50
02 OCT 11 1200  21.5 N  149.1 E     50
02 OCT 11 1800  22.7 N  148.2 E     50
02 OCT 12 0000  23.2 N  147.5 E     50
02 OCT 12 0600  23.5 N  147.1 E     50
02 OCT 12 1200  25.9 N  146.8 E     50
02 OCT 12 1800  27.4 N  146.7 E     50
02 OCT 13 0000  28.1 N  147.1 E     45
02 OCT 13 0600  28.9 N  147.5 E     45
02 OCT 13 1200  31.0 N  148.6 E     45
02 OCT 13 1800  33.2 N  150.2 E     45

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: None    Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None        JMA Tropical Storm Number: None

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

02 OCT 12 0600  15.3 N  113.3 E  1004         30  JMA Bulletins
02 OCT 12 1200  15.8 N  113.0 E  1004         30         "
02 OCT 12 1800  15.9 N  113.0 E  1006         30         "

Note: System was abruptly downgraded to a weak 1008-mb low-pressure
area at 13/0600 UTC, and was also relocated to near 15N, 118E, where
it remained quasi-stationary for a couple of days.   To the best of
my knowledge, no other warning agency considered this system a tropical
depression.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: 27W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None        JMA Tropical Storm Number: None

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

02 OCT 15 1800  19.0 N  162.0 E  1008         25  JMA Bulletins
02 OCT 16 0000  18.0 N  162.0 E  1008         25
02 OCT 16 0600  18.0 N  160.0 E  1008         25
02 OCT 16 1200  19.0 N  159.0 E  1008         25  16/1800Z data missing
02 OCT 17 0000  17.5 N  157.2 E  1008   25    25
02 OCT 17 0600  17.4 N  156.5 E  1008   25    25
02 OCT 17 1200  17.2 N  155.7 E  1008   25    25
02 OCT 17 1800  17.0 N  155.0 E  1006   25    25  JMA: 18.0 N, 156.0 E
02 OCT 18 0000  16.9 N  154.3 E  1006   30    25
02 OCT 18 0600  16.5 N  153.4 E  1004   30    25
02 OCT 18 1200  16.4 N  152.4 E  1008   30    20
02 OCT 18 1800  16.1 N  152.0 E  1006   30    20
02 OCT 19 0000  16.0 N  151.0 E  1008   25    20  JMA: 16.0 N, 152.0 E
02 OCT 19 0600  16.2 N  149.6 E         25

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: 28W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None        JMA Tropical Storm Number: None

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

02 OCT 17 1800  13.0 N  177.5 E  1004         30  JMA Bulletin
02 OCT 18 0000  13.6 N  175.8 E  1004   25    30  JMA: 14.1 N, 176.3 E
02 OCT 18 0600  14.5 N  175.0 E  1004   30    30  JMA: 14.8 N, 175.7 E
02 OCT 18 1200  15.3 N  175.3 E  1004   30    30  JMA: 15.0 N, 175.8 E
02 OCT 18 1800  16.0 N  176.0 E  1004   30    30  JMA: 15.0 N, 175.9 E
02 OCT 19 0000  17.1 N  176.2 E  1004   30    30  JMA: 18.0 N, 177.5 E
02 OCT 19 0600  17.6 N  176.3 E  1004   25    30  JMA: 18.0 N, 177.2 E
02 OCT 19 1200  17.0 N  174.0 E  1010         25  JMA Bulletin

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: MAYSAK                Cyclone Number: 29W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None        JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0223

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

02 OCT 26 1200  18.0 N  163.0 E  1008         25  JMA Bulletin
02 OCT 26 1800  20.0 N  161.7 E  1008   30    25
02 OCT 27 0000  19.1 N  160.7 E  1008   30    30  JMA: 20.5 N, 161.4 E
02 OCT 27 0600  20.1 N  160.2 E  1008   30    30
02 OCT 27 1200  21.8 N  159.4 E  1008   35    30
02 OCT 27 1800  23.3 N  159.6 E  1004   45    30
02 OCT 28 0000  24.7 N  158.7 E   996   50    40
02 OCT 28 0600  25.1 N  159.0 E   992   45    45
02 OCT 28 1200  26.1 N  160.0 E   992   45    45
02 OCT 28 1800  27.6 N  161.4 E   985   55    50
02 OCT 29 0000  29.1 N  163.5 E   985   50    55
02 OCT 29 0600  30.1 N  166.2 E   980   50    55
02 OCT 29 1200  31.6 N  169.5 E   985   50    55  Extratropical per JTWC
02 OCT 29 1800  31.6 N  173.3 E   990         50  JMA Bulletins
02 OCT 30 0000  33.4 N  177.9 E   994         40
02 OCT 30 0600  35.0 N  179.0 W   996         40  Extratropical per JMA

Note: The 10-min avg MSW estimates from NMCC are given in the table
below.

   Date   Time      Estimates 10-min avg MSW in kts
          (GMT)        NMCC
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

02 OCT 28 0000          35
02 OCT 28 0600          40
02 OCT 28 1200          40
02 OCT 28 1800          45
02 OCT 29 0000          45
02 OCT 29 0600          45
02 OCT 29 1200          45
02 OCT 29 1800          40

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
  values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
  Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
  located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   Occasionally some information may
  have been gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks and other
  bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which
  is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
  ological Centre for the basin.
 
     The reported maximum sustained winds are based on a 1-minute
  averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
  weather services for tropical cyclone warnings.     For synoptic
  observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
  3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
  modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
  hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied.


                            Systems Tracked
                            ---------------

   Tropical Depression                                 22 - 25 Oct

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: None    Basin: NIO


   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

02 OCT 22 2030  13.8 N   82.0 E  1003   30        TCFA from JTWC
02 OCT 23 0300  14.0 N   81.5 E         25        IMD Bulletin
02 OCT 23 1200  14.5 N   82.5 E         25        Bangladesh Bulletin
02 OCT 23 1800  15.6 N   82.0 E         25                "
02 OCT 23 2030  13.4 N   81.6 E  1004   25        TCFA #2 from JTWC
02 OCT 24 1800  13.0 N   81.5 E  1004   25        STWO from JTWC
02 OCT 24 2030  13.4 N   82.2 E         30        TCFA #3 from JTWC
02 OCT 25 1930  14.7 N   80.7 E  1006   20        TCFA cancelled

Note: The track for this depression is very sketchy and jumpy, being
based on several different sources and for an ill-defined system with
possible multiple LLCCs.

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
  average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
  issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji, and
  Wellington, New Zealand.  The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
  estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor,
  Hawaii.  The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with
  those from the Southern Hemisphere centres and annotations made in the
  Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm
  or more.


                            Systems Tracked
                            ---------------

   Tropical Depression (01F)                           21 - 22 Oct

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: None    Basin: SPA
Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 01F

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

02 OCT 21 0900  14.0 S  167.0 E  1003
02 OCT 21 2100  18.0 S  169.0 E  1004
02 OCT 22 0600  19.0 S  170.0 E  1003
02 OCT 22 1800  21.0 S  176.0 E  1002

Note: No MSW values were indicated in the Tropical Disturbance Summaries
from Fiji.  The system was given only a very low potential for tropical
cyclone development, so peak winds likely did not exceed 25 kts.

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

             !!!!!!  IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ  !!!!!!

     It has been brought to my attention that I should repeat in the
  cyclone tracks file the caveat which is included in the Author's
  Note at the end of the cyclone summaries.   The tropical cyclone
  tracks which I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/
  advisories/advices/bulletins from the various tropical cyclone
  warning agencies around the world.   Users of these tracks should
  be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during
  post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and
  analysts at the several warning centers.

     For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical
  cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of
  the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>

     The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their
  Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best
  tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the
  North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere:

     http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>

     In the near future I shall contact the other tropical warning
  centers to see if I can locate any links to sites where their "best
  tracks" might be archived.


  PREPARED BY:

  Gary Padgett              [email protected]


  SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS BY:

  Michael V. Padua          [email protected] 
                            [email protected]

  Huang Chunliang           [email protected]

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

Document: trak0210.htm
Updated: 27th December 2006

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