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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October 2002
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

                  MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
                      
                               OCTOBER, 2002
                                

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

  *************************************************************************

                            OCTOBER HIGHLIGHTS
                      
  --> Another Central North Pacific hurricane forms
  --> Third Category 5 hurricane of year forms in Eastern Pacific and
      makes damaging strike in Mexico
  --> Northwest Pacific unusually quiet--only two named systems

  *************************************************************************

              ***** Feature of the Month for October *****

                SOUTHEAST PACIFIC CYCLONE OF APRIL, 2002


     A cyclonic storm system formed in the Southeast Pacific in the
  vicinity of Pitcairn Island in early April, 2002.  No tropical or
  subtropical cyclone warnings were issued on this system, although
  the New Zealand Meteorological Service did issue gale warnings in
  association with the LOW.   The system was accompanied by some
  organized deep convection and at one point somewhat resembled a
  subtropical or even tropical cyclone.   The author was present in
  several discussions at the AMS Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology
  Conference in San Diego in which the system was referred to as
  "the unnamed Southeast Pacific tropical cyclone" in early April.

     I later asked Dr. Karl Hoarau of Cergy-Pontoise University near
  Paris, who has had considerable experience in working with Dvorak
  analysis, to see if he could locate some images of the storm and
  render an opinion regarding its intensity and classification.  Karl
  sent me the results of his analysis and a track for the cyclone
  several months ago.  These are included below following a brief
  synoptic history of the cyclone.  A special thanks to Karl for taking
  time to study the storm.

     A weak LOW was located approximately 325 nm east of Pitcairn Island
  around 1800 UTC on 31 March.  The system moved slowly southwestward
  and gradually intensified with winds reaching gale force (1-min avg)
  around 1800 UTC on 2 April when it was centered about 225 nm south of
  Pitcairn.  Motion then became southerly, and the system reached its
  peak intensity of 55 kts at 1800 UTC on 3 April when located about
  400 nm south of Pitcairn.   It subsequently moved southwestward and
  weakened quickly.  (All the intensities referred to above were taken
  from Karl's track.)  Following is Karl's discussion of the cyclone
  (slightly revised and edited):
     
     "This tropical cyclone formed from an upper trough related to a cold
  front.  Despite a moderate northerly vertical wind shear, the stage of
  tropical depression was reached on the morning of April 1st.    The
  depression was moving southwestward at 7 kts.  The satellite picture
  showed a fully-exposed LLCC situated 0.5 deg north of the overcast with
  outflow good on the western side of the tropical depression.  During
  the night of April 2nd, the shear increased and the distance between
  the LLCC and the CDO reached 0.8 deg.   As a result, the MSW diminished
  to 25 kts.  Under the influence of the subtropical ridge, the depression
  was moving west-southwestward at 11 kts.  In the afternoon, the shear
  lessened a little and the intensification resumed.   So, the minimal
  tropical storm intensity of 35 kts was reached at 1800 UTC.   The storm
  still had a shear pattern with a fully-exposed LLCC located 0.3 deg west-
  northwest of a 110 nm diameter CDO.  The cloud top temperatures were in
  the range of -60 C to -66 C.  The tropical storm had by then curved its
  track towards the south at 4 kts.  QuikScat data showed winds of 40 kts
  on the morning of April 3rd.  In the evening, the maximum intensity of
  55 kts was reached when the storm was centered near 31S, 130W, over SSTs
  of around 26 C.  The convection had expanded and the LLCC was located
  0.5 deg into the eastern part of the CDO with cloud top temperatures
  of -65 C to -69 C.  The system exhibited a single polar outflow channel.
  Shortly afterwards the cyclone underwent a dramatic weakening due to the
  entrainment of dry air and westerly shear.  By 1200 UTC on 4 April the
  fully-exposed LLCC was not associated anymore with a convective overcast.
  So, within 18 hours after peaking in intensity the severe tropical storm
  had weakened to a tropical disturbance."

  NOTE: SAB rendered a rating of T2.5/2.5 at 03/0752 UTC, but on the
  next bulletin at 03/1452 UTC assigned a subtropical rating of ST2.5/2.5.
  In an e-mail Karl stated that he disagreed with the 1452 UTC rating from
  SAB--he feels it was still tropical with a T-number of 3.5.

     Below is the track which Karl prepared for the cyclone:

    DATE    TIME   LAT      LON    MSW (1-min)
            (UTC)                    (kts)
  --------------------------------------------

  02 MAR 31 1800  24.7 S  124.0 W      20
  02 APR 01 0000  25.0 S  124.3 W      25
  02 APR 01 0600  25.5 S  124.8 W      30
  02 APR 01 1200  26.2 S  125.6 W      30
  02 APR 01 1800  26.8 S  126.6 W      30
  02 APR 02 0000  27.3 S  127.7 W      25
  02 APR 02 0600  27.7 S  128.7 W      25
  02 APR 02 1200  28.2 S  129.7 W      30
  02 APR 02 1800  28.6 S  130.1 W      35
  02 APR 03 0000  28.9 S  130.2 W      40
  02 APR 03 0600  29.7 S  130.2 W      40
  02 APR 03 1200  30.6 S  129.9 W      50
  02 APR 03 1800  31.2 S  130.2 W      55
  02 APR 04 0000  31.8 S  130.8 W      45
  02 APR 04 0600  32.4 S  131.6 W      30
  02 APR 04 1200  33.1 S  132.6 W      25


                     ADDENDUM TO SEPTEMBER SUMMARY

     I also asked Karl to render an opinion on the Northwest Pacific
  system classified as Tropical Storm Changmi by JMA and NMCC, but not
  treated as a tropical cyclone by JTWC.  Karl is of the opinion that
  Changmi was not a tropical cyclone.  Referring to a NOAA 15 infrared
  image taken on 22 September when Changmi was near its peak intensity,
  Karl states "there is a large low-level circulation center sheared
  south of a very small area of deep convection.  The clouds in the
  northern part of the system are at mid and high levels.  If we had
  QuikScat data, we probably would have seen that the strongest winds
  were not near the center."

  *************************************************************************
  
                            ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for October:  1 tropical depression


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida:
  discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather
  outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc.    Some
  additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly
  summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on
  TPC/NHC's website.     All references to sustained winds imply a
  1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted.


                   Atlantic Tropical Activity for October
                   --------------------------------------

     The trend toward active Octobers in the Atlantic basin seen since 1995
  did not continue in 2002.  No tropical storms or hurricanes formed, and
  only one tropical depression graced Atlantic waters.  Over the period
  1950-2001, the average numbers of "named" tropical storms, hurricanes,
  and intense hurricanes has been 1.67, 1.10, and 0.33, respectively.  For
  the seven-year period 1995-2001, these averages have been 3.0, 1.57, and
  0.86.  There were a couple of holdovers from September:  former Hurricane
  Kyle was active as a tropical storm or depression over the western
  Atlantic subtropics during the first two weeks of the month, eventually
  brushing the North Carolina coastline before becoming extratropical and
  accelerating away from the U. S. mainland, and Hurricane Lili was active
  in the Gulf of Mexico during the first few days of the month before
  making landfall in Louisiana.  (See the September summary for the full
  reports on those two cyclones.)  A report on Tropical Depression 14 is
  included below.



                            TROPICAL DEPRESSION
                                  (TC-14)
                              14 - 18 October
                  ---------------------------------------

     An area of disturbed weather formed on 11 October over the south-
  western Caribbean Sea.  Surface pressures were low and atmospheric
  conditions were expected to become more favorable for development over
  the next few days.  The disturbance appeared better organized the next
  day as it drifted north-northwestward, and the Tropical Weather Outlooks
  from TPC/NHC mentioned the potential for heavy rains over portions of
  Central America.   The weak surface LOW was located just east of the
  Nicaraguan coast on the 13th.  Convection was becoming better organized
  and environmental conditions were steadily improving.  A U. S. Air Force
  Reserves' reconnaissance aircraft investigated the system in the after-
  noon but could not find a closed LLCC.  Heavy rains from the disturbance
  were beginning to affect Jamaica also.

     NHC issued the first advisory on Tropical Depression 14 at 1500 UTC
  on 14 October, locating the center about 215 nm south of the Isle of
  Youth with the MSW estimated at 25 kts, based on a blend of surface data
  and a 30-kt Dvorak estimate.  The LLCC was located on the western edge
  of the deepest convection under modest southwesterly shear.  There was
  no reconnaissance mission during the afternoon--the first plane was
  damaged by lightning and a second could not take off due to heavy light-
  ning.  The depression was moving northward at 10 kts and a tropical storm
  warning was issued for portions of western and central Cuba.  By 2100 UTC
  the center had become fully-exposed due to shearing; however, the MSW
  was increased to 30 kts based on Dvorak ratings of T2.0 from SAB and
  TAFB, and also a report of 25-kt winds and a MSLP of 1009 mb from ship
  KMCB at 1800 UTC.  The ship was located 60 nm east of the center and was
  not under any deep convection.

     TD-14 meandered around the Northwest Caribbean on the 15th, turning
  northeastward during the morning.  The system remained highly sheared
  with little banding evident in infrared imagery.  The highest FLW found
  by reconnaissance aircraft was 35 kts east of the center in convection.
  The upper-level outflow pattern was impressive, but the LLCC was at least
  120 nm west of the upper-level anticyclone.  The 2100 UTC advisory noted
  that the center had reformed to the north-northeast near a recent burst
  of deep convection.  An afternoon reconnaissance mission found peak winds
  of 37 kts with a CP of 1002 mb.  The depression was then centered about
  50 nm west-southwest of Grand Cayman, moving north-northeastward at
  9 kts.   By very early on 16 October the convective bands had become
  mainly linear and were east of the still well-defined LLCC.  However,
  shear was increasing and a cold front rapidly approaching, so the chances
  for tropical storm development began to appear very slight.  Reports from
  the 16/0000 UTC reconnaissance mission showed very little northeasterly
  flow in the northwest quadrant, indicating that the circulation was on
  the verge of opening up into a trough.

     By 1500 UTC the depression had accelerated northeastward and moved
  inland over central Cuba north of Cienfuegos.  A ship reported sustained
  winds of 30 kts, gusting to 36 kts.  Interestingly, the 2100 UTC advisory
  reported that during the afternoon, surface observations and
  reconnaissance data indicated that the old center had dissipated with a
  new one forming south of central Cuba.  This new center had subsequently
  moved inland also over central Cuba.   The 2100 UTC advisory was the last
  from NHC--dry air entrainment and strong southwesterly shear had caused
  most of the deep convection near the center to dissipate, and the system
  was rapidly losing tropical characteristics and merging with the cold
  front.

     It should be noted that the Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) initiated
  advisories on TD-14 in the event that the system deepened into a strong
  extratropical cyclone and rapidly accelerated toward the Maritime
  Provinces.  The CHC continued to treat TD-14 as a tropical system for
  twelve hours after NHC had dropped the system.  The final CHC bulletin
  on the depression at 17/0600 UTC placed the center about 90 nm north-
  northeast of Ciego Avila, Cuba, moving northeastward with 30-kt winds.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for October:  1 tropical storm
                         2 hurricanes **

  ** - one of these formed in the Central Pacific and moved across the
       Dateline into the Northwest Pacific basin


                       Sources of Information
                       ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
  Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
  locations west of longitude 140W):  discussions, public advisories,
  forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
  disturbance statements, etc.  Some additional information may have
  been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
  specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website.  All references to
  sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise
  noted.


              Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for October
              -----------------------------------------------

     After a September lull in tropical cyclone, and especially hurricane,
  activity, the Northeast Pacific basin rallied in late October.   Two
  hurricanes and one tropical storm formed, all during the latter third of
  the month.  One of the hurricanes, Huko, formed in the Central North
  Pacific region and was the third tropical storm and second hurricane of
  the season to form in that area, the others being Tropical Storm Alika
  and Hurricane Ele in late August.  Like Ele, Huko crossed the Dateline
  and was reclassified as a typhoon.  Tropical Storm Lowell formed around
  130W and eventually moved west of 140W into the Central Pacific, giving
  the Honolulu-based CPHC two simultaneous tropical storms to cover for a
  few days in late October.  Hurricane Huko passed a couple hundred miles
  south of Johnston Island, and several days later as a typhoon, passed
  quite near Wake Island.  The extratropical remnants of the storm later
  re-entered the Central Pacific moving eastward.

     The big story of the month, however, was Hurricane Kenna--the third
  Category 5 hurricane to form in the Eastern North Pacific in 2002.  Kenna
  also became the most intense tropical cyclone to strike Mexico's West
  Coast since Hurricane Madeline in 1976.  The U. S. Air Force Reserves'
  Hurricane Hunters flew some missions into Kenna and measured a central
  pressure (adjusted) of 915 mb--tying 1973's Hurricane Ava for the lowest
  central pressure actually measured in the Northeast Pacific basin.

     The summaries below on Hurricane Kenna and Tropical Storm Lowell were
  written by John Wallace of San Antonio, Texas.  A special thanks to John
  for writing the reports.



                           HURRICANE KENNA
                              (TC-14E)
                           22 - 26 October
                 -----------------------------------

  A. Introduction
  ---------------

     Hurricane Kenna was remarkable.  Its minimum CP of 915 mb ties that
  of Hurricane Ava (1973) as the lowest ever recorded in the basin, and 
  also makes it one of the lowest CPs measured in the Western Hemisphere.
  Kenna was also the record-breaking third Saffir/Simpson Category Five
  hurricane of the season, a first since accurate intensity estimates 
  began in the early 1970s.  It was also the strongest hurricane to make
  landfall in Mexico since Hurricane Madeline (1976)--a hurricane that
  incidentally also made landfall in October, as did the disastrous
  Hurricane Pauline (1997).  As a month in which westerlies are typically
  encroaching deep into the Northeast Pacific basin, it is "prime time"
  for landfalling Pacific storms.


  B. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     The disturbance that was to become Hurricane Kenna was first noted
  in the Northeast Pacific late on 20 October as a broad cyclonic area of
  strong convection developed south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.   The 
  disturbance was well-organized by late on the 21st, and the first 
  advisory on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was issued at 0300 UTC on 
  22 October when it was located about 310 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico. 
  A mid-level ridge over southern Mexico steered the depression on a 
  steady west-northwesterly track.


  C. Track and Intensity History
  ------------------------------

     Though the depression was initially ill-defined, that changed upon 
  its upgrade to Tropical Storm Kenna on the second advisory when it was
  located roughly 320 nm south of Acapulco.  Kenna's first day as a storm 
  was relatively uneventful as it paralleled the coast--the inner core 
  was slow to consolidate and its upper-level anticyclone was not ideally 
  positioned over the LLCC.  On the whole, however, conditions were quite
  favorable for intensification, a situation that became abundantly clear
  early on the 23rd when a sustained intensification trend began.  An eye-
  like feature was evident in TRMM imagery by 0415 UTC that day, and Kenna
  was upgraded to a hurricane at 1500 UTC.  

     On the 24th, Kenna's track began a long-expected right turn as it 
  rounded the periphery of the ridge to its north and came under the
  influence of a well-defined mid to upper-level subtropical jet stream
  covering much of the NEP basin.  Kenna strengthened as it turned north-
  westward, then northward, with its MSW reaching 100 kts at 0900 UTC on
  the 24th.  The new track was threatening, and the first watches and
  warnings for the coast were issued as the storm began recurvature on
  the 24th.

     The "Hurricane Hunters" reached Kenna around 1800 UTC on the 24th, 
  and found a monster of a hurricane.  On their first pass through the
  system, they found a peak FLW of 145 kts with a CP of 921 mb; on the 
  second pass they recorded a CP of 918 mb, which the NHC adjusted to
  915 mb.  A dropsonde released at this time recorded winds as high as
  189 kts and a mean wind of 172 kts in the lowest 500 meters, which were
  in accord with a 1-minute MSW of 140 kts (1).  (Editor's Note:  The
  adjustment of the central pressure from 918 mb to 915 mb was made
  because the dropsonde measured a surface wind of 27 kts, suggesting
  that the instrument was not in the center of the eye, and hence not at
  the point of lowest pressure.)

     Kenna turned sharply northeastward ahead of a trough as it peaked. 
  Hurricanes and typhoons often peak in intensity during recurvature, so
  this development was perhaps no surprise.   Kenna reached its peak MSW
  of 145 kts at 0900 UTC on 25 October when located 85 nm west-southwest
  of Cabo Corrientes.  Weakening as it approached the coast, Kenna made 
  landfall near San Blas, Mexico, as a "Cat Four" around 1700 UTC on the
  25th.  At landfall the MSW was estimated at 120 kts and the minimum CP
  was around 943 mb.

    Kenna's circulation quickly collapsed over Mexico's rugged terrain,
  and its rapid northeastward track--over 21 kts by 2100 UTC on the 
  25th--kept flooding from being catastrophic.  The final advisory was 
  issued on Tropical Depression Kenna at 0300 UTC on 26 October when it
  was situated about 110 nm south-southwest of Saltillo, Mexico.  The
  hurricane had dissipated only seven hours after making landfall!  The
  remnant circulation was no longer identifiable by the following day.


  D. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     Damage from Kenna was substantial.  San Blas was apparently hardest
  hit with 80% of the houses damaged, according to one news source.
  Another source stated that storm waves carried shrimp boats over 
  275 meters from the docks in San Blas.  One preliminary damage figure
  for San Blas is $50 million.   According to ReliefWeb, 1540 houses in
  San Blas were damaged while the rural areas around San Blas, Tecuala,
  and Acaponeta lost their entire banana, tobacco, and fruit crops.  This
  same source also reported that flash floods and mud slides occurred
  around Aguas Calientes, Zacatecas, Durango, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, San
  Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas.  At least 52 people were injured by flying
  debris in Puerto Vallarta.  There are three known casualties as of this
  writing:  two women in the state of Nayarit, and another in the state of
  Jalisco.  All told, damage and casualties were surprisingly mild for so
  strong a hurricane.    This is probably a testament both to the
  preparedness of the Mexican government and to Kenna's rapid movement
  directly inland, unlike Pauline's prolonged straddling of the coast.

  Editor's Note:  Some outstanding pictures and an eyewitness description
  of Hurricane Kenna can be found on Geoff Mackley's website:

     http://www.rambocam.com/kenna.html


  E. References
  -------------

  (1)  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2002/dis/ep142002.discus.012.html

  (2)  Some damage, casualty info:

       http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/18341/newsDate/
       28-Oct-2002/story.htm

       http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2002/
       2002-10-26-kenna-after_x.htm

  (3)  ReliefWeb links:

       http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/480fa8736b88bbc3c12564f6004c8ad5/
       49a7d35ba6a6222585256c60006e37c7?OpenDocument

       http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/480fa8736b88bbc3c12564f6004c8ad5/
       214b233c9b165ce7c1256c6000611662?OpenDocument

  (Report written by John Wallace)



                         TROPICAL STORM LOWELL
                               (TC-15E)
                           22 - 31 October
               -----------------------------------------

     The pre-Lowell disturbance was first evident in the Pacific ITCZ
  late on 20 October.  It slowly organized over the following two days, 
  and the NHC upgraded it to Tropical Depression Fifteen-E at 2100 UTC
  on 22 October when it was located roughly 1490 nm east of Hilo, Hawaii.
  Relatively favorable upper-level conditions and warm SSTs encouraged
  the depression to strengthen to Tropical Storm Lowell by 0900 UTC on
  23 October, still about 1490 nm east of Hilo.  In fact there were hints
  of a partial eyewall as early as 23/0338 UTC in AMSU imagery.  After a
  brief northwest trot, a weak subtropical ridge began to steer the new
  tropical storm on a more climatologically-favored westward track.

     Lowell's MSW strengthened to 40 kts on the 23rd, but increasing 
  and persistent shear beginning later that day weakened the storm 
  to a depression on the 24th.  Lowell barely held on for the next 
  three days as it wobbled into the Central Pacific on the 25th in 
  relatively weak easterlies.  Nevertheless, the cyclone re-attained 
  tropical storm strength at 2100 UTC on the 27th, joining Tropical 
  Storm Huko farther to the west.   An October tropical storm is rare
  for the Central North Pacific in itself, but the simultaneous occurrence
  of two in this month was extraordinary, and perhaps unprecedented.

     Lowell strengthened modestly on its seemingly drunken westward 
  track, and reached its peak MSW of 45 kts and minimum CP of 1002 mb at
  1500 UTC on 28 October while located 695 nm southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.
  The regenerated Lowell was extremely small:  at its peak, the radii of
  storm-force winds were no more than 30 nm.   The storm weakened soon
  after its peak intensity had been reached as a trough dug southward
  across the Central Pacific, shearing its picayune circulation.   Lowell
  weakened to a depression on the 29th, and its track turned slightly to
  the west-southwest.  The final advisory on Tropical Depression Lowell
  was issued at 0300 UTC on 31 October when the dissipating system was
  located about 590 nm southeast of Hilo.

     No casualties or damage are known to have resulted from Tropical
  Storm Lowell.

  (Report written by John Wallace)



                          HURRICANE/TYPHOON HUKO
                            (TC-03C / TY 0224)
                         24 October - 7 November
               -------------------------------------------

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     A Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
  Center (CPHC) in Honolulu at 2000 UTC on 21 October noted that a large
  area of convection was located approximately 740 nm south of Hawaii's
  Big Island, moving slowly westward.  The were no signs of development
  at the time.   A surface trough in the region helped to ignite sporadic
  convection on the 22nd, but there was no significant change in the
  disturbance.   By 1400 UTC on 23 October a weak low-pressure area was
  nearly stationary about 600 nm south of the Big Island, accompanied by
  cloudiness and thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms had increased overnight
  but were not well-organized.  At 24/0800 UTC the disturbance was located
  about 700 nm south-southeast of Honolulu and had become better organized
  during the evening with environmental conditions favoring further
  development.

     CPHC issued the first advisory on Tropical Depression 03C at 2100 UTC
  on the 24th.   The center was located about 725 nm south-southwest of
  Honolulu with the MSW estimated at 25 kts.  A QuikScat pass had showed
  25-kt southerlies east of the center with the system located at the
  western end of a monsoon trough.  Infrared imagery revealed a new surge
  in convection to the east of the LLCC with a convective band wrapping
  toward the south and southwest.  The depression remained quasi-stationary
  on the 25th with little change in intensity.  The circulation was broad
  and convection was spotty and not well-organized.   An increase in
  convection was seen around 1500 UTC but the cloud tops hadn't cooled
  significantly.  With CI estimates of 25 and 30 kts, the MSW was upped to
  30 kts at 2100 UTC.  Deep convection was arranged in two symmetric bands,
  one spiralling northward from the center and the other southward.


  B. Track and Intensity History
  ------------------------------

     CPHC upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Huko at 0300 UTC on
  26 October.  Huko was located approximately 750 nm south-southwest of
  Honolulu at the time.  The upgrade was based primarily on a Dvorak T2.5
  rating from SAB.  Huko was forecast to trek northwestward initially due
  to a digging trough to the northwest.   Huko was the third tropical storm
  to develop in 2002 in the Central North Pacific between longitudes 140W
  and 180.  The annual average for native Central North Pacific tropical
  storms or hurricanes is about one.  Three named storms formed in this
  area in 1984, 1992, and 1994, and four were named in 1982.   Tropical
  Storm Huko slowly intensified on the 26th with winds reaching 45 kts
  by 1800 UTC.  The storm's motion by that time had become westerly as
  ridging in the low and mid-levels remained strong to the north of the
  cyclone.

     Huko continued westward on 27 October and had slowly strengthened to
  55 kts by 1200 UTC.  Intensification halted thereafter as a strong upper-
  level trough northwest of the storm created some shearing.  The trough
  also induced a northwestward motion through late on the 28th.  By around
  1500 UTC on 28 October the trough was moving past Huko and the storm
  began to show signs of strengthening once more.  Minimal hurricane
  intensity was attained around 1800 UTC with Huko's center located about
  625 nm east-southeast of Johnston Island.  The upgrade was based on CI
  estimates of 65 kts, but the storm had a ragged appearance.  Some north-
  westerly shear was affecting Huko, and the official forecast at that time
  intensified the storm to 70 kts followed by gradual weakening.

     The high-level light northwesterly shearing continued on 29 October
  and Huko remained a minimal hurricane.  The storm also wobbled about,
  remaining essentially quasi-stationary.  Huko lost much of its convection
  during the night, but by 2100 UTC a band of deep convection appeared to
  be reforming close to the LLCC.  The cyclone was downgraded to a 55-kt
  tropical storm at 30/0300 UTC.  The convective band noted six hours
  earlier had collapsed and more recent convection which had developed near
  the center after 0000 UTC was also weakening.  The storm's motion had
  become more westerly since the loss of its deep convection had made it
  more receptive to low-level steering.  Huko's MSW was further reduced to
  50 kts at 1500 UTC and the official forecast weakened the system to
  depression status as it approached the Dateline.  However, by 2100 UTC
  satellite intensity estimates had shown some slight intensification.
  The MSW remained at 50 kts, but the official forecast reversed itself
  and now called for gradually strengthening as Huko continued westward.

     By 0300 UTC on 31 October the CDO had increased in size and Huko
  appeared to be strengthening as the northwesterly shearing relaxed.  The
  MSW was upped to 60 kts, and at 0900 UTC Huko was re-upgraded to
  hurricane status.  The storm continued to move steadily westward, and
  at 2100 UTC was located approximately 200 nm south of Johnston Island.
  On 1 November Huko struggled to maintain hurricane status:  the CDO
  shrank in areal coverage and cloud tops warmed slightly.  This was
  unusual given that vertical shear was light and SSTs warm.  However, by
  1200 UTC the CDO had increased in area once more and a warm spot was
  beginning to form, so the MSW was increased to 75 kts.  This was the
  hurricane's peak intensity, though it was maintained for several days.
  An upper-level trough to the northwest brought some shear to Huko late
  on the 1st as well as inducing a more northwesterly motion, but the storm
  appeared to be maintaining its intensity with excellent outflow to the
  north and northeast.  Huko was well west of Johnston Island by the after-
  noon (local) of the 1st, but bands of convection were still moving over
  the island, bringing occasional heavy showers and moderate east to south-
  east winds.

     Hurricane Huko continued trekking westward on 2 November, turning a
  little toward the west-northwest at a slower forward speed around 1800
  UTC due to the effects of the aforementioned upper-level trough.
  Satellite imagery revealed a slight deterioration in organization, but
  the MSW was maintained at 75 kts.  By 0600 UTC on 3 November, Huko had
  moved into an area of deep and strong easterlies and left behind the
  shearing effects of the mid-latitude trough which had passed by to the
  north.  The storm crossed the International Dateline shortly before
  1200 UTC at a point about 600 nm west of Johnston Island, thus becoming
  the second tropical cyclone of 2002 to transform from a hurricane into
  a typhoon.     JTWC, NMCC and JMA began issuing warnings with JMA
  designating Huko as TY 0224.   Huko was moving westward at 15 kts as it
  crossed the Dateline, and the translational speed had increased to 18 kts
  by 1800 UTC as it was steered by a strong mid-level ridge to the north.

     By 04/0000 UTC Typhoon Huko's forward motion had increased further to
  26 kts--an exceptionally fast speed for a tropical cyclone which has not
  recurved into the mid-latitude westerlies.  JTWC reduced the MSW slightly
  to 70 kts--earlier some dry air entrainment had been noted.  The typhoon
  was located approximately 500 nm east-southeast of Wake Island and was
  racing in the general direction of the island.  At 1200 UTC Huko was
  centered about 220 nm east-southeast of Wake Island, and by 1800 UTC was
  only about 50 nm northeast of the island.  (The original 1800 UTC warning
  from JTWC had placed Huko 90 nm east of the island, but an amended
  warning was issued later, relocating the system about 45 nm northwest of
  the original 1800 UTC position.)  The MSW was also bumped back up briefly
  to 75 kts based on CI estimates of 77 kts.

     Typhoon Huko sped by Wake Island at 27 kts, but began to gradually
  slow down and turn more northwestward as it moved toward a weakness in
  the ridge to its north.  At 1800 UTC on 5 November the storm reached its
  point of recurvature approximately 375 nm northwest of Wake Island, and
  the intensity had come down to 65 kts.  Dry air was being entrained into
  the southern semicircle and extratropical transition had begun.  By
  0600 UTC on the 6th Huko was moving east-northeastward at 14 kts, and
  twelve hours later this motion had increased to 24 kts.  The storm began
  to weaken steadily as it encountered increasing shear and interacted with
  a baroclinic zone.  JTWC downgraded Huko to tropical storm status at
  06/0600 UTC--JMA and NMCC had done so at 05/0000 UTC and 05/1800 UTC,
  respectively.  The final warning from JTWC on Huko was issued at 0600 UTC
  on 7 November, placing the center approximately 450 nm west of Midway
  Island.  Satellite imagery indicated that the system had completed extra-
  tropical transition.  The final JMA bulletin on the remnant gale placed
  it just west of the Dateline at 07/1200 UTC about 225 nm northwest of
  Midway Island.   Severe weather in northern California several days
  later was blamed on the remnant circulation of Huko.

     The peak 10-min avg MSW assigned by JMA and NMCC for Huko was 70 kts,
  which would be equivalent to a 1-min avg MSW of about 80 kts--in good
  agreement with JTWC's peak MSW of 75 kts.   The lowest estimated CP
  assigned by CPHC east of the Dateline was 980 mb, but JMA estimated the
  CP as low as 965 mb at 04/1200 UTC.


  C. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     No reports of any damage or casualties resulting from Hurricane/
  Typhoon Huko have been received.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for October:  3 tropical depressions **
                         1 tropical storm
                         2 typhoons ++

  ** - one of these classified as a tropical depression by JMA only

  ++ - one of these was classified as a typhoon by JTWC only/the other
       formed in the Central North Pacific and crossed the Dateline at
       typhoon intensity


                         Sources of Information
                         ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   In the companion
  tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
  from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
  positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.   All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise noted.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
  warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
  Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
  Administration (PAGASA).  Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China,
  sends me each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the
  National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather
  Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO).  A very
  special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so
  reliably provide.

     In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:   JTWC's depression number, the 
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
  area of warning responsibility.


              Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for October
              -----------------------------------------------

     As the month of October opened Typhoon Higos was roaring across
  eastern Japan, passing very near Tokyo on the 1st day of the month.  The
  storm raced northward and became extratropical near Sakhalin Island.
  (See the September summary for the complete report on Higos.)  Two
  storms were named in October.  Bavi formed during the second week of
  the month as a large monsoon depression north of Chuuk.  The storm
  followed a generally northerly track out of the tropics, passing well
  east of the Marianas.  JTWC upgraded Bavi to typhoon status, although
  the storm remained large with monsoon depression characteristics
  throughout its life.  Tropical Storm Maysak formed well west of Wake
  Island on the 27th and quickly moved northward and northeastward,
  becoming extratropical on the 29th.  The storm may have flirted with
  typhoon intensity on the 29th, based upon microwave and QuikScat data.

     Three depressions formed during October.  Two of these were warned on
  (and hence numbered) by JTWC.  Tropical Depression 27W formed (per JMA's
  bulletins) on 15 October about 250 nm west of Wake Island.  JTWC issued
  their first warning at 17/0000 UTC, placing the center approximately
  550 nm west-southwest of Wake Island.  TD-27W moved on a generally west-
  southwesterly track, eventually weakening and dissipating about 225 nm
  east-northeast of Saipan by the 19th.   Around the same time, Tropical
  Depression 28W formed just west of the Dateline about 500 nm northeast
  of Majuro.  This depression moved slowly northward and dissipated about
  450 nm east-southeast of Wake Island on the 19th.  The maximum sustained
  wind in both these depressions was estimated at 30 kts by both JTWC and
  JMA.

     Another system was classified as a tropical depression by JMA and CWB,
  but by no other warning agency.  JMA treated the system as a 30-kt
  depression on 12 October, when it remained quasi-stationary about 425 nm
  south-southwest of Hong Kong in the South China Sea.   Taiwan upgraded
  the system to tropical depression status at 13/0000 UTC--the same time
  that JMA downgraded it to a low-pressure area--but kept it at depression
  status for only two warning cycles.   Station Xisha Dao (WMO 59981)
  recorded a two-day rainfall total of 108.2 mm on 11 and 12 October, and
  Shanhu Dao (WMO 59985) recorded 58.8 mm for the same period.  Lingshui
  reported the highest 24-hour amount in Hainan Province:  76 mm in the
  24 hours ending at 14/0000 UTC.  (Thanks to Huang Chunliang for sending
  me the rainfall information.)



                                TYPHOON BAVI
                            (TC-26W / STS 0222)
                               8 - 17 October
                  ---------------------------------------

  Bavi: contributed by Vietnam, is the name of a mountain chain in Hatay
        Province west of Hanoi and the location of a national forest


  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     An area of convection developed about 150 nm north-northwest of
  Pohnpei on 6 October with animated multi-spectral imagery indicating
  cycling deep convection over a weak LLCC.  Also, a 200-mb analysis
  revealed moderate vertical shear with moderate diffluence aloft.  By
  0600 UTC on the 7th the disturbance had migrated westward and was located
  approximately 160 nm east-northeast of Chuuk with the LLCC on the western
  periphery of a monsoon depression.  JTWC upgraded the potential for
  development to fair at this time.   In the meantime, a new area of
  convection had appeared about 320 nm northeast of Pohnpei by 1100 UTC.
  Animated enhanced infrared imagery indicated cycling, disorganized deep
  convection and evidence of mid-level turning along the northeastern
  periphery of the monsoon depression.    A recent QuikScat pass had
  indicated that a LLCC was present, and with weak vertical shear and good
  outflow, the development potential for this disturbance was also assessed
  as fair.

     A TCFA was issued at 07/2000 UTC for the easternmost disturbance, then
  located about 325 nm northeast of Pohnpei.  Deep convection had increased
  and animated water vapor imagery indicated good poleward outflow.  Gales
  were already present in the southeastern quadrant of the monsoon
  depression.  According to Mark Lander, the island of Kosrae (6N, 162E)
  was experiencing sustained winds of gale force and the pressure at
  Pohnpei was less than 1002 mb.  The westernmost disturbance mentioned
  above had dissipated by 08/0000 UTC while the eastern system continued
  to develop.   At 0600 UTC the LLCC was located approximately 350 nm
  north-northeast of Pohnpei--cycling deep convection was located near
  the center with a westerly wind burst to the south.     JMA classified
  the system as a 25-kt tropical depression at 1200 UTC and upped the MSW
  (10-min avg) to 30 kts at 1800 UTC.   JTWC issued a second TCFA at 2000
  UTC.  The broad center was located 325 nm north of Pohnpei with
  increasing consolidation of deep convection near the LLCC.

     The system was located roughly 250 nm north of Chuuk at 0600 UTC on
  9 October.  Animated multi-spectral imagery indicated two areas of
  cycling deep convection while a surface analysis suggested the existence
  of two LLCCs within the monsoon trough.  A concurrent 200-mb analysis
  indicated weak vertical shear with good diffluence aloft.  The first
  warning (from JTWC) on Tropical Depression 26W was issued at 0900 UTC
  with the center located about 300 nm north of Chuuk, moving west-
  northwestward at 14 kts.  The initial warning intensity of 25 kts was
  based on CI estimates of 25 kts.   A 09/0911 UTC TRMM pass and a 09/1001
  UTC SSM/I pass depicted deep convection in the northeastern and south-
  western quadrants, although the LLCC was still elongated and influenced
  by the monsoon trough.

     At 1200 UTC, JMA upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Bavi with
  40-kt winds (10-min avg).  (NMCC also upgraded the system to a 35-kt
  tropical storm at this time.)    Since gales were known to have been
  occurring two days earlier, it seems likely that the reason for JTWC's
  holding back on upgrading the system was due to its lingering monsoon
  depression characteristics.   The 1800 UTC warning from JTWC, which did
  increase the MSW to 30 kts, noted that the system still had monsoon
  depression characteristics with a circulation 600 nm in diameter, light
  winds of 10-15 kts near the center and stronger winds along the
  periphery.  Some new bursts of convection were occurring near the
  center, indicating improved organization and intensification.


  B. Track and Intensity History
  ------------------------------

     JTWC upgraded Bavi to tropical storm status at 10/0600 UTC, although
  the remarks in the warning indicate that the forecaster still considered
  the system to be more of a monsoon depression than a "classic" tropical
  storm.  A low to mid-level ridge north-northeast of the tropical cyclone
  was forecast to weaken and move eastward in response to an eastward-
  moving baroclinic system near Japan.  Bavi chugged on northward toward
  the retreating western periphery of the ridge, remaining quite large but
  with increasing deep convection near the center.  By 1800 UTC the broad
  center was located approximately 270 nm northeast of Saipan and had taken
  a jog slightly toward the north-northwest.  JTWC had upped the MSW to
  45 kts by this time, reflecting better banding features to the north and
  south of the center.  (JMA and NMCC both increased the 10-min avg MSW
  estimate to 50 kts at 1800 UTC.)

     JTWC upped the MSW to 55 kts at 11/0000 UTC and to 60 kts six hours
  later.  The remarks in the 1200 UTC warning are interesting and reveal
  the lingering monsoon depression features of this unusual system.
  Satellite CI estimates were only 45 kts, but an 11/0824 UTC QuikScat
  pass revealed 55-kt winds in the northwest quadrant and winds to 50 kts
  in the southeast quadrant.  The QuikScat pass also indicated that
  relatively lighter winds remained in the center, and SSM/I data revealed
  that the deep convection also was sparse near the center, being located
  instead in bands wrapping in from the southeast and north of the LLCC.
  QuikScat data from 11/1934 UTC and a subsequent pass indicated that Bavi
  had consolidated with less of an area of lighter winds near the center
  and an increase in the coverage of 50-kt winds in the outer bands.
  JTWC upgraded Bavi to typhoon status at 0600 UTC on 12 October, then
  centered approximately 310 nm east of Iwo Jima and still tracking north-
  ward (at 13 kts).  Bavi didn't really look much like a typhoon as CI
  estimates were only 45 and 55 kts--probably one reason why JMA and NMCC
  never upgraded this system to typhoon status.  The JTWC warning at
  12/0600 UTC cited synoptic data as one basis for the upgrade.  Animated
  visible imagery indicated that there was still very little deep
  convection near the LLCC with the convective rain bands remaining on
  the periphery of the system.  (Interestingly, JMA lowered their intensity
  estimate to 45 kts even as JTWC upgraded the storm to 65 kts.)

     Based on JTWC's warnings, Typhoon Bavi reached its peak intensity of
  70 kts at 12/1200 UTC and remained at that level for twelve hours.
  Typhoon intensity was maintained at 13/0000 UTC based primarily on a
  QuikScat pass at 12/1908 UTC since CI estimates were 45 and 55 kts.  JTWC
  downgraded Bavi to a 55-kt tropical storm at 0600 UTC when it was
  located approximately 450 nm northeast of Iwo Jima.  The weakening storm
  by this time was moving northeastward and beginning to interact with a
  baroclinic zone.  Southwesterly shear continued over Bavi and the MSW was
  reduced to 45 kts at 1800 UTC.  (Interestingly, JMA increased the 10-min
  avg MSW to 60 kts at 1800 UTC--their peak for the storm's history.)

     By 0000 UTC on 14 October Bavi was a minimal tropical storm (per JTWC)
  racing northeastward at 32 kts.  A 13/2323 UTC SSM/I pass showed only
  weak convection remaining near the large LLCC.  The final warning from
  JTWC was issued at 14/0600 UTC and placed the now-extratropical Bavi
  about 700 nm east of Misawa, Japan, and racing northeastward at 37 kts.
  Animated water vapor imagery depicted dry air being entrained into the
  system from the west along with decreased convection in the southern
  semicircle.  Also, animated multi-spectral imagery indicated that the
  system was developing a cold front.   JMA's High Seas Bulletins, however,
  treated the remnants of Bavi as a vigorous extratropical storm, reaching
  65 kts at 15/0000 UTC.  The storm continued eastward, crossing the Date-
  line around 16/0600 UTC, still carrying hurricane-force winds.  The final
  bulletin located by the author from MPC placed the LOW south of the
  central Aleutians at 17/0600 UTC, still packing 45-kt winds.


  C. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Typhoon Bavi.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)



                          TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK
                           (TC-29W / STS 0223)
                             26 - 30 October
                  -----------------------------------------

  Maysak: contributed by Cambodia, is a kind of tree


  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     At 0600 UTC on 25 October an area of convection was located about
  200 nm southeast of Wake Island.  This area had persisted for over twelve
  hours, and animated multi-spectral imagery revealed improved organization
  of the deep convection.  Also, a recent SSM/I pass indicated cyclonic
  curvature near a possible LLCC and a 200-mb analysis indicated that the
  system was located within a region of enhanced outflow and favorable
  vertical shear.  A TCFA was issued at 0900 UTC on the 26th, the LLCC then
  being located about 210 nm west-southwest of Wake Island.    Deep
  convection was developing near the LLCC--aided by an upper-level LOW
  to the west-northwest--and animated water vapor imagery indicated good
  outflow to the east and south of the center.

     At 26/1200 UTC, JMA classified the system as a 25-kt (10-min avg)
  tropical depression, and at 1800 UTC JTWC issued the first warning on
  Tropical Depression 29W, locating the center approximately 285 nm west
  of Wake Island.  The MSW was estimated at 30 kts and the depression was
  tracking north-northwestward at 10 kts.   Satellite CI estimates were
  30 and 35 kts at 27/0600 UTC, and the system exhibited a partially-
  exposed LLCC located on the western edge of the deep convection.  TD-29W
  was forecast to continue in a general northerly direction and gradually
  turn northeastward under the steering influence of a low-level
  subtropical ridge to the east.  By 1200 UTC the system was centered about
  425 nm west-northwest of Wake Island, moving north-northwestward at
  15 kts.  Since CI estimates had reached 35 kts, JTWC upgraded TD-29W to
  tropical storm status at this time.


  B. Track and Intensity History
  ------------------------------

     By 27/1800 UTC Tropical Storm 29W was tracking due northward at
  15 kts.  The MSW was upped to 45 kts, based on CI estimates of 35 and
  55 kts, and to 50 kts at 28/0000 UTC when the system was centered about
  550 northwest of Wake Island.  Also at 28/0000 UTC, JMA and NMCC upgraded
  the system to tropical storm status with JMA assigning the name Maysak.
  Even as Maysak was named, animated water vapor imagery indicated dry air
  being entrained into the southern semicircle, suggesting that it was
  beginning to interact with a baroclinic zone.  Based on the degraded
  appearance of the system in satellite imagery, JTWC lowered the MSW back
  to 45 kts at 0600 UTC.  However, at 1800 UTC the intensity was bumped
  up to 55 kts--the peak for the storm.  Infrared imagery indicated that
  some deep convection was being sustained near the LLCC.  Maysak by this
  time was located approximately 1000 nm west of Midway Island, moving
  northeastward at 21 kts.

     JTWC decreased the MSW to 50 kts at 0000 UTC on the 29th, but JMA
  increased their 10-min avg MSW estimate to the peak of 55 kts at the
  same time.  (The peak intensity estimated by NMCC was 45 kts.)  A major
  shortwave trough was approaching from the west, increasing vertical shear
  over the storm.   Maysak continued accelerating east-northeastward, and
  at 29/1200 UTC JTWC deemed the system extratropical and issued their
  final warning, placing the 50-kt storm center approximately 700 nm west-
  northwest of Midway Island and racing east-northeastward at 32 kts.
  JMA, however, continued to treat Maysak as a tropical cyclone for another
  18 hours, finally declaring the system extratropical at 30/0600 UTC when
  located just east of the Dateline north of Midway.

     The increase in intensity reported by JMA was very possibly justified.
  An 85-GHz TRMM image taken at 29/0526 UTC indicates a well-defined center
  with an eye feature.   Indeed, SAB reported a Dvorak T-number of 4.0 for
  their 0600 UTC fix, and scatterometer data from around 0700 UTC yielded
  at least one 65-kt vector.  JMA's peak 10-min avg MSW on the 29th would
  convert to a 1-min avg MSW of about 60-65 kts.   T-numbers from PGTW and
  KGWC were 3.5, which is still 55 kts, so the estimated 50-kt intensity
  in the 0900 UTC warning from JTWC is a little puzzling, especially
  considering the almost 30-kt forward speed.   It's possible that the
  intensity will be bumped up in post-storm analysis.


  C. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Storm
  Maysak have been received.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for October:  1 tropical depression **

  ** - not classified as a tropical depression by JTWC


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   Occasionally some
  information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks
  and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department
  (IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
  Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin.
 
     The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute
  averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
  weather services for tropical cyclone warnings.     For synoptic
  observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
  3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
  modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
  hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied.  In the North Indian Ocean
  basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has
  become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status
  within 48 hours.


              North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for October
              ------------------------------------------------

     No tropical cyclones formed in the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal during
  October.   There was one system, however, which was treated as a tropical
  depression by the Meteorological Services of India and Bangladesh.  JTWC
  issued three TCFAs on the system, but never initiated warnings, even
  though winds were estimated at 30 kts in two of the TCFAs.  The first
  TCFA, issued at 2030 UTC on 22 October, located the ill-defined center
  approximately 125 nm east-northeast of Madras, India.   The depression
  remained ill-defined with possible multiple LLCCs, hence, was not easy
  to track.  It appeared to remain quasi-stationary just off the East Coast
  of India for a couple of days.  JTWC cancelled the TCFA at 1930 UTC on
  the 25th as the system appeared to be weakening.  This final bulletin
  placed a 20-kt center about 125 nm north of Madras.

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for October:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

  Activity for October:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

  Activity for October:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for October:  1 tropical depression


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  South Pacific tropical cyclones are the warnings and advisories
  issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji (for
  waters north of latitude 25S), and Wellington, New Zealand (for
  waters south of latitude 25S).  References to sustained winds imply
  a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Southern Hemisphere
  centres' coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings
  are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
  values included in the tracks file.    Additionally, information
  describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation
  features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC
  warnings.


                 South Pacific Tropical Activity for October
                 -------------------------------------------

     A tropical disturbance in the South Pacific was designated as a weak
  tropical depression (numbered 01F) by Fiji on 21 October.  The broad
  center was located about 225 nm north-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu,
  at 21/0900 UTC.  The center was relocated well to the south and east at
  2100 UTC, and the system began to accelerate to the east-southeast, the
  final bulletin placing it about 200 nm south-southwest of Fiji at 1800
  UTC on the 22nd.  Maximum winds in TD-01F likely did not exceed 25 kts.
  The system was given only a very low potential for tropical cyclone
  development throughout its short life.
                        
  *************************************************************************

                               EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.

  *************************************************************************

  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  in the following manner:

       (a) FTP to:  hrd-type42.nhc.noaa.gov [140.90.176.206]
       (b) Login as: anonymous
       (c) For a password use your e-mail address
       (d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data)
       (e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii)
       (f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name )
           (The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using
           October as an example:   oct02.tracks)
       (g) To exit FTP, type: quit

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries,
  they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD.  The
  summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature:  oct02.sum, for
  example.

    Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua and Michael Pitt):

    http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph> OR http://64.235.42.210>
    http://mpittweather.com>


     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:

    http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html>


                    TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

     JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical 
  Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2001 (2000-2001 season for the Southern 
  Hemisphere).  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.  Recently
  added was the report for the Southern Hemisphere 2001-2002 season.

     The URL is:  http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2001 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 2001
  Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as
  well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.

     The URL is:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>


     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.


  PREPARED BY

  Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  garyp@alaweb.com
  Phone:  334-222-5327

  John Wallace  (Eastern North Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Western
                 Gulf of Mexico)
  E-mail:  dosidicus@aol.com

  Kevin Boyle  (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
                China Sea)
  E-mail:  newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com

  Simon Clarke  (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
  E-mail:  simon_clarke@iprimus.com.au

  *************************************************************************
  *************************************************************************

Document: summ0210.htm
Updated: 27th December 2006

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