[Index]
Tropical Cyclone KELI
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone KELI [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WHPS21 PHNC 970609 11:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 091100Z JUN 97//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.8S4 172.7W7 TO 7.9S6 176.9W3
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090932Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 7.2S9 174.0W2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 101100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 970610 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- 9.0S9 177.5W0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0S9 177.5W0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 9.6S5 179.3W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 10.0S1 179.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 10.2S3 177.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 10.1S2 176.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION 9.2S1 178.0W6
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 (DTG 101351Z1) AND 110300Z5 (DTG
110151Z9). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN
091000Z JUN 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WHPS21 PHNC
091100). TROPICAL STORM 38P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND
CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS. MAX SEAS AT
100000Z ARE 14 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 970610 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) WARNING NR 02
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- 10.2S3 178.7W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S3 178.7W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 11.1S3 179.7W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 12.0S3 179.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 12.9S2 178.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 13.9S3 177.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
---
REMARKS:
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 (DTG 110153Z1) AND 111500Z8 (DTG
111353Z4). MAX SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI)
ARE 18 FEET. REFER TO WHPN31 PHNC FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
STORM BLANCA (02E). THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AND WILL BE UPDATED EVERY 12 HOURS.//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 970611 03:00z CORRECTED
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) WARNING NR 003A
CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- 11.0S2 179.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 179.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 11.8S0 178.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 12.7S0 177.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 13.8S2 176.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 15.3S9 176.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
THIS CORRECTION ISSUED TO ADD PASSING/COORDINATION INFORMATION
FOR JTWC AND ALL MESSAGE ADDRESSEES.
110300Z5 POSITION 11.2S4 179.4E1 NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 (DTG
111351Z2) AND 120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0). KELI CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHWESTERLY BUT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATER IN
THE PERIOD. ORGANIZATION AND OUTFLOW ARE GOOD. EXPECT SLOW BUT
STEADY INTENSIFICATION. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY
NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST/JTWC GU UNDER THE MANOP WTPS31 PGTW.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970611 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- 10.5S6 178.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 178.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 10.8S9 177.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 11.9S1 176.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 13.8S2 175.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 16.1S8 176.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION 10.6S7 178.2E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
111132Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII
ARE BASED ON 110850Z SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. KELI IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TURNING SOUTH. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PLACE THIS SYSTEM
IN STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) IS NEARING PEAK INTENSITY AND
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING WITHIN 24 HOURS AS
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASE THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ABOVE THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6
(DTG 120153Z2) AND 121500Z9 (DTG 121353Z5). THIS IS THE
FIRST WARNING ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU).//
=========================================================================
warning 005 not available
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970612 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- 11.3S5 179.0W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 179.0W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 12.8S1 177.4W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 14.7S2 175.6W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 18.2S1 173.0W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 21.2S5 169.3W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION 11.7S9 178.6W2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO ITS PREVIOUS SLOW MOVEMENT KEEPING
IT IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 25 FEET. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). NEXT WARNING
WILL BE ISSUED BY NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI (SEE
WHPS31 PHNC).//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 970613 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- 12.8S1 177.1W6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 177.1W6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 15.3S9 175.1W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 18.6S5 172.1W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 21.5S8 167.6W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 24.1S7 162.4W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION 13.4S8 176.6W0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SHE CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK AT AN ACCELERATED PACE. TC 38P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND UNDERGOES VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 23 FT. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND
140300Z8. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC
METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI).//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 970613 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- 15.0S6 175.5W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 175.5W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 16.8S5 174.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 19.0S0 171.8W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 22.2S6 168.2W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 26.3S1 163.1W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION 15.4S0 175.1W4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 9
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS,
BUT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ONCE AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS IT BEGINS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TC 38P
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GAIN LATITUDE DUE TO A PASSING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
TC 38P IS EXPERIENCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON 122239Z9 SCATTEROMETER
PASS AND BY SYNOPTIC DATA FROM PAGO PAGO (WMO 91765) AND
FALEOLO AIRPORT (WMO 91758). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131200Z7 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 (DTG 140153Z4)
AND 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7).//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 970614 03:00z CORRECTED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) WARNING NR 009A
CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- 16.0S7 173.2W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 173.2W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 18.1S0 170.1W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 20.6S8 166.5W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 22.2S6 161.4W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION 16.5S2 172.4W4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) CONTINUES ALONG A SOUTHEAST
TRACK TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. IT IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 AND 150300Z9. THIS CORRECTION ISSUED TO
CORRECT MANOP.//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 970614 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- 16.2S9 170.8W6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 170.8W6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 18.0S9 166.8W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 20.8S0 162.8W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 23.2S7 158.2W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION 16.6S3 169.8W4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) CONTINUES ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK. SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE AND WEAKEN AS IT GAINS
LATITUDE AND UNDERGOES STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 18 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 970615 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- 19.0S0 166.4W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 166.4W7
---
FORECAST:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 19.7S7 161.3W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION 19.2S2 165.1W3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 38P (KELI) HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL
HARBOR HAWAII. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 18
FEET.//
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Document: keli.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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