[Index]
Tropical Cyclone JUNE
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone JUNE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTPS21 PGTW 970502 04:00z CORRECTED
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 020351Z MAY 97
CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6S8
171.5E4 TO 17.8S6 172.8E8 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
012330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S8 171.7E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT
06 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: THIS SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH HAS SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHEAR HAS LESSENED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF SATELLITE ANALYSIS (DVORAK T1.0) AND CLOUD
DRIFT DERIVED WINDS.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 030400Z8. CORRECTION ISSUED TO
CORRECT BULLETIN HEADER.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970502 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST
GU 020351Z MAY 97
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 020400 )
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- 12.3S6 171.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 171.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 13.5S9 171.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 14.7S2 171.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 15.5S1 170.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 16.3S0 169.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION 12.6S9 171.7E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 6
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
IT FOLLOWS THE DOMINANT RIDGE EASTERLY STEERING PATTERN.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE
WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF INTENSE UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 (DTG 021951Z8) AND
030900Z2 (DTG 030751Z6). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 020351Z MAY 97 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 020400 )//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970502 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- 13.3S7 173.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 173.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 14.3S8 173.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 15.4S0 173.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 16.9S6 172.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 18.4S3 171.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION 13.6S0 173.1E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 05 KNOTS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A 021730Z3 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS
(DVORAK T3.0). WE EXPECT TC 35P TO INTENSIFY TO 55 KNOTS
WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A WEAKENING
TREND AS IT BEGINS TO GET SHEARED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES. MOVEMENT IS CURRENTLY SLOW DUE TO THE
EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND BURST FEEDING INTO TC 35P AS
WELL AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR
40S4 170E8. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST, WE EXPECT TC 35P TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS A BREAK
INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALL OF OUR DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WHILE CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
TAKE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 (DTG 030751Z6) AND 032100Z6 (DTG
031951Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970503 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- 14.0S5 175.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 175.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 14.8S3 177.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 15.7S3 178.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 16.8S5 179.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 18.2S1 179.6W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION 14.2S7 176.0E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN. THE SYSTEM
HAS IMPROVED ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC DATA AND 021130Z7 SCATTEROMETER
DATA. TC 35P (JUNE) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE 24-HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
WEAKENING AFTER THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 (DTG 031951Z9)
AND 040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970503 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- 14.3S8 176.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 176.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 15.0S6 176.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 15.8S4 177.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 16.6S3 178.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 17.6S4 178.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 205 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 19.2S2 179.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 205 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION 14.5S0 176.2E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 5
KNOTS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
SYNOPTIC DATA AND THE PREVIOUS WARNING WHICH USED
SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GAIN
LATITUDE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A STRONGER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY SIX
HOURS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6
(DTG 031951Z9), 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1), 040900Z3 (DTG
040751Z7) AND 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970503 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- 15.1S7 176.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 176.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 16.2S9 176.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 17.3S1 176.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 18.3S2 177.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 19.0S0 177.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 205 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 19.9S9 177.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION 15.4S0 176.1E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF SYNOPTIC DATA AND 031735Z SATELLITE-BASED MICROWAVE
(SSM/I) DATA ANALYSIS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GAIN LATITUDE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE
TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW BY 48 HOURS AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 31800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1), 040900Z3 (DTG
040751Z7), 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4) AND 042100Z7
(DTG 041951Z0).//
=========================================================================
warning 006 not available
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970504 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- 16.2S9 176.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 176.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 17.5S3 177.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 18.9S8 178.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 19.9S9 178.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.9S1 178.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 205 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 22.7S1 179.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION 16.5S2 177.1E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 35P (JUNE) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE
SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN THE 48- AND THE
72-HOUR FORECAST POSITION CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4), 042100Z7 (DTG
041951Z0), 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2) AND 050900Z4 (DTG
050751Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970504 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- 16.4S1 177.5E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION
OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 177.5E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 17.1S9 178.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 18.0S9 179.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 18.8S7 179.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 19.7S7 179.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 21.1S4 178.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION 16.6S3 177.7E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
8 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA FROM YASAWA
(WMO 91660). INFRARED SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SHEARING DUE TO STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS IT GAINS LATITUDE AND REMAINS
IN A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 48
HOURS, TC 35P (JUNE) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TRACK
WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE MID AND
SHALLOW LAYER EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z7 (DTG 041951Z0), 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2),
050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8) AND 051500Z1 (DTG
051351Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970504 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 009 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- 16.4S1 177.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 177.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 16.9S6 177.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 17.7S5 177.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.7S6 177.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 20.0S2 176.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION 16.5S2 177.0E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED AND
NOW DISPLAYS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THEREFORE, THIS
IS A RELOCATED WARNING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD, THEN MOVE WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE
SHALLOW LAYER EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2), 050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8),
051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5) AND 052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970505 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- 16.8S5 176.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 176.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 17.4S2 176.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 18.0S9 175.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 18.6S5 174.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION 17.0S8 176.7E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN. THE SYSTEM
IS BEING WEAKENED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 35P CURRENTLY DISPLAYS A TOTALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED 170 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. WARNING INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN T3.0 (45 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW.
TC 35P (JUNE) IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATED BY THE 36-HOUR
FORECAST POSITION AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE WEAKENED
BY SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8), 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5),
052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1) AND 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970505 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- 17.7S5 176.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 176.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 18.5S4 176.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 19.3S3 175.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION 17.9S7 176.5E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN. THE SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 35P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AND TO BE
DISSIPATED BY THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 15 FEET. WARNINGS
WILL BE ISSUED EVERY 12 HOURS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT
WARNING AT 052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970505 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- 18.4S3 175.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 175.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.6S5 173.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION 18.5S4 174.5E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED
OVER 200 NM AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051800Z IS 15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
|
Document: june.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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