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Tropical Cyclone GAVIN
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
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Tropical Cyclone GAVIN [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTPS21 PGTW 970303 03:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 030251Z MAR 97//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1S0
173.1E2 TO 11.8S0 175.4E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
022330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.5S4 173.4E5. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES DEVELOPING IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE NEW HEBRIDES
ISLANDS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED, AND
SIGNIFICANT CROSS-EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE OBSERVED IN THE SAME SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS VISIBLE IN ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ABOVE THIS SYSTEM.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 040300Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970303 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- 9.9S8 172.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S8 172.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 10.8S9 172.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 11.6S8 173.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 12.5S8 173.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 13.4S8 174.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 14.8S3 175.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION 10.1S2 172.6E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (TC 31P) HAS FORMED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE NEW HEBRIDES AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 05 KNOTS.
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 022233Z SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETRY DATA. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
031730Z SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED
ON THE SAME SCATTEROMETRY DATA AS WELL AS CLIMATOLOGY FOR
A LARGER THAN AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
31P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS, THEN INTENSIFY MORE SLOWLY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY STRONG WIND SHEAR. TC 31P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD
DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z9 (DTG031351Z3), 032100Z6 (DTG
031951Z9), 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1), AND 040900Z3 (DTG
040751Z7). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 030251Z MAR 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 030300Z).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970303 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- 9.6S5 173.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S5 173.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 9.8S7 173.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 10.2S3 174.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 10.9S0 174.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 11.7S9 175.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 13.4S8 176.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION 9.6S5 173.3E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (TC 31P) IS ESSENTIALLY QUASI-
STATIONARY NORTHEAST OF THE NEW HEBRIDES. SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS (DVORAK T2.0) AS WELL AS A
022233Z2 SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWING 35 KNOTS ON THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE TC 31P. WE EXPECT TC 13P TO INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 31P IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD ON
A CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACK. ALTHOUGH OUR PRIMARY DYNAMCAL
GUIDANCE IS HAVING DIFFICULTY HANDLING THIS SYSTEM, OUR
SECONDARY DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ALL STATISTICAL
AND CLIMATOLOGICAL AIDS AGREE WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FORECAST TRACK. NONE OF OUR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANY COMPONENT OF WESTWARD MOTION AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGER
THAN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
032100Z6 (DTG 031751Z7) AND 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970303 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- 9.6S5 173.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S5 173.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 9.8S7 174.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 10.3S4 174.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 11.0S2 174.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 11.9S1 175.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 14.1S6 176.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION 9.6S5 173.6E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (TC 31P) REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY
NORTHEAST OF THE NEW HEBRIDES AS IT CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS TREND IS EVIDENT IN THE 031730Z4
SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSIS (DVORAK T2.5, UP FROM THE
T2.0 FROM 031130Z8). CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THIS
LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS. TC 31P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND THEN TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. THIS FORECASTED TRACK MIRRORS CLIMATOLOGY AND
IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH OUR SECONDARY DYNAMIC GUIDANCE.
NONE OF OUR GUIDANCE (DYNAMICAL, STATISTICAL, OR
CLIMATOLOGICAL) INDICATES A WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED
ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGER THAN AVERAGE SIZED TROPICAL
CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1) AND
040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970304 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 004 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- 9.9S8 173.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S8 173.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 10.3S4 173.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 11.0S2 174.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 11.6S8 174.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 12.4S7 175.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 14.0S5 176.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION 10.0S1 173.5E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS. THIS WARNING IS RELOCATED BASED ON 032330Z
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
USING 032300Z AND 032330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GAVIN IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW TROPICAL
CYCLONE 31P TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STEERING FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD KEEP GAVIN MOVING GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS
11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7),
041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4), 042100Z7 (DTG 041951Z0) AND
050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970304 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- 9.9S8 173.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S8 173.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 10.3S4 174.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 10.9S0 175.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 11.5S7 175.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 12.3S6 176.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 13.6S0 177.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION 10.0S1 174.1E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
040530Z VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT
AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A
LARGER THAN AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. GAVIN IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY MORE SLOWLY THAN FORECASTED EARLIER DUE TO
STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GAVIN IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4), 042100Z7 (DTG 041951Z0),
050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2) AND 050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970304 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- 9.9S8 174.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S8 174.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 10.2S3 176.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 11.2S4 177.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 12.6S9 177.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 14.0S5 177.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.6S3 176.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION 10.0S1 175.2E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS. IT HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED DIRECTLY ON
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS AS OF
04/1130Z WHICH INDICATED 55 KNOT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS (DVORAK T3.5). POSITION AT WARNING TIME IS BASED
ON A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGER (SSM/I) DATA. OUR ANALYSIS OF THE WIND
RADII OF THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO RECENT SSM/I DATA. THE SYSTEM HAS
NOT YET BECOME MATURE ENOUGH FOR 35 KNOT WINDS TO BE
RELIABLE ON SSM/I, BUT AN ACCURATE 30 KNOT WIND STRUCTURE
WAS ANALYZED WHICH HAD MINIMAL RAIN CONTAMINATION, AND
OUR 35 KNOT RADII IS INFERRED FROM THE 30 KNOT STRUCTURE.
NO RECENT SCATTEROMETRY WAS AVAILABLE ON THIS SYSTEM. TC
31P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AND SLOWLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 (DTG 041951Z0), 050300Z8 (DTG
050151Z2), 050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8) AND 051500Z1 (DTG
051351Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970304 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- 9.9S8 175.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S8 175.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 10.4S5 176.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 11.4S6 177.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 12.8S1 178.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 14.2S7 177.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 17.1S9 177.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION 10.0S1 175.8E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS. IT HAS INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 55 AND 65 KNOTS (DVORAK T3.5, NEARING A
DVORAK T4.0 AT WARNING TIME). OTHER THAN THE CONTINUED
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE EXPECT TC 31P TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING AND TURN TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z3 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 (DTG
050151Z2), 050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8), 051500Z1 (DTG
051351Z5) AND 052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970305 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- 9.7S6 176.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S6 176.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 10.2S3 178.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 11.1S3 178.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 12.3S6 179.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 13.9S3 179.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.1S9 179.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER
WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER
WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION 9.8S7 177.0E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
042330Z SATELLITE IMAGERY. GAVIN HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
AN EYE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN MAINTAIN ABOUT THE SAME INTENSITY AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
31P IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AS IT
ENCOUNTERS FLOW AROUND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z
IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8),
051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5), 052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1) AND
060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970305 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- 10.3S4 177.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S4 177.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 11.7S9 179.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 13.3S7 179.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 14.9S4 179.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.5S2 179.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 19.5S5 179.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION 10.6S7 178.3E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 05/0530 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. GAVIN HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THAT TREND FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS, THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST
REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING FOR THE FORECAST TRACK. GAVIN
IS STILL FORECAST TO TURN SOUTH IN STEERING FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN MAINTAIN GENERAL SOUTHWARD
MOTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5), 052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1),
060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3) AND 060900Z5 (DTG 060751Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970305 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- 10.5S6 178.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 178.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 11.8S0 179.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 13.4S8 180.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 15.0S6 180.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.6S3 179.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION 10.8S9 179.0E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) IS MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. IT HAS CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. OUR WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED DIRECTLY ON ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATION 100 KNOT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS (DVORAK T5.5). TC 31P HAS A VERY SMALL
EYE, APPROXIMATELY 5 NM IN DIAMETER. METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE TC 31P TURNS TOWARD THE
FIJI ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z8 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 (DTG
060151Z3) AND 061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970306 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- 12.5S8 179.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 179.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 14.6S1 179.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.6S3 179.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 18.5S4 179.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 20.3S5 179.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION 13.0S4 179.6E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC
OCEAN. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115 KNOTS (DVORAK 6.0). MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE RESTRICTED TO THE EYEWALL REGION (EYE DIAMETER
IS APPROX 20 NM). FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE FIJI ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060000Z IS 28 FEET. REFER TO WWPW 30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970306 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- 14.7S2 179.8W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 179.8W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 17.2S0 179.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.7S7 179.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 22.4S8 178.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 25.1S8 177.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION 15.3S9 179.9W6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN)IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE
FIJI ISLANDS, TRACKING SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS. TC 31P HAS
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 31P IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CURRENT AND FORECASTED WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO AN AFGWC MICROWAVE IMAGERY
ANALYSIS AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4) AND 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970307 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- 16.8S5 178.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 178.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.0S0 176.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 21.5S8 176.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 24.4S0 175.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 27.9S8 175.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION 17.4S2 177.7E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) IS MOVING AT 12 KNOTS
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 60NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NANDI, FIJI. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A 28NM EYE. TC 31P IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN MOST PART OF FIJI AND CONTINUE IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 28 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7) AND
080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P
(JUSTIN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970307 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- 18.4S3 176.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 176.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 20.5S7 174.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 23.3S8 174.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 26.6S4 174.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 30.1S4 174.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION 18.9S8 175.7E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) HAS JUST SLIPPED TO THE WEST
OF NANDI, FIJI. CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT WARNING
POSITION IS HIGH BASED ON SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM NANJI, A
RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN THE ENHANCED INFRARED, AND A
070608Z1 MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASS. WE EXPECT TC 31P TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TO TAKE A SLIGHT TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1
(DTG 080151Z5) AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970308 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- 18.9S8 175.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 175.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 20.0S2 175.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 22.4S8 175.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 26.0S8 175.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 29.9S0 175.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION 19.2S2 175.6E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 072330Z VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND 080000Z SURFACE WIND REPORTS FROM NANDI,
FIJI (WMO 91680). TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN STEERING FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
ITS WEST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ACCORDINGLY, A GENERAL MOTION TO THE
SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. GAVIN IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AS STEERING FLOW STRENGTHENS AND
WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 (DTG
081351Z8) AND 090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970308 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- 20.0S2 176.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 176.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 21.5S8 177.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 23.9S4 177.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 26.8S6 177.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 30.0S3 178.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION 20.4S6 176.5E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AND NOW DISPLAYS A 15 NM
DIAMETER CLOUD-FILLED, RAGGED EYE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GAIN LATITUDE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD WITHIN A TROUGH AXIS DUE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE-INDUCED
RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF TC 31P (GAVIN). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6) AND 091500Z5 (DTG
091351Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970309 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- 22.3S7 176.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S7 176.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 25.3S0 177.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 27.7S6 178.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 29.9S0 178.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 32.0S5 177.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION 23.1S6 177.1E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 13
KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
082330Z VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND AN 081800Z SHIP
REPORT. GAVIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AND
HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SOUTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AS TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P REMAINS IN STEERING
FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 090000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 (DTG
091351Z9) AND 100300Z4 (DTG 100151Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970309 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- 25.1S8 177.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S8 177.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 27.7S6 177.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 29.8S9 177.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 31.5S9 176.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 33.2S8 176.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION 25.8S5 177.0E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT
14 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD DUE TO NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. TC 31P (GAVIN)
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A HIGHER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO
START TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITHIN 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 (DTG 100151Z8) AND
101500Z7 (DTG 101351Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P
(JUSTIN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970310 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- 27.6S5 176.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6S5 176.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 30.2S5 175.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 32.5S0 176.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 34.9S6 177.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
C HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 37.5S5 178.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS0
;Q
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION 28.3S3 176.1E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
092330Z VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT
WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED USING A SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORT.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING.
GAVIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GAVIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 (DTG 101351Z1) AND
110300Z5 (DTG 110151Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P
(JUSTIN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970310 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASS RTVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- 29.9S0 176.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
320 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9S0 176.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 32.3S8 176.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 34.5S2 176.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 36.5S4 176.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 38.4S5 177.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
330 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION 30.5S8 176.6E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (F?RHNS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS HIGH PRDSRURE
BTHLDR DN THD BJTT?FEST. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
BASED ON AN OLDER 092200Z SCATTEROMETER PASS AND
AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL NEAR 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5
(DTG 110151Z9) AND 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970311 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- 33.0S6 176.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
310 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 33.0S6 176.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 35.8S6 175.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
280 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 38.4S5 175.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 41.1S6 174.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 44.4S2 176.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION 33.7S3 175.9E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) IS CURRENTLY AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION AHEAD
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN IN-HOUSE SATELLITE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE FOR
SYSTEMS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS WELL AS
SHIP REPORTS IN THE AREA. WE EXPECT TC 31P TO CONTINUE IN
A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110000Z2 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 (DTG
111351Z2) AND 120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970311 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- 34.1S8 176.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
310 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1S8 176.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 35.6S4 177.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION 34.5S2 176.8E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS. IT IS TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM,
AND TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS
26 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970312 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- 34.3S0 179.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
230 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 34.3S0 179.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 34.5S2 178.9W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION 34.4S1 179.5E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) HAS ABOUT FINISHED ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY (111144Z2)
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SIGNIFICANT WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT AND IS THE BASIS FOR OUR WARNING INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THIS WARNING INTENSITY IS AN INCREASE
FROM OUR PREVIOUS WARNING, IT DOES NOT REFLECT TC 31P
INTENSIFYING, RATHER THE AVAILABILITY OF NEW DATA. TC 31P
IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN
12 HOURS BUT SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL WEATHER SYSTEM
BEYOND THAT POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
120000Z3 IS 26 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER NAVPACMETOCCEN
WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
|
Document: gavin.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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